Wednesday, December 29, 2010

A BREAK OUT ??

TODAY WAS A BIG POSITIVE DAY FOR THE MARKETS.

hdfc bank proved to be the LEADER of this upside rally ,which can turn out to be the rally to complete double bottom pattern.

till yesterday it was TO BE or NOT TO BE....BESIDES DULL AND SIDEWAYS movement in indices it was intraday chart of hdfc bank that started giving lot of clues about what was coming in the broader market.

here are three different periods charts of HDFC BANK for last few days with my SYSTEM arrows.....
5 min /15 min /60 min charts.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

daily TECHNI VIEW

Sensex:
In the early morning trades bullishness was expected sensex made a high of 20190 our level of importance was 20217 it was very much near and as we said in the morning from this are we expect a correction and after making a high of 20190 sensex drifted down to end in negative.
A close below 19932 today will start some more down side correction.
More or less it was quite low volume affair and that happens when the adx on daily chart enters below 20-22 levels, such low level of adx clearly indicates loss of momentum on either side.

Nifty :
nifty has been facing very very strong resistance at 6028 in initial bullishness yesterday it went above it but could not sustain for long and again closed below 6028.
It has been last five sessions since nifty has closed near 6000 but failed to close above 6028 it has been clearly being advised from here that for the double bottom pattern to succeed nifty need to close above 6028-6088 but its failure to do so will attract slow but gradual selling pressure.

Monday, December 27, 2010

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

General technical view :
As we all know technical analysis is a study of chart to identify turning points in markets.since October 2010 we have been suggesting that there are evidences of major top in our markets.
Now after reaching our first targets of around 19000 and 5700 for sensex and nifty respectively markets have gone in to a sideways phase since last 5 weeks we had identified a turning points of a short term up move by anticipating a double bottom pattern on daily charts but it is still unclear weather this double bottom pattern will lead markets to much higher levels.
Generally in a big bull markets such down move like we saw in November can easily turn out to be a corrective phase only but this time around the way small cap ,mid cap stocks ,psu stocks ,banking stocks ,power stocks have behaved in past one and a half months it seems that there are all chances of a larger correction but because of continued bull run in it stocks and pharma stocks sensex and nifty does not have the severity in fall.
So despite weakness in many sector indices unless sensex and nifty closes below their November lows we can not presume that thay have entered a large corrective phase.
This week being last week that ends a month,a quarter and also a year will have a crucial closing .
Nifty :
As we study  weekly chart of nifty it is quite evident that nifty has taken support at 8-13-21 week emas and as on weekly close it has entered back into the expanding structure on weekly charts this is very positive sign. The last weeks 1% upmove can trigger a break out of congestion zone  between 5690-6069 if it closes this week above 6069 but since 6088 is the 61.8% retracement level of the last major a close above 6088 can trigger an upmove upto 6197 atleast . this view is wee supported by the formation of double bottom pattern on daily charts.
Failure to close above 6088 or if nifty reaches 6197 and than face severe selling pressure it could be a lower top formation on weekly charts so for upside we have to watch 6088 and 6197 and set our trading strategy accordingly.
Sensex :
For sensex the corresponding levels to watch for this week are 20217-20280 above which there will be a bigger and faster upmove possible as once sensex crosses these levels there will be huge short covering and failure cross these levels and a close below 30321 will confirm a lower top on weekly charts for sensex.
We have to give both views this week because sensex has been a range since past five weeks so a close above these levels sensex will have bigger move on either side.
Bank nifty : daily chart.
Since banks were leading the last bull run we feel that a study of bank nifty at this important juncture when this week will end a month a quarter and a year is crucial.As shown on the chart with our earlier comments bank nifty has clearly formed a lower top lower bottom pattern on daily charts so now the falling trendline is an important resistance.
And on weekly chart of bank nifty as we have put our comments on chart the emas on bank nifty which generated strong buy calls in early 2009 are on the verge of giving sell cross if bank nifty can not give a significant upmove this week this sell cross will have significant bearish implications for medium term.
And even if sensex and nifty gets an upmove for sometime unless bank nifty have stronger upmove the rise in general markets will not sustain for long.



Friday, December 24, 2010

A MIRACLE ON Fifteen MINUTE CHARTS

rcom 15 min chart with my system....add bhoom2tika  in yahoo for such wonderful calls

NEXT WEEK WILL DECIDE TREND FOR MEDIUM TERM TREND

Sensex :
Sensex is now entering a very important phase as far as its short term daily chart is concerned and in our opinion it can now enter a  bullish phase only in two conditions one is the close above 20217 -20300 immediately in a day or two and second possibility will be a strong bounce back after its stochastics indicator nears the oversold zone till than sensex must remain above 19554 on closing basis.
But after detailed study of other indices like bse-power,bse-reality,bse-bankex,bse-psu,bse-cgs,bse-100 which are making some sort of distribution patterns after the heavy sell off in November-2010 we feel that sensex may remain sideways for few more days and then after breaking 19554-19321 it may crash further.
In our opinion this area of 19554-19321 is a trend decider zone for medium term for sensex.
Nifty:
For nifty too a few days and especially next week will be very crucial.
So many time charts patterns develops at such crucial time like this as next week will be settlement end time ,it will be month end and the December quarter end too so next week close will have its impact on all time frame charts and in such a time nifty on eod charts is placed from where it can move fast in either direction in a big way.
Bullish possibilities are intact till 5854 is held on closing basis and there will be severe bear phase again if after a brief correction in 2-3 days nifty can not move up in a big way and cross 6028-6088.


Thursday, December 23, 2010

LEVELS TO WATCH

CHART SPEAKS.
PROBABILITIES WEIGH MORE ON THE DOWN SIDE, BUT NEXT WEEKS CLOSE WILL BE
VERY VERY CRUCIAL.

LEVELS TO WATCH


in yesterdays conference call we mentioned about the strength in the on going rally and possibility of a double bottom pattern break out but we still consider it strongly that before a trader/short term investor decides to invest he will have to be very selective in stocks to invest .
stochastics being in overbought zone will play its role for a few more days and if the coming downside corrective remains slow than it will be a good short term buying opportunity but there is another possibility emerging on the charts and that is a possible sideways move in a narrow range of 20217 and 19500 for a few more days.
We mentioned here a few days back that we have to watch 20056-20088 level on closing basis and sensex made a high of 20115 yesterday but failed to close there and closed below 20056 so expect more sideways move in the markets.



Nifty :
For nifty our important level to watch on closing base for more upside possibilities was 6028 yesterday morning nifty made a high of 6023 but failed to close above 6028 there will be some more bearishness in nifty if trades below 5958 today and expect a few more days sideways move below important resistance levels and if the correction remains slow than nifty may again attempt to cross recent highs but for double bottom pattern to complete nifty needs a close above 6028-6088.


Wednesday, December 22, 2010

POSITIONAL TRADES IN NIFTY OPTIONS WITH MY SYSTEM

CHARTS SPEAKS FOR THEMSELVES :

NIFTY 6000 PUT INTRADAY 5 MIN CHART WITH SYSTEM SIGNALS :


NIFTY 6000 PUT HOURLY CHART WITH SYSTEM SIGNALS FROM 30-11-10

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

AWAIT A BIG GAP AT OPEN ANY DAY

Sensex:
As mentioned yesterday it was a volatile day but at the close it was nothing noticeable except that sensex found resistance at 20006 and this was one of our exact resistance level.
This area is proving tough for bulls and banking stocks got hammered even today in late afternoon trades ,so resistance area and weakness in banks these two are major hurdles in coming days for sensex.in any case it will be decisive for bears if and only if sensex can close below 19540 on any day and a close above 20056 can prove good for bulls so the range is becoming smaller now.
The overbought stochastics on daily chart is a matter of concern for bulls.

We mentioned here one important resistance level for nifty was 5985 nifty made an exact high of 5985 and found some heavy selling pressure from there .
Here again as mentioned earlier a good close above 6028-6088 will prove bullish and now a close below 5855 will prove good for bears although it is entirely possible that the sideways move may continue for one or two days more and than a gap opening will decide the future course of movement.
The roc on daily chart is in sell mode and it is a clear concern for bulls

Monday, December 20, 2010

RESISTANCE WORKS

IN THE MORNING I SAID THIS ABOUT SENSEX

Looking at Daily chart for SENSEX 19321 has now become a good and solid support and as mentioned earlier 20001-20056 zone is the major hurdle and for first two days if the rise from lows started on Thursday continues then 19967 will be an important 78.2% retracement level to watch.


TODAYS SENSEX HIGH IS 20006.

THE WEEK AHEAD

We had earlier discussed about Technical probabilities of different Sector Indices and BSE IT and BSE PHARMA were two sectors were considered and strong with some initial weakness appearing on charts.

But both these indices proved much stronger and they are in fact responsible for the strength in SENSEX and NIFTY otherwise looking at value erosion in MID CAP ,SMALL CAP , BANKING, PSU AND REALITY STOCKS the SENSEX and NIFTY would have been trading more than 10% lower than their present levels.

Due to the Double Bottom possibilities in SENSEX and NIFTY, there are chances of both of them moving upwards in coming days but as shown in this chart of BSE National Index after a very sharp fall the rise seems corrective only and may be forming a Triangle which is bearish after some sideways movement. So the picture for the broader market is of continued bearishness for the short and medium term future.
 SENSEX

For the third week in a row SENSEX is now trading in a comparatively small range of 1000 points in between 20200-19070. It is entirely possible that overall this range bound movement may continue for one or more weeks but in our opinion the future course will be decided within first two days of the coming week.

There are two reasons for this assumption, first is the overhead resistance zone which is coming nearby around 20000 and the second is the seemingly Double Bottom pattern in SENSEX and NIFTY chart.

Looking at Daily chart for SENSEX 19321 has now become a good and solid support and as mentioned earlier 20001-20056 zone is the major hurdle and for first two days if the rise from lows started on Thursday continues then 19967 will be an important 78.2% retracement level to watch.

All in all in first 2-3 days of the coming week SENSEX will close above 20056 if the Double Bottom pattern has to work and if it faces resistance at the upper zone than it will break 19321 so watches this range for first few days on closing basis.
NIFTY

Last three days highs are at 38.2% Retracement level of the entire fall.Next major 50% level is 6016 and a close above 6028-6088(previous highs) will confirm Double Bottom pattern.
NIFTY has been in a trading range of 5700-6070 and looking at the Weekly charts it will be tough to break the range this week but the DOUBLE BOTTOM pattern can change the probabilities as NIFTY will have a much higher Target once it completes the Double Bottom pattern on the other hand if the resistance levels works and NIFTY closes below 5855 which is Thursdays close we will have a dull and sideway market with clear negative bias.

Friday, December 17, 2010

A DOUBLE BOTTOM OR A TRIANGLE ?

I THINK LAST THURSDAYS MOVE HAVE AGAIN PERHAPS SHIFTED THE BALANCE A LITTLE BIT TOWARDS BULLS AND TOWARDS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DOUBLE  BOTTOM BUT STILL THE LEVELS OF 20056 AND 6028 REMAINS THE  PATTERN COMPLETION LEVELS .
AND there may be a  TRIANGULAR DEVELOPMENT ON INTRADAY CHARTS.
BUT BY TUESDAY THE PICTURE SHOULD BE CLEARER.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

EXIT LONGS : IF DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERN CAN NOT COMPLETE, A BIG CRASH COMING

MY SYSTEM ON BANK NIFTY HOURLY CHART IS SHOWN ABOVE.

NOW, THIS IS WHAT I WROTE OVER HERE ON  14TH OCTOBER 2010
2) 200 day ema
As shown in the sensex chart, the sensex has shown tendency to test  the all important 200 day ema, TWICE  and after taking support for two times in a row (resistance in down trend),it is seen to break the 200 dema.
In our case, sensex recently tasted the 200 dema in early feb-2010 and than in late may-2010,may be the time is due for the history to repeat itself.
TODAY I AM POSTING A SENSEX CHART WITH THE 200 DAY EMA FOR FURTHER CLARIFICATION.



I HAD GIVEN MANY SELL CALLS YESTERDAY  ,THERE WERE FEW STOPLOSSES INITIALLY BUT TWO OF THEM WHICH WORKED GREAT WERE LIC H FINANCE AND ICICI BANK...
POSTING  INTRADAY CHARTS OF BOTH OF THEM



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Tuesday, December 14, 2010

CRUCIAL TREND DECIDER LEVELS ESTABLISHED

YESTREDAYS LOWS IN SENSEX  19321 AND 5795 IN NIFTY IS NOW TREND DECIDER LEVEL FOR THE WHOLE MONTH OF DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY 2011,UPSIDES OPEN IF THESE LOWS ARE SUSTAINED AND EXPECT HUGE PANIC IF SENSEX /NIFTY CLOSES BELOW THESE LEVELS.


Yesterdays low in sensex which is 19321 now becomes a powerful trend decider level for a few days and a continued upmove above 19321 will keep the double bottom possibilities open and a close below 19321 on any day in one or two weeks will play havoc amongst bulls.
The short term stochastics is now turning up from oversold zone and the ema band as shown in sensex charts placed in between 19704-19851 is the area to watch today and tomorrow one must remember that for completion of double bottom pattern we need a close above 20088 and the first step in that direction has been taken as sensex closed above Fridays high.

Nifty too bounced back from supports in yesterdays panic selling  . nifty touched 89 day ema  and once again closed above it which is a very good sign in support to the upmove the rsi  is turning up on daily charts and has given a buy cross.
Yesterdays nifty low of 5795 will be the trend decider level perhaps for the whole month of December now and a sustained upmove above it will keep double bottom scenario open and a close below 5795 on  
any day in future will open bigger downfall





Sunday, December 12, 2010

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

SENSEX AND NIFTY LAST WEEK:
At the beginning of the week we said that there is a lot of confusion in doing analysis of  daily and weekly charts but we expected a downside correction and from tuesday onwards as we found some technical evidences appearing on charts we confirmed that a downside move is coming .
For sensex our strong resistance level was 20056 and than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level which was around 20200 and sensex made a high of 20217 but could not close any day above 20056 showing weakness.
On the last day of the we wrote this in our daily technical view “Sensex  is now on the verge of forming a lower bottom if it breaks 18954 yesterday it a low of and closed at 19242 now 19215 is 78.2% of the last rise  it will be very very crucial to watch if there are still any evidence of sensex trying  to make a double bottom kind of reversal pattern around this level “
On Friday sensex made a low of 19074 but recovered almost 500 points from low and closed at 19508 the structure on daily charts actually now looks as a double bottom around 19000 .
As for nifty 6021 proved a strong hurdle and as we mentioned this on last Friday “The stochastics is now entering oversold zone so it will be crucial to watch how nifty behaves around 5723/5690 but once below them 5595-5565 are next target for nifty”
Nifty made a low of 5721 our mentioned level to watch nifty was 5723 and now for nifty also 5700 around we can see a double bottom reversal pattern.
Sensex  view for the coming week :
Although confirmation of the supposed double bottom reversal pattern is far away at around 20056/20217 there will be some other resistances that sensex has to cross and close above.an intraday move above 19610/19641 and than a close on any day above 19777 will be the first signal of a move to confirm a double bottom pattern on daily charts roc of sensex is showing some strength and with stochastics on weekly charts in oversold zone the move can gather momentum if sensex will have a close above 19777 which is a 61.% retracement of the last weeks fall.
Nifty :
As shown in this weekly chart of nifty and as we have been suggesting very clearly and loudly that the price area around 5700 for nifty seems to the strong support area which consists of multiple supports and although three major sector index banking/small cap and mid cap confirmed the bear grip by completing lower top lower bottom on daily charts the nifty is yet to form a loer top.
Downside targets can now open only on a close below 5690 for nifty and upside targets can open on a close above 6088 and intra week nifty will show strength if it can close above 5878 and than a decisive close above 5935 could initiate huge short covering because such a close will most probably prove the double bottom although as per rules nifty need a close above 6028 to confirm the double bottom.
The range in nifty is in between 5700-6100 so on a confirmation of a double bottom we may have a target around 6350.nifty rsi 101210.pngnifty daily stoch 101210.pngnifty comments channel 6013 101210.png

Saturday, December 11, 2010

A MIRACLE ON Fifteen MINUTE CHARTS WITH NIFTY OPTIONS

TRADING OPTIONS IS VERY LUCRATIVE  AND IF YOU HAVE NIFTY TARGETS ON EITHER SIDE FOR VERY SHORT TERM THAN TRADING NEAREST OPTIONS ALSO CAN REWARD  A DAY TRADER WITH A VERY HANDSOME RETURN , BUT THERE ARE FEW CRITICAL ISSUES ONE OF THEM IS THE TIME DECAY ,IF THE NIFTY PREDICTION EVEN GETS DELAYED BY A FEW DAYS THE PRICE DECAY DUE TO TIME FACTOR EATS OUT MUCH OF YOUR PROFITS AND FOR DAY TRADERS PROFIT BOOKING IS IMPORTANT.

MY SYSTEM DOES HAVE SMART SOLUTIONS TO SUCH ISSUES.
ONE IS ITS EXIT AND THE OTHER IS ITS ABILITY TO CATCH BIG INTRADAY MOVES IN BOTH CALLS AND PUTS,,HERE IS A REALTIME EXAMPLE.


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Friday, December 10, 2010

A MAJOR TOP AND MY CONTRIBUTION

A MAJOR TOP WAS IDENTIFIED IN MOST CLEAR WORDS , FIRST THE HINT WITH SOME DEFINITE AND AUTHANTIC BUT INNOVATIVE TECHNICAL EVIDENCES EXACTLY TWO MONTHS BACK ON 11TH OCTOBER 2010 THE TIME SUGGESTED WAS MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND ESPECIALLY FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER WITH A SENSEX TARGET AT 21200 BOTH MATCHED WITH PRECISION.

FIRST SUPPORTS/ TARGETS WERE 19000/5700 AROUND ,WHICH WERE FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT AND VERY VERY CRUCIAL POSTING FROM ME ON MY BLOG CAME A LITTLE LATE BUT WAS VERY TIMELY IT WAS THIS ON 11TH NOVEMBER 2010


Thursday, November 11, 2010


all signs of a major top

investors are advised to be in cash by more than 70%, a weekly close below 5937 will most probably end the whole rally.

Thursday, December 9, 2010

technical view today

 i mentioned about trading range yesterday which was broken in the early morning so turned out to be a significantly bearish day.
 all our pre market sell calls worked as the downfall was well anticipated when we pointed out the flat and weakening rsi which actually was in a buy mode as on yesterday but today it has given a sell cross.
For today sensex is near to 50% retracement support level of the last leg of rise which is 19579 and its 89 day ema is at 19498 last and important support is 61.8% retracement which is at 19427.
So ideally if this fall is only a correction to the last upmove it must bounce back from these supports and give a decisive close in a day or two above 19876 to confirm a higher bottom on daily chart.

For nifty the expanding structure proved to be a much stronger resistance then for the sensex and nifty made an exact low at 5878 which was mentioned as support yesterday it is still their as support another important support/target for nifty is 5838 which is 61.8% retracement of the last rise and its 89 day ema is placed at 5861 so watch these levels as support.
The roc is bact below zero giving a sell call again and if there is no significant bounce back happens by this weak end we expect nifty to atleast touch previous lows around 5700 in an effort to make a double bottom around their.
For any meaning full upside now and thus to confirm any higher bottom formation nifty need to close above  5955 and 6001.

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

DAY TRADING MADE EASY ::WITH A WONDERFUL TRADING SYSTEM

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MY SYSTEM  HAS BEEN  GIVING PROFIT CONSISTANTLY...
TODAY nifty opened up with huge down gap..and see the result of my system

a range

There was a shooting star pattern on sensex chart yesterday and we said this candle pattern needs a downside follow up the follow up seemed to be there for the most part of the day lead by the selling in banking stocks but sensex bounced back  from 19824 still closed a few points down.
For three days in a row its been very sideways movement for sensex we need to have a decisive break of this range 20217-19824 on closing basis to decide short term trend.
Yesterday we said this ‘Fridays low which is 19877 and the bunch of moving averages which are placed upto 19828 is the support area to watch today if sensex closes below these levels again then the rise from 18954 could prove to be only a corrective rise.’
Look how the bunch of moving averages at 19828 supported sensex yesterday. Today also we need to close below this level to decide the trend or for any uptrend to resume we need to close above 20088 atleast for a day.
Nifty went below Fridays low of 5964 but recovered smartly in late trades and failed to close below 5924 as we mentioned yesterday and we repeat it today that nifty close below 5924 may open further downside upto 5835 and lower levels if this is a higher bottom formation process nifty may find support somewhere near 5800.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

a big crack in banks comes...i had presented a bank nifty chart showing its expanding structure which was bearish...proven right and in last 3-4 days banks were the most heavily suffered  stocks .

i had even on my free blog posted a chart of obc  all targets are done today .

what about my system ??? after one of my intraday buy call hit a stoploss in icici bank i had given a sell on icici yesterday at 1167 and then again at 1155 i kept my short message open as stbt call even after huge crash today
i again sent sms to short icici, which intraday today too fetched good returns to fno trading clients.

HOW MY SYSTEM FARED WITH ICICI ????

AT TIMES I LEAVE MY OWN ANALYSIS ASIDE ..EXCEPT THE DIRECTION AND LET MY SYSTEM WORK FOR MY CLIENTS.
HERE IS THE BEST EXAMPLE OF HOW MY SYSTEM WORKED ON 5 MINUTE CANDLE CHAR OF ICICI.

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pullback rally ends ???

For nifty yesterday we mentioned a slightly different negative point which was that nifty did not enter the expanding structure are while sensex is still inside it but yesterday nifty made a high of 6070 but could not sustain and again closed below 6021 so now nifty has faced resistance in the area of 6021-6088 for three days in a row which now suggests that we may have seen a lower top formation on nifty chart as on yesterday or in other words no  further bullishness unless and until nifty closes above 6088.
For today a move below 5964 and then a close below 5924 will open further downside upto 5835 in the short term.
One must remember that we have had given downside targets of 5595-5565 if nifty is unable to close a week above 6021 but if some technical evidences appear on charts of any possible higher bottom formation then we will negate downside possibilities .

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A PULLBACK RALLY ends

a pullback rally was expected from supports around 5700 and precisely from 5687 and that rally was capped at a weekly close above 6021/20056 unless that weekly close happens i termed the pullback rally only as a corrective rise.
there is still a probabilty of a higher bottom but looking at the weakness in bank nifty i think we are headed towards 5595/5565.

Monday, December 6, 2010

TECHNI VIEW FOR THIS WEEK

GENERAL TECHNICAL VIEW
In our last Weeks technical view and in our Technical view on 26th November we did mentioned about multiple Support zones for SENSEX and NIFTY which were around 19000 and 5700 respectively talking about precise levels we mentioned about panic lows to be made in SENSEX at 18946 and in nifty at 5687 and their respective lows were 18954 and 5690 the bounce back during the last week looked to corrective only for first two days although using Intraday charts we did generated some good buying calls during first two days too but the correction converted in to a meaningful rally on Wednesday once NIFTY crossed 5809 and on Thursday it touched 6029 thus we were on track this week too as the rise in NIFTY was more than 300 points and more than 1000 points in SENSEX. We clearly mentioned in our Weekly Technical View  that to continue the bigger uptrend we need a weekly close above 6021 in nifty and above 20056 for SENSEX on last two days of the week NIFTY made highs of 6029 and 6025 while SENSEX made high of 20084 and 20067 but both index failed to close the week above our suggested last and strong Resistance levels these levels were clearly mentioned about on Monday itself thus far last two weeks lows were precisely our Supports and highs were also our Resistance levels only.

WHAT WILL BE THE SCENARIO FOR NEXT WEEK?
Technical Analysis as a subject is a combination of multiple tools like Trend lines, Fibonacci numbers, Candlestick patterns, Moving averages, different types of Indicators, study of Volume etc. The motive of this study is mainly to identify turning points  before any move in stocks/commodities/indices or for that matter in any instrument that is widely traded anywhere in the World. Our purpose as an analyst is to increase the probability of predicting such turning points using a single or multiple Technical tools at times especially when we predict EQUITY MARKETS, there are confusing signals when we try and use multi timeframe charts like Daily Charts and Weekly Charts or Monthly Charts. This weekend we are facing the same difficulty as study of multi time frame charts are really generating confusing signals we are explaining this using different sector indices and some major stocks.

Let us first talk about SENSEX and NIFTY the crack in the month of November-2010 was huge as per daily chart signals the rise in last two days of November and first three days of December can be termed only as a corrective rise but as we look at higher timeframe that is weekly chart the fall in November continued for three weeks and last week halted that erosion of values more over SENSEX and NIFTY both took supports at one of the most valid Support line which is the Upper Channel Line which lasted for almost a year so as on Weekly charts the fall of three weeks can only be a small correction after the indices broken out of channel and went up smartly from early September-2010 almost touching 2008 Highs now if the resent five days rise from 18954/5687 in SENSEX and NIFTY is only a corrective rise then they will break 19365/5817 respectively and thus enter again into sell mode targeting 18435/5595 but if in coming days these levels are not broken down and 5897/5857 Supports for NIFTY and 19635/19500 Supports for SENSEX works and Market bounces back sharply there will be Higher Bottom Formation On Daily Chart which will lead indices to cross major hurdles at 20056/6021


 SENSEX DAILY CHART AS ON 03-12-10

sensex 061210.png

SENSEX WEEKLY CHART AS ON 03-12-10

sensex weekly chart 061210.png










Thursday, December 2, 2010

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

READERS ON MY BLOG HAD EARLIER SEEN MY NIFTY TARGET OF 5700 AND MY SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE WITH MY ANALYSIS........

ON THE PANIC DAY I SAID NIFTY WILL MAKE A PANIC LOW AND BOUNCE FROM 5687 NIFTY ACTUALLY MADE A LOW OF 5690 AND AS ON TODAY THE PULL BACK RALLY THAT I EXPECTED HAVE ALREADY GIVEN 300 POINTS

THIS RALLY HAS BEEN LEAD BY SBI AND SEE HOW MY TRADING SYSTEM HAS GIVEN BUY CALLS IN THE WHOLE RALLY TODAY FROM PREMARKET MESSAGES I HAVE GIVEN AROUND 25 BUY MESSAGES WITH  MORE THAN 90% SUCCESS RATIO.

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what a smart correction exactly from supports

i mentioned last weak here that nifty will make a panic low at 5687 nifty in panic made a low of 5690 and today it touched my exact recistance at 5967

Monday, November 29, 2010

WHAT NOW ???

For almost the whole month of November after DIWALI I have tried our best to protect hard earned money of our investor/traders by giving high alert about the incoming crash from various platforms viz. Our Daily Technical view/Daily conference call/Weekly Technical view and our chat room messages on the short side and we had given ultimate Target for NIFTY on the downside of around 5700 and for SENSEX of on the downside were around 19000 which was in fact a clear Technical approach which was duly achieved on Friday and was an ultimate guidance for all to remain on safer side.

Such pinpoint accuracy was not achievable through normal Technical tools like INDICATORS OR SIMPLE AVERAGES OR TRENDLINES.We used some truly innovative approach to predict such a major Top, we used Mimicking concept when we compared FTSE chart with SENSEX, we used Time Analysis when we projected first Week of November 2010 as crucial time from the Fibonacci Numbers point of view, we projected a high of SENSEX as to be 21200 as we observed that the yearlong channel high and low both are Fibonacci support levels from 21200 and SENSEX made a high of 21108 on 5th of November 2010 then we used a new and almost unknown CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN called a DYNAMITE but our approach was different from most other technical analysts when we said that now a days markets does not respect a single candlestick reversal pattern when a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN appeared on NIFTY and SENSEX all these are not normal Technical tools to predict turning points in markets at various times we observed weakness in different sector indices and we immediately presented it through charts.

We hope we have served our investors /traders with best of our ability and we assure that we will be consistent in our performance in identifying turning points in our markets.

SENSEX/NIFTY VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 29TH NOVEMBER

It has been third week in a row in which SENSEX continued its downward journey there are two important things which will be important this week first is that as shown on Daily chart SENSEX  and NIFTY are moving in a parallel channel generally such channeled move takes support at different support levels and gives reasonable correction importantly for SENSEX it is now at an important support area which is the higher end of another year long upwards channel but on the other hand only two days left for the month to end and we are now witnessing CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS ON MONTHLY CHARTS not only for SENSEX but on almost all sector indices so if at the end of the Month these patterns do complete then its implication can be severe although as happened on weekly charts market may try and develop two CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS even on Monthly chart to bring a larger crash afterwards another noticeable thing is the oversold condition of Momentum Indicators on weekly charts if they support  SENSEX and NIFTY and if there is a strong breakout of channel then expect a good upside rally in coming weeks.

WHAT LEVELS TO WATH FOR SENSEX/NIFTY FOR ANY MEANINGFUL UPSIDE

If we get a breakout of the downward channel on NIFTY then watch 5970 close on Daily chart for SENSEX the level is 19770 and if the rise is stronger then expectation of normal market player then watch a close above 6013 for NIFTY and 19930 for SENSEX all short term bearishness will get evaporated if NIFTY closes any Week above 6013 and SENSEX above 19930 but if the rise remains weak below 5970 around then the fresh downward journey will start and NIFTY will have Target around 5595-5565 for SENSEX the lower Target comes around 18530 these Targets are open especially because of a strong sell cross over seen on    Weekly MACD

IMPORTANCE OF 5970 FOR NIFTY

In normal Technical terms a level gains importance when it gives support more than once in case of NIFTY 5963 was a low on 30th September,5966 was a low on 20th October,5968 was a low on 29th October and finally 5970 was a low on 16th November on all previous occasions NIFTY got strong bounce from around 5970 but on 19th November 5970 was decisively broken on closing basis so now this level becomes an important Resistance level and if we presume that NIFTY will come to around 5595 then 5970 becomes 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire fall from 6350 to 5595 so if 5970 cannot be regained in any upside rally then 5565/5595 becomes almost an inevitable Target remember that a close above 5970 and then a weekly close above 6013 will negate all downside calculations for the short term.