Thursday, July 14, 2011
SENSEX : extremely over sold STOCHASTIC and support level of 18323 worked for SENSEX to have a relief rally.
The GAP is not yet filled and SENSEX closed again below 200 DAY EMA and even the 5/8/13 DAY EMA band has turned down if this band generates a SELL CROSS and then if SENSEX closes below 18323 bears may take control of markets.
For BULLS to have their say SENSEX need to have a close above 18680 and 18844.
NIFTY : for NIFTY too the GAP is not filled yet and it is a second day close below 200 DAY EMA also as in SENSEX the 5/8/13 DAY EMA band has turned down and if NIFTY can not recover by today or tomorrow we will have a sell cross from this band even ADX has turned down sharply .
NIFTY has to close above 5601-5652 levels for further up move to happen and we believe that below 5496 bears will have their control so as of now we will have to wait watch where the market wants to go.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 11TH JULY 2011 :
Not a very good end of the week.
It was a very good up move on thursday but a "dark cloud cover" candle pattern on friday may have put SENSEX again in range bound trades.
Deep correction or a down trend on a close below 18622 possible
We suggested about a pause / healthy correction from the last week itself which came and lasted for four working days then on Thursday in our DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW we suggested an up move above certain levels especially for NIFTY traders we suggested a buy above 5639 and advised to add above 5659
And we gave targets of 5716 and 5780 and NIFTY FUTURES made a high of 5760 on Friday but then there was a crash.
On DAILY charts of SENSEX AND NIFTY there are CANDLE REVERSAL patterns called DATC CLOUD COVER which suggest short term TOPPING formation
BUT unless and SENSEX and NIFTY breaches below their 200 DAY EMA for 2-3 consecutive close and unless we get a 5/8/13 short term EMA BAND SELL CROSS we presume the market to have entered in a RANGE BOUND trade.NIFTY took 8 trading days to reach 5750 from 5496 and on the ninth day it generated a DARC CLOUD COVER on EOD chart so if NOW NIFTY retraces in LESSER TIME to break TREND DECIDER LEVEL of 5496 then we may consider the rally to have ended.
This candle stick pattern is considered to have failed if price closes above LAST DAYS high in FOLLOWING ONE OR TWO days.
For NIFTY the high was 5760 and for SENSEX it was 19131.
WEEKLY CHARTS OF SENSEX AND NIFTY :
On the weekly charts both SENSEX and NIFTY developed a DOJI STAR pattern which suggests INDECISIVE NESS at higher levels so in any case BULLISH NESS above Friday highs and BEARISH NESS below 5605 and 18662. For NIFTY and SENSEX respectively.
After a big up move on 24th june we said in our weekly chart book that one day big up move can not change our bearish view overnight but then we can not even ignore a probable 300 + points up move in NIFTY and we also clearly suggested after the PANIC BOTTOM at 5182 (our target was 5177) that such panic bottom can not be BROKEN very easily.
So we used a big rally in a way that our SEVEN STOCK PICKS of the WEEKLT CHART BOOK of 27th june generated returns of 7-10 % in two weeks time.
Friday, July 8, 2011
SENSEX : SENSEX has been moving up smartly within a very short period after it found STRONG SUPPORT at our first TARGET /SUPPORT around 17300.
And by using various technical tools we have been consistently following SENSEX where ever it goes.
We suggested a correction during the last week the correction came and lasted for four working days we said clearly that small correction will surely give us an ENTRY POINT and as we found that the correction is WEAK we clearly started our aggressive buy calls since last two days.
SENSEX should reach 19461 as next target and now one can not think of any bearish ness till SENSEX remains above 18713.
NIFTY : besides identifying one brief correction we also identified a clear trend in many stocks that we recommended.
We have been clearly saying that deep correction may come only if NIFTY closes below 5605 and 5605 supported NIFTY twice in last four days that gave us a clue and we recommended buying NIFTY FUTURE with a very high targets of 5716 and 5780 and NIFTY touched 5751 in a day.
With strong intraday supports around 5680 NIFTY can touch our first target 5780 but soon we may see 5857 as our next immediate target.
Monday, July 4, 2011
TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 04-07-2011:
From the supports around 17300 SENSEX has marched up almost 7% while NIFTY rallied in the same manner it found support around 5177.
Both the index have crossed the important 200 DAY EMA and their important RESISTANCE at 18725 and 5605 but both found RESISTANCE on Friday at their respective 1.27% of the last leg of fall and closed below their 61.8% retracement of the bigger leg of fall started from april 2011.
We mentioned 19042 and 5716 as important levels of resistance and expected correction both SENSEX and NIFTY almost touched these levels and retraced to close lower.
We had suggested earlier and we repeat that such one way up moves without any meaningful CORRECTION are vulnerable and can be followed up by VERY HIGH volatility and may not sustain.
So it will be very good if markets enter a brief correction and then pick up again for the health of this up move.
SENSEX and NIFTY closed the week on a strong note and have given a very good follow up to the last weeks strong CANDLE WITH A BIG LOWER SHADOW both indices met with our targets given in our WEEKLY CHART BOOK last week.
But as we look at these daily charts SENSEX and NIFTY has closed below their important RESISTANCE LINE which we have been drawing since more then a month now.
IF we see a brief correction which remains slow there are possibilities that SENSEX AND NIFTY will cross these RESISTANCE AREA and they may test the APRIL 2011 highs in a few weeks time.
So after a brief correction we can have SENSEX target around 19700 and NIFTY target around 5944 in a 2-3 weeks time.
Study of higher time frame charts suggests that although both indices have crossed their immediate RESISTANCE levels it will be very much difficult for them to cross april 2011 highs and sustain above them.
Instead SENSEX and NIFTY have now entered in a BROAD RANGE BETWEEN 17300-19700 and 5177-5944 and we are going to witness a lot more stock specific moves for a little longer time.
WEEKLY CHARTS OF SENSEX AND NIFTY :
BANK NIFTY :
As one can see on the presented weekly chart of BANK NIFTY it has entered a very BROAD RANGE of just above 10000 to just below 12000 so such a BROAD range will continue to confuse traders and analysts too.
There was a HUGE selling pressure in the second week of BANK NIFTY which took the index down from 12000 to 10000 in just 5 weeks of time but then the low of 10017 has not been broken yet and on the other hand there was a BULL EFFORT in april which could not cross 12000 (which was shown as STRONG RESISTANCE in our april technical views) .
Selling pressure RESUMED in may 2011 but again BANK NIFTY found support at 10317 in the last month and in the last week of BULLISH move again BANK NIFTY has closed smartly up at 11255.
Looks good on weekly chart and a few analysts can argue the PRICE PATTERN as a DOUBLE BOTTOM but we can have confirmation only above 12000+ levels on weekly closing basis.
for the DAY :
SENSEX :SENSEX got resisted exactly at the 1.27% of the last leg of the fall.
And also found support at 18725 as it made a low of 18713 so for today the down side correction may continue ONLY if SENSEX sustains below 18713.
Short term momentum indicators are in highly overbought zone so care should be taken in entering longs but since the MOMENTUM is very high on the upside if any intraday fall remains slow it can be used as short term buying opportunity from supports.
The 200 DAY EMA at 18535 and one IMPORTANT LOW at 18323 are supports for the week.
NIFTY : we had given targets of 5521 and 5605 in our weekly chart book DATED 27TH JUNE 2011 and then during the week we also updated our target at 5700 and on Friday we said that some correction is due from 5716 AND after making a HIGH OF 5706 NIFTY went down.
5560 and 5496 are crucial support for NIFTY now.
And if NIFTY sustains below 5609 one can avoid buying for the day.
As being suggested repeatedly from here if the supposed correction remains slow it will present a good buying opportunity for the short term.
Friday, July 1, 2011
Up move continues with force and SENSEX has now given two CONSECUTIVE close above 200 DAY EMA which is good sign but nowadays even this very highly popular average too seems to have lost its IMPACT that it was to have in early years.
AS on the month end yesterday the SENSEX has formed a HAMMER candle pattern which clearly suggests support at 17300 and it confirms our view that till we find any severe weakness at highs we can think of BEARISHNESS only below 17300.
19013 IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH ON TODAY.
Now onwards a close below 200 DAY EMA and below 18725 ONLY can bring any correction.
TWO CONSECUTIVE CLOSE ABOVE 200 DAY EMA. SUCH ONE WAY RALLIES ARE SUCCEPTIBLE TO EQUALLY STRONG DOWN MOVE SO, A CORRECTION WOULD BE "HEALTHY" FOR NIFTY .
But now onwards we should think of any correction only on a close below 5605 and more so BELOW 200 day EMA .
If NIFTY continues its upmove even beyond 5659 that it can have further upside target 5716.
It is a very very good follow up CANDLE this week in first four days after last weeks candle with long shadow and even on monthly charts it is a HAMMER candle pattern which suggests a strong intermediate BOTTOM at 5177
5605 ,5555 and 5496 are support levels for NIFTY for coming days.