Thursday, January 6, 2011

correction was due.

my tech view as on 05011:


Sensex :
exactly as per our assumption sensex takes a breadher at 78.2% retracement level we expect a correction for few days or upto around 20200+ and it should be slow and not steep correction to continue upward journey for sensex again and once above recent highs new high possible.
Interestingly the congestion area around 20000 where sensex had passed 6 days in a small range is now 38.2% retracement for the rally from 19854 to 20664 and as we had drawn a trendline connecting two highs which is also now a support line we expect if the sensex falls further it will have strong supports around 20007-20217.
As can be seen from charts the fast stochastics has now started to turn down

Nifty :
Nifty is facing resistance around the same 78.2% retracement level and infact in last two days future nifty has been facing some selling pressure around 6204 which was a level we mentioned yesterday also.
As we measure the latest upmove from 5723 to 6178 we can see that the important 38.2% retracement level is 6007 if you remember before the upmove started we had suggested the importance of 6001-6028 for nifty to move up fast.
So the same level around 6001-6028 now becomes strong supports if nifty corrects upto them in coming days else once nifty crosses the psychological level of 6200 we may even see a new high for primary indices.
We once again did see some selling pressure in banks yesterday and that is our major concern.
 my tech view for today 060111:
sensex :
After opening with a gap down sensex continued to drift lower as banking and reality stocks started to break their immediate supports.
As explained earlier and since last 3 days in a row that sensex is at an important resistance level of 78.2% retracement at 20641 and with fast stochastic in overbought zone sensex was due for a correction.
For today we have to watch two supports one is the trendline drawn on sensex chart joining two important highs and the other level is 38.2% retracement of the recent rise which is 20007 we hope that these two supports should work today on the closing basis.
For any upside now onwards we will have to have a candlestick reversal pattern on daily chart around support area and than as suggested yesterday above 20664 sensex  will see new highs but first let support works.
Nifty :
Nifty has broken its immediate trendline which was a very steep trendline and as we said earlier a break of this line means nifty has entered a corrective face and in any case we clearly were expecting such downward correction from the supposed target around 6194 which was 78.2% retracement level.
The fast stochastics is coming down and nifty has now supports at 6028 and than 6003 which is 38.2% Fibonacci support level these two levels are critical supports to watch for next 1-2 days.And moreover




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