Mastering Stochcharts

A FEW WORDS FROM MY ARTICLE DATED 19/12/2011

2012-01-24T00:05:00.000-08:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 19-12-2011

Both indices continued to drift lower and in fact it was a real panic selling which was seen on Friday as both SENSEX and NIFTY hit 28 Month lows.

Technically a close below 4700 for NIFTY and below 15700 for SENSEX is a very bad sign as now on the charts it looks to be a BREAK DOWN although we have to give the Double Bottom probability as if in next one or two days NIFTY again closes back above 4700 there will be some hope.

This view is for Daily Charts but as on Friday the Weekly Chart structure shows no HOPE at all.

Our targets of 4538-4350 for NIFTY and 14900-14600 for SENSEX are now very much on the cards.

Markets can plunge much more than these levels in the current bearish scenario but as we all know CORRECTIONS are always there and as yet we have not seen any SIGNIFICANT correction on MONTHLY BASIS and looking at certain Fibonacci ratios present at 4538/4350 and 15155/14684 , we feel a larger corrective rally should begin from the above ZONE OF LEVELS.

We will come out with LEVELS to watch for confirmation of such a rally in due course.

Our first important target for 2011 has been 15000 SENSEX which was presented using various technical tools in January 2011.

Looking at the severe selling pressure seen in the crash of last Friday, it seems that now we are entering a PANIC stage of this 13 month long BEAR MARKET.

The price zone of 4538/4350 for NIFTY and 15155/14684 for SENSEX seems a good support zone and the most noticeable fact is that ALL market participants are now turning to be BEARISH Indian markets at this juncture JUST before we are about to reach our year long down side targets.

NIFTY FUT MADE A LOW OF 4538 AND TODAY IT TOUCHED 5149.

WEEKLY CHART BOOK 23/01/2012

2012-01-22T22:49:00.000-08:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FORSENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 23-01-2012

WHAT HAVE WEBEEN SAYING SINCE LAST 1-2 MONTHS??

We were thefirst to say that from around 4538 we will have a SIGNIFICANT bounce in ourstock markets.

We were clearin our view that the bounce will come off from complete NON BELIEF.

If someonenoticed the media reports in the Month of December 2011, everyone wassaying that The Indian Market is infirm BEAR GRIP while we mentioned that 4538 is the TARGET and a strong supportlevel. NIFTY moved exactly as per our expectation as NIFTY FUTURE touched anexact level of 4538 and yesterday it touched 5065 which was our third upsidetarget as well.

ON 11^THJanuary we posted this chart with our Daily Technical View the comment on thechart of NIFTY was very categorical which suggested up side targets for NIFTY as4965 and 5067 on that day NIFTY was at 4860 so we had given a clear directionwhich was having an upside of 200 NIFTY POINTS.

Having reachedtheir respective 61.8% FibonacciRetracement levels, both SENSEX and NIFTY had formed a probable reversalpattern called A DOJI STAR in the Daily Chart and we expect one down sidecorrection starting any day next week.

SENSEX andNIFTY both have generated a very good up move and this up move can be FIRST LEGof a larger up side correction that we have been anticipating for the year2012.

BUT all depends uponthe upcoming correction if the correction remains slow and SENSEX and NIFTYcomplete a strong higher bottom this rally can go much higher.

We believethat next one or two weeks will decide if we have already hit one significantbottom or not.

In the nextweek we need some confirmation first that this up move has actually endedbecause if SENSEX and NIFTY continues their up move NIFTY can still reacharound 5126-5157 and SENSEX can reach around 17003.

The up movewill end if we get a BIG BEAR CANDLE below the STEEP TRENDLINE and if BULLISHGAPS get filled in.

Even then thelevels around 4873 is going to play a crucial supportive role so there is noconclusion yet if SENSEX and NIFTY has already hit a MAJOR BOTTOM or not and wewill wait for certain evidence to confirm it.

BSE METAL INDEX

I would liketo re publish one chart of BSE METAL INDEX with a note that in our WEEKLY CHARTBOOK dated 26^th December, 2011 as we suggested an up move in BSEMETAL INDEX and in addition to that if one reads our comments on this reproduced chart of BSE METAL INDEX dated 25^th NOVEMBER 2011 one wouldrealize that we have not missed any big move even in this index.

A very smart1600 point up move in BSE METAL INDEX and this up move was predicted for theJanuary month in specific well in advance.

BANK NIFTY

BANK NIFTY hascompleted one major down move and BANKING STOCKS will lead the new up movewhich will be a SIGNIFICANT correction on the upside and has started to unfold.

As on the EODcharts the recent up move DOES NOT LOOK TO BE CORRECTIVE ANY MORE.

So we stronglyrecommend buying BANK STOCKS in any correction that comes up in coming days.

WEEKLY CHART BOOK : CHARTS ONLY

2012-01-22T02:58:00.001-08:00

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

2012-01-15T19:24:00.000-08:00

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEKSTARTING FROM 15^TH JANUARY 2012:

For the first time in last 8-10 months the BROADER MARKEThas started to show some signs of BULL ACTIVITY.

SENSEX & NIFTY are yet to reflect this because there hasbeen a mixed bag inside these two indices.

Both SENSEX & NIFTY has reached 38.2% retracement levelsand there are signs of a correction coming up.

There is a clear WEDGE developing as shown on this SENSEXchart and short term future will be decided on a BREAK OF IT ON EITHER SIDE INTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Looking at the strength in certain HIGH BETA stocks and evencertain sectors like BSE REALITY AND BSE METAL INDEX we repeat that if SENSEX& NIFTY ENTERS a correction from here we will have a great buying opportunitycoming up for 2012.

We believe that in 2012 atleast for once SENSEX AND NIFTYWILL BREAK their downward channel on the up side which will be a LARGER B WAVEINSIDE the current C WAVE.

BSE SENSEX WEDGE :

Stocks like a JSW STEEL AN AXIS BANK,A TATA STEEL OR A RANBAXY will begiving a great opportunity if SENSEX and NIFTY enters another corrective ordown move.

The recent uptrend will continuetowards 50% and 61.8% retracement levels if SENSEX closes a day above 16421 andif NIFTY closes a day above 4921 in the next week.

While for the downside correctionNIFTY MUST CLOSE BELOW 4782 and SENSEX must close below 15664.

If we get a WEEKLY CLOSE below 4686and below 15664 for NIFTY & SENSEX respectively than we shall have to waitfor buying opportunity at lower levels which could be perhaps below 4538 andbelow 15135 only.

AN important STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTis in progress on weekly chart of NIFTY which is A FALLING WEDGE and it nowsurely seems that one VERY GOOD BOTTOM has either been hit or is very much nearby.

We maintain our view that if SENSEXwill breach 15135 in near future the price zone of 14900-14600 WILL produce avery significant rally in 2012.

2008-2011 : SHIFT OF FOCUS & LONG TERM TECHNICAL VIEW FOR INDIAN MARKETS

2012-01-03T00:48:00.000-08:00

2008 AND 2011 MARKET CRASH :

A COMPARISION IN SECTORIAL INDICES ,ASHIFT OF FOCUS :

In ourTECHNICAL VIEWS presented since October 2010 we had pointed out a few importantthings about future of our markets for the long run.

(A) Our markets have entered a LONG TERMconsolidation phase.

(B) We had labelled the 2008 crash as an “A” wave and 2009-2010 BULL RUN as a “B” wave in Elliott terms and it wasone of our prime TECHNICAL LOGIC for finding out a very important TOP at leasta month in advance before an actual TOP was in place on 5^th November2010.

We expected aLARGER “C” wave to unfold and thatis what we are in as we have seen a 25% down move from NIFTY point of view.

(C) We also clearly said that the coming “C” wave will be different from the2008 CRASH.

Here comes an ImportantDevelopment as far as long term picture of our markets is concerned.

We had THREEsevere months of crash in 2008 and in those three months almost no stock wasspared these months were January, June and October but certain sectorial stocksbounced back very sharply digesting such massive sell off in 2008 and even madenew highs in 2010 so these sector stocks are going to rule the Indian marketsin the long term.

SENSEX YEARLY CHART

SENSEX MONTHLY CHART :

(D) Wehad maintained and we repeat that SENSEX & NIFTY are in long term BULL RUN andwe have just entered a LONG TERM accumulation phase after a MASSIVE BULL RUNstarted from 2003 to 2008.

After this phaseof CONSOLIDATION ENDS, SENSEX will EXPLODE and will even reach 50000 marks.

Here comes animportant question WHICH SECTOR will lead such a massive BULL RUN ?

We trackSENSEX & NIFTY only for short/medium term view on the markets in general buta detailed study of all SECTOR INDEX charts reveal that INDIAN MARKET has beengoing through a great SHIFT OF FOCUS from thebigger & long term players’ point of view.

This long termmoney is least concerned with anything in the World Market but is focused onthe intact long term India growth story.

This detailedstudy clearly reveals that TECHNICALS can understand such a long term shift offocus as well.

THE OUT PERFORMERS :

In the charts attached here, one can see that FOURSECTORS completely underperformed the SENSEX & NIFTY for a significantlylong period of time in the massive BULL RUN of 2006-2008. These were AUTO, IT, FMCG and HEALTH.

But all these sectors out performed broader markets in2009-2010 BULL RUN and in fact out of these four sectors BSE AUTO topped out in2006, BSE IT topped out in 2007 and BSE HEALTH & FMCG completed a DOUBLETOP in 2008 so after topping out very early before 2008 these FOUR sectorsCOMPLETED a larger correction in 2008 and started NEW MEGA BULL RUN whichpromises to go far away from here.

Simple reason for such EXPECTATION is that all these FOURsectors are now out performing broader markets by huge margin through this 2011crash.

We suggest one goes through our comments on all these chartsof different sectors.

BSE FMCG MONTHLY CHART 2003-2011 :

Looking at broader market condition and possiblePROLONGED accumulation phase in addition to a huge BULL RUN since last threeyear, this sector may enter a CORRECTIVE PHASE which will be giving us verygood buying opportunities in panic during 2012 as we expect a pause in up movefor some time.

ITC,HINDUNILEVER,DABUR,MARICO,COLGATE PALMOLIVE ARE THETOP PICKS IN FMCG SECTOR.

BSE AUTO MONTHLY CHART 2005-2011:

This sector will also be A BUY ON DIPS for 2012 as it hasclearly out performed SENSEX & NIFTY by a good margin in the last up moveand also in recent 2011 crash.

There are two distinct possibilities that one will be aBREAK OUT of WEDGE PATTERN (can also be called a FLAG) or a down move up toaround 6000 but in both cases this sector will give us a very good long termbuying opportunity in 2012.

TATAMOTORS,M&M,HERO HONDA,TVS MOTORS,BAJAJ-AUTO &MARUTI ARE THE TOP PICKS IN AUTO SECTOR.

BSE IT MONTHLY CHART 2003-2011:

As clear on the following chart IT STOCKS initiated theMEGA BULL RUN way back in 2003 but were topped out one year early in 2007 andagain out performed SENSEX buy crossing previous high with a significant marginso this sector will also not likely to breach 2008 lows and will give a goodbuy side opportunity later in 2012-2013.

Although BSE IT has outperformed SENSEX till date in 2011its price pattern does not promise an immediate up side so we will have to waitfor a better entry point during the coming months.

INFOSYS,TCS,WIPRO & HCL TECH ARE THE TOP PICKS IN IT SECTOR.

BSE HEALTH CARE MONTHLY CHART 2001-2011:

BSE HEALTH CARE INDEX also started a BULL RUN in 2003 butwas a clear defensive SECTOR only till 2007 this sector too went in to deep redduring 2008 but it did not remain a steady performer any more from 2009 andreached life time highs in 2010.

So it has also out performed SENSEX in recent crash andnow it is showing signs of having entered a CORRECTIVE PHASE which should be anACCUMULATION instead of distribution phase.

BUY ON DIPS would be a good suggestion for Pharma sectorstocks in 2012 for a GREAT BULL RUN ahead.

CIPLA, DIVISLAB, SUN PHARMA, DR REDDY, RANBAXY ARE THETOP PICKS IN HEALTH-CARE SECTOR.

THE LEGGARDS :

Here are other SECTOR CHARTS which were outright winnerstill 2008 BUT the SELL OFF in 2008 was so heavy that they underperformed SENSEX& NIFTY in 2009-2010 BULL RUN.

As can be seen on charts these sectors completed LOWERTOPS against their respective TOPS of 2008 and so these SECTORS are the WORSTHIT in 2011 crash.

These SECTOR STOCKS are likely to remain under sellingpressure through next one /two years and some of them are likely to even breachtheir respective 2008 lows.

These sectors are BSE CAPITAL GOODS, BSE METAL, BSEREALITY AND BSE OIL&GAS.

It is here by clearly understood how the LONG TERMCAPITAL has gone out of the LEGGARDS and has been slowly being invested in theWINNERS.

BSE CAPITAL GOODS MONTHLY CHART2003-2011:

A chart in picture form can tell a story far better thanif described in words.

The following chart clearly does the same.

A clear under performer in 2009-2010 BULL RUN and so theworst hit sector in 2011 BSE CGS INDEX is likely to suffer most for next fewmonths and we believe that these sector stocks may even breach 2008 lows.

It is here by clearly understood how the LONG TERMCAPITAL has gone out of the LEGGARDS and has been slowly being invested in theWINNERS.

BSE CAPITAL GOODS MONTHLY CHART2003-2011:

A chart in picture form can tell a story far better thanif described in words.

The following chart clearly does the same.

BSE REALITY MONTHLY CHART 2007-2011:

This particular sector was probably worst hit in 2008 andthe worst performer in 2009-2010 rise and so was worst hit in 2011 as well.

We first pointed out at the ugly WEAKNESS in realitysector just before the LIC HOUSING SCAM came out in October 2010 till that datealmost no stock could perform well through 2011 except LIC H FINANCE itself.

Just a sheer valuation can attract buying in this sectorin 2012 BUT we will have to choose the out performing stocks out of the sectorin a very very selective manner.

Do remember that such low valuation can generate hugereturns over long term but finding out specific better stocks remains achallenge too.

BSE METAL INDEX MONTHLY CHART 2005-2011:

We suggestedabout a TRIANGLE PATTERN in BSE METAL in early January 2011 and when theTRIANGLE was broken on the down side we advised every one to exit metal stocks.

BSE METALindex almost captured the lost ground of 2008 in the BULL RUN of 2009-2010 butthan this triangle distribution made it a weak performer.

This FOUR YEARlong move which includes two down and one up move can be a part of a LARGERMULTI YEAR LONG TRIANGLE but if 2010 high was a lower TOP bse metal can breach2008 lows as well.

EXIT on rallieswill be our advice for BSE METAL in 2012.

BSE OIL & GAS MONTHLY 2005 -2011 :

RELIANCE leadsthis pack of sector index and this sector also under performed SENSEX in2009-2010 so it has seen heavy sell off lately in 2011.

For the year2012 this sector will also likely to underperform the broader market and weadvise an EXIT on rallies for the sector.

Anotherinteresting SECTOR for long term investor can be BSE CONSUMER DURABLES the risefrom 2003 to 2008 was very strong but as the fall in 2008 was also very severeso this index followed SENSEX in 2009-2010 and it could not cross 2008 highsbut interestingly its fall in 2011 is not as severe as of the BROADER MARKET.

Latelythere is some selling pressure in stocks of BSE CDS too but we believe thatthis index will also not breach 2008 lows and will pose greater buyingopportunity when the index comes to around 4000 levels.

Stocksto watch at this level are

Bataand titan.

CNX BANK NIFTY MONTHLY CHART 2000-2011:

Since STOCK MARKET is finance straight away the BANKINGSECTOR always remain the most SENSITIVE sector.

CNX BANK NIFTY was moving along with SENSEX till 2008 crashbut in the BULL RUN of 2009-2010 this sector overtook SENSEX by a broad margin.

That is why the CNX BANK NIFTY does not look to havesuffered much at a first glance but in reality banking stocks are also worsthit in 2011 crash.

We do not expect the CNX BANK NIFTY to breach 2008 lows butwe neither expect CNX BANK NIFTY to out perform SENSEX & NIFTY in next oneor two years.

WEEKLY CHART BOOK AND A GLANCE AT 2012

2011-12-25T21:53:00.000-08:00

This will be the last WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW for the year2011 and it is with a sad note for the status of the markets for the year.

It will be a monthly quarterly and also an yearly close at the end of this week.

And on all the above HIGHER TIME FRAME charts it is onlyBEARS who rules as of now.

All averages are down all indicators are showing weakness tocontinue just a little positive candle pattern called HAMMER in some goodhighly traded stocks as on weekly chart suggests that some stocks may have started to attract some long termfunds.

For the next week if NIFTY closes above 4840 and if SENSEXcloses above 16133 we can have some hope for the early part of 2012.

Our targets of 15154 and 4538 for SENSEX and NIFTY were hitand we have seen a relief rally which as of now seems to be a corrective rallyonly.

Since we believe that the price zone of 14600-14900 and4470-4361 for both index has got some very interesting FIBONACCI ratios presentwe will have a strong rally from these zone but even 4538 and 15154 has gotgood Fibonacci supports if NIFTY closes above 4840 we may have already been infor a good rally ahead.

Time to be in buy mode for short term is nearby that is ourconclusion for the last week of 2011.

A close below 4630-4599 and NIFTY will have target zone of4538-4361 again.

A LOOK INTO 2012 :

We will come out with a detailed report for 2012 covering afew sectors and individual stocks but at one glance 2012 seems to be a NONEVENTFULL YEAR as far as the long term picture is concerned.

As described in October 2010 and in January 2011 SENSEX hasentered a multi year CONSOLIDATION PHASE which could last till 2015 beforefinally resuming a GREAT BULL RUN TO EVEN REACH A 50K MARK.

The broader range for the year 2012 can be between 13000-17000and 4200-5000 for SENSEX and NIFTY respectively.

The whole year could have three legs starting with somebullishness we will see one big crack up to around 14600 in the first fewmonths before we set in a STRONG and LARGER corrective inside the BEARISH CWAVE that we are in.

The final leg could again be bearish to end 2012 on a dismalnote again.

We advice readers to follow us with our daily/weeklytechnical views through the year as the charts unfold the future.

We will be surprised if SENSEX/NIFTY can produce a back toback BULL CANDLE after they are about to finish the year 2011 with a big bearcandle.

But markets can do anything so we will track them on day today basis with an assurance not to let our readers miss out any thing big oneither side.

Weekly Charts Book 19 12 2011

2011-12-21T19:21:00.000-08:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FORSENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 19-12-2011

Both indices continued to drift lowerand in fact it was a real panic selling which was seen on Friday as both SENSEXand NIFTY hit 28 Month lows.

Technically a close below 4700 forNIFTY and below 15700 for SENSEX is a very bad sign as now on the charts itlooks to be a BREAK DOWN although we have to give the Double Bottom probabilityas if in next one or two days NIFTY again closes back above 4700 there will besome hope.

This view is for Daily Charts but ason Friday the Weekly Chart structure shows no HOPE at all.

Our targets of 4538-4350 for NIFTY and14900-14600 for SENSEX are now very much on the cards.

Markets can plunge much more thanthese levels in the current bearish scenario but as we all know CORRECTIONS arealways there and as yet we have not seen any SIGNIFICANT correction on MONTHLYBASIS and looking at certain Fibonacci ratios present at 4538/4350 and 15155/14684,we feel a larger corrective rally should begin from the above ZONE OF LEVELS.

We will come out with LEVELS to watchfor confirmation of such a rally in due course.

Since October 2010 and more so fromJanuary 2011, we have NEVER changed our view that our market is in a STRONGBEAR GRIP and we have never termed any upside rally as a NEW BULL WAVE all suchsmall or larger rally were clearly labeled as a BEAR MARKET rally only andstill we have not missed any good and tradable upside moves in the last oneyear too.

Our first important target for 2011has been 15000 SENSEX which was presented using various technical tools inJanuary 2011.

Looking at the severe selling pressureseen in the crash of last Friday, it seems that now we are entering a PANIC stageof this 13 month long BEAR MARKET.

The price zone of 4538/4350 for NIFTYand 15155/14684 for SENSEX seems a good support zone and the most noticeablefact is that ALL market participants are now turning to be BEARISH Indianmarkets at this juncture JUST before we are about to reach our year long downside targets.

NIFTY WEEKLY CHARTS

SENSEX WEEKLY CHARTS

We believe that a PANIC LOW IS ON THECARDS.

There will be a REASON coming soon; anevent which wills TRIGGER FEAR and one bottom will get hit soon.

As we look at the following WeeklyChart of broader market index S&P CNX 500, we can feel the real heat of thesituation which is entering a PANIC ZONE.

This index is at 3647 and importantsupport is seen only around 3500 that is still a fair distance away.

S&P CNX 500 WEEKLY CHARTS

I was almost alone when I said in avery detailed article with number of LOGICAL TECHNICAL REASONIG that A MAJORTOP IS NEAR BY on 12^th October 2010 there were very few who eventried to believe or digest my view and now even the RESERVE BANK GOVERNOR isadmitting that the economy is SLOWING DOWN .

MARKET knew very early that theeconomy will slow down or that there will be a crisis in the EUROZONE or thatINDIAN RUPEE will tumble to all time low or about the HIGH INTEREST RATE REGIMEor any other fundamental reason that almost everyone is aware of NOW.

And TECHNICALS is the best tool toknow what market is trying to say.

Our experience suggest that its timeof bargain hunt when authorities do admit about economic slowdown but A PANICLOW is required here in the target zone of 4538-4350.

What we are trying to suggest here isNOT that we are going to hit a MAJOR BOTTOM for sure but at least anintermediate bottom should be coming soon and the possible up move will becorrective only but may be larger than earlier correctives.

If you look at the Monthly Charts itis a clear down move without any SIGNIFICANT correction so we expect acorrective up move which will be a LOWER TOP formation on Monthly Charts.

IF THE PROBABLE DOUBLE BOTTOM PATTERNFAILS TO DEVELOP AND WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TOO NIFTY WILL BE HEADING TOWARDS4538 AND 4350.

BUT WHY 4538 ?

A FIBBONACI MAGIC AGAIN,

1.27% (4514) and 1.618% (4355) areFibonacci retracement of the last leg of up move from 4639 to 5099. Watch NIFTYcharts of August presented here.

NIFTY DAILY CHARTS

NIFTY WEEKLY CHART ASON 26/08/2011

NIFTYDAILY CHART AS ON 26/08/2011

We derived at 4538 as an importantdestination for NIFTY almost four months back and one RECENT corrective rallyin NIFTY from 4639 to 5099 also suggests at 4514 as we use a particularFibonacci ratio for this rally that is what & why we call it a FIBONACCIMAGIC.

Marketrebounds as Moody's raises India's local-currency debt rating to investmentgrade

Keybenchmark indices surged to attain their highest closing level in nearly oneweek after Moody's Investors Service today, 21 December 2011, raised India'slocal-currency debt rating by one level to investment grade from the highestjunk grade. Higher global stocks also aided rally in battered Indian shares.Comments by a senior government official that the government is looking at alloptions to attract foreign capital inflows also helped lift investor sentimentsas the Sensex snapped a five-day losing streak. The market breadth was strong.The BSE Sensex jumped 510.13 points or 3.36%, up about 310 points from theday's low and off close to 40 points from the day's high. Exporters andresource firms led world stocks higher as renewed optimism about the health ofthe global economy boosted risk appetite.

TheBSE Sensex jumped 510.13 points or 3.36% to settle at 15,685.21, its highestclosing level since 15 December 2011. The index jumped 552.23 points at theday's high of 15,727.31 in late trade. The index rose 201.96 points at theday's low of 15,377.04 in early afternoon trade.

TheS&P CNX Nifty jumped 148.95 points or 3.28% to settle at 4,693.15, itshighest closing level since 15 December 2011. The Nifty hit a high of 4,707.35and a low of 4,601.95 in intraday trade.

TheBSE Mid-Cap index gained 1.29% and the BSE Small-Cap index rose 0.94%. Boththese indices underperformed the Sensex.

Thetotal turnover on BSE amounted to Rs 1924 crore, higher than Rs 1908 crore onTuesday, 20 December 2011.

Themarket breadth, indicating the overall health of the market, was strong. OnBSE, 1,672 shares advanced and 1,097 shares declined. A total of 104 shareswere unchanged.

SENSEX : as expected SENSEX rebound strongly from supportlevels as NIFTY reached a precise target.

We suggested a strong bounce back from these levels longback.

EXTREME oversold condition of MOMENTUM indicators can be onereason for such a bounce back.

SENSEX has closed above 15478 in a strong manner and so ithas entered well into the RESISTANCE ZONE which is a first good sign we expectSENSEX TO REACH 16133/16193 in this leg first.

We will watch the WEEKLY CLOSE and will try and find outnext target levels.

NIFTY : NIFTY bounced back almost 170 points from our targetof 4538 which is clearly a very strong move.

We have been saying that the bounce back from 4538 will comefrom COMPLETE NON BELIEF.

NIFTY has closed at another precise level which we discussedyesterday at 4693.

Although the good indication came from FUTURE NIFTY as ithas closed at 4722 which suggests that it should be a BUY ON DIPS on intradaycorrections for up side targets of 4779 and 4839/4861.

Cautionis advised if NIFTY closes below 4599.

MARKETS CRASHED AS EXPECTED

2011-11-23T19:22:00.001-08:00

SENSEX: there is no stopping to this SEVERE downtrend bothour targets for SENSEX on the downside were reached.

As our advice was very very categorical and straight forwardto SELL ON RISE we again feel satisfied being on the right side of the market .

It seems that 14900 around SENSEX level is coming verysoon,we have certain good Fibonacci ratios and a falling channel support around14900 so we will watch carefully what happens there.

NIFTY : we suggested SELL ON RISE even for NIFTY FUTURESwhen it breached 5089 and we had said in our weekly chart book that BANK NIFTYwill decide the trend of the markets for sometime

we also projected targets of 8300 for BANK NIFTY SO bankingstocks started the crash this time and took everything with them.

MEDIA will report there is blood bath on D STREET but weanticipated 15000 SENSEX level way back in January 2011,our next target isaround 13000 .

4640 is one support level and as we have seen a PANICselling got triggered yesterday BUT found support at 4640 our two targets werereached but we feel that 4538 is coming soon.

If NIFTY manages to close back above 4770 then only therecan be some corrective upside.

More DANGER signals are coming from DOW JONES weekly chartas its present price STRUCTURE LOOKS very similar to the CHART STRUCTURE ofNIFTY/SENSEX as in JANUARY 2011.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL REVIEW 211111

2011-11-20T01:55:00.001-08:00

WEEKLY TECH VIEW FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THE WEEKSTARTING FROM 21^ST NOV. 2011:

SENSEX and NIFTY both got some support at one BULLISH GAP onEOD charts AND as suggested in our daily TECH VIEW on 18^th November.

But through the week both indices fell sharply as SENSEXclosed below 17200 and as NIFTY closed below 5156.

Also note that we had given clear advise to sell on riseonce NIFTY failed to close above 5205 on 14^th November.

We said on Friday that NIFTY will have a corrective risefrom the BULL GAP between 4827-4872 levels and NIFTY made a low of 4837 andclose at 4905 and we had given a down side target of 4833 which was achieved onFriday too.

In our weekly chart book dated 081111 we said this,

“For NIFTY a close below 5156 andfor SENSEX a close below 17100 will put all the bullish hopes to an end.

The stochastics on weekly chart forboth indices is now reaching overbought zone so it will be better if bothreaches their targets during this week else it will enter another correctivedown side from the next week or so.

Such small range bound markets aredifficult to predict and we shall wait for the breach of small ranges.

And by all means the last upsidestill does not look to be a new BULL RUN.”

The last sentence said it all and once again after catchinga massive upside up to 5400 we did not miss the severe down side as well.

NOW WHAT ?

16641-16744 is the price zone which will prove strongresistance if SENSEX moves up in the next week.

we can not ignore the bullish gap support at 16148-16044zone but,the follow up bounce must be strong enough to close above 16744 for a meaningfull rally.

For the medium term perspective 17200-17300 zone becomes THEMOST IMPORTANT TREND DECIDER LEVELS NOW THEN EVER BEFORE.

For NIFTY there is a support at 4837 level as it is aBULLISH GAP area and as NIFTY has produced a LONG LEGGED DOJI candle reversalpattern we may see a few days up move .

4989-5033 price zone is an important resistance zone forNIFTY and only a close above it can have something for bulls and every suchrise up to 5156-5177 will be considered as CORRECTIVE only.

As we have been suggesting since 8^th November2011 that STRENGTH OR WEAKNESS in cnx BANK NIFTY will play a very crucial roleand as on Friday it seems that BANK NIFTY has weakened further so thisparticular index is going to to be A MAJOR DRAG for our markets for next fewmonths.

The supposed inverted HEAD & SHOULDER pattern is aboutto fail and so it will have further damaging impact on BANK STOCKS.

It is prudent to have a look at what we projected aboutSENSEX and NIFTY FOR THE YEAR 2011 IN PRESENT SITUATION because one/two yearsBULL AND BEAR cycles are part of long term SIGNIFICANTLY BULLISH PICTURE.

There is a strong possibility of NIFTY AND SENSEX gettingsome supports around 4720 and 15700 levels respectively and if we don’t see amajor recovery from there NIFTY will find strong support around 4538 BUT therewill be a FREE FALL below 4500.

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2011-11-07T17:58:00.000-08:00

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TECH VIEW TODAY

2011-11-03T21:23:00.000-07:00

SENSEX: today we gave SENSEX support level of 17273 and itmade a low of 17276 and bounced back sharply from lows to close in GREEN.

Remember we have been suggesting that the zone of BULLISHGAP and previous resistance levels of 17100-17215 is very crucial support and abounce from there will be positive.

17278is the level to watch on closing basis for next few days as a STOPLOSS levelfor short term longs

NIFTY : for NIFTY also our support level was 5205 and NIFTYmade a low of 5201 also since last 3 days we have been clearly saying that theGAP level of 5219 and 5156-5177 zone is crucial support and today future NIFTYmade a low of 5219 and closed above 5300 which is very positive.

NIFTY looks to have ended the small correction and nexttargets seems to be 5420-5475 zone.

Stoploss for short term longs should now be placed at 5201on closing basis.

Also there is a BEARISH GAP at 5314 NIFTY level so someprofit booking is expected around that level.

A close above it will take NIFTY up to 5420-5475 levels.

CHARTS WITH COMMENTS

2011-11-01T18:34:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY CHART BOOK 31-10-2011

2011-10-30T20:10:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FORSENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 31-10-2011

It’s a lastday of the current Month and there are some strong candle reversal patterns onmany stocks as on MONTHLY charts, which suggest that certain stocks may havehit significant bottoms and investors/ traders can buy such stocks on everyfall.

Such goodstocks are,

1. HDFC

2. KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK

3. ITC

4. DR. REDDYS LAB.

5. GRASIM

6. IDFC

7. TATA COFFEE

For the wholemarkets the levels around 4720 and 15745 may not be final bottoms but they are STRONGENOUGH BOTTOMS where we can pick selective stocks which have lower risk& higher upward potential.

We said veryclearly in our WEEKLY CHART BOOK dated 10^th October 2011 that the TRADER/MEDIASENTIMENT IS PERFECTLY BEARISH which is ideal for the markets to move in theopposite direction.

“Perfectly NEGATIVE media and trader sentimentis what needed at any bottom and it is in place at this time.”

In a way thisrally from around 4720 has come up out of complete disbelief as far as media/trader view is concerned, that isprecisely why we advise our readers to follow our technical by going throughour Technical Views regularly.

Level wise aclose above 4924 was needed and after that a Weekly close above 5034 was asuggested requirement and we had given NIFTY targets up to 5340 and for theSENSEX, our target was 17800. Both these targets were duly reached on 28^thof October 2010.

Readers musthave noticed how we upgraded our level of supports and our trend decider levelsfrom 4964 to 5011 and to 5080 if one carefully reads our Daily/Weekly TechnicalViews.

Also westopped any short side calls (except for a few intraday short calls) throughour reports and in fact from around 17^th September onwards westarted to recommend stocks on buy side like a GRASIM, DR.REDDYS, REC ,RELIANCE (which was our first important pick on long side),AXIS BANK, IDFC,IDBI, ICICI,POLARIS ,LIC HSG FINANCE etc.

On 11^thOctober 2011 we said this about NIFTY in our Daily Tech View.

NIFTY

“Any dip up to 4997 and 4965 should be a good buying opportunity.One caution is that such a dip should not be so fast as to close below 4965 ina single day.

Targets: 5156-5177 and than it should make a higher bottom if thathappens or on a strong close above 5177 NIFTY will have a target of 5225-5340.

HERE is thechart published on the same day

(

{WILL POST ALL CHARTS LATER )

The correction came andremained SLOW for NIFTY and did not breach 4991-5011 support levels suggestedon following days

We had seengood BEAR MARKET RALLIES first in March and second was in June 2011. Thecurrent rally can be a different one than a simple bear market rally and firstgood evidence will be when NIFTY will correct and test earlier resistancelevels 5156-5177 and 17195-17300 for SENSEX.

These two levels mustwork as support now onwards for this rally to be a different one

For SENSEX17100-17200 now becomes support levels and one can enter long in any correctionup to these levels with a “STOP & REVERSE” now placed at 16669 for anupside targets of 18450 around.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW : A FEW CHARTS

2011-10-30T10:41:00.000-07:00

UP SIDE TARGETS REACHED

2011-10-27T21:12:00.000-07:00

CHART SPEAKS :

WISHING ALL MY READERS A CHEERFUL YEAR

2011-10-26T17:39:00.000-07:00

I WISH ALL A CHEERFUL YEAR WHICH MAKES THEIR LIFE A VERY HAPPY AND PEACEFUL ONE.

LIKE OUR BELOVED INDIA EACH OF US HAS THE POWER TO SHINE LIKE A SUPER STAR IN THE DARK WORLD AROUND US.

JAI SAINATH.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW

2011-10-22T18:53:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW OF SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THE WEEKSTARTING FROM 25-10-2011:

Shortened week due to DIWALI holidays and INDECISIVEtechnical picture in addition to bigger events like EU MEET on greek crisis andRBI meet on Tuesday makes it very difficult to predict the future of ourmarkets for the next week.

Level wise for NIFTY 5011 has become an important trenddecider level same level for the SENSEX is 16669.

For more hopeful long side traders 4964 and 16510 are twocrucial STOP & REVERSE levels for NIFTY and SENSEX.

IF the on going side ways move between 5160-4964 proves tobe a corrective only and NIFTY breaks the barriers at 5177-5196 it will reach5225 and 5330 for SENSEX an important target is 17800 if it breaks 17200.

First indication of such an upward break will come if onMonday crosses 5106 and stays above it for 10-15 minutes.

The more difficult time for bulls will come whenever NIFTYand SENSEX closes below 4964 and 16510 because after that they will have downside targets of 5625-5538 and 15300-14900 respectively.

There are some good technical evidences like positivedivergence in MACD and EMA crossovers but since ADX is still not picking upmomentum markets are not moving big in either direction.

If we talk about alittle longer picture a very few stocks are showing some signs of bottoming outstill a very large number of stocks which were very active in the last bull runare not showing any symptoms of significant bottoms.

So even if indices are managed to break certain keyresistance levels it should not be considered as KEY REVERSAL IN CURRENT TREND.

Although with our sharp and innovative technical tools iffind some strength somewhere we will let our readers ride good up moves.

the most crucial resistance zone 17211-1731 and despite a good bull candle inthe second last week SENSEX just can not cross these hurdles. bullishsupportive buying got generated from around 16515 and from 16669

BUT

if such bullish attempts can not convert in to a crossoverof these hurdles eventually bears will again take control.

CORRECTION DUE

2011-10-17T18:09:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : A correction was anticipated from around17200-17300 and SENSEX made a high of 17191 in a GAP UP open and corrected byclosing 57 points down.

Watch the SPEED of a due correction is the key word now.

16510 is the good support level and we will have to wait forthe STOCHASTICS to enter oversold zone again .

NIFTY : NIFTY made a high of 5160 in between our target of5156 and most crucial RESISTANCE of 5177 as NIFTY found support at 5084 we haveto watch 5084 today as below 5084 NIFTY has supports well down at 5034.

This phase of markets may be a distribution phase only witha broad 500 points of range. it could be a " DOUBLE BOTTOM " or itcould be even a " RECTANGLE ".we will have to wait for some more timeto see the actual pattern unfolding.

All depends upon the speed of correction which may havestarted in line with our expectation and if the correction ends above 4964 itwill be a good buying opportunity for the short term.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW 171011

2011-10-16T18:39:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK AHEAD BASED ON WEEKLYCHARTS DATED 14-10-2011 :

We are on track yet again but this time it was a bull rallyfor the whole week which we did not miss.

We have been very categorical in our view that there can bea very sharp bear market rally and we were waiting for certain clear evidencesand these were,

TECHNICAL :

1. chance of a price pattern

2. Positive divergence in momentum indicators

3. Reversal candle pattern

Psychological :

1 News flow plays an important role in identifyingTIMING of any price reversal

2 Judgement of traders /media sentiment plays akey role I technicals.

We found a small FALLING WEDGE on indiceschart which can be a reversal pattern and there was a potential of a DOUBLEBOTTOM around 4720 in NIFTY we also presented a NIFTY chart which clearlyshowed a POSITIVE DIVERGANCE with its MACD and last there was a potentialcandle reversal pattern called DRAGONFLY DOJI and one important index BANK NIFTY did reach our down side target whichwas a strong support too.

On psychological front when NIFTY closed at4756 traders would have firmly believed that it will breach 4720 as there wasvery bad news flow like rating of SBI was cut and there was fear of Greece andItaly default and media was strongly BEARISH.

All these was enough for us to call it aSIGNIFICANT BOTTOM and for our readers we said clearly that a close above 4924will confirm a strong bottom in place and we did give targets of 5156-5225-5340for nifty early in the last week.

Just to take a pleasant note here is whatwe said in our WEEKLY CHART BOOK on 5^th September 2011:

“We will have two options :

SENSEX AND NIFTY will make a higher bottom above theirmost recent lows of 15765 and 4720 respectively and we will see ANOTHER BULLISHCANDLE REVERSAL pattern on weekly charts

SENSEX and NIFTY will go a shade below their recent lows(remember that we had already suggested very high chances of A SIGNIFICANTrally from around 15300-4538 levels) momentum indicators will have POSITIVEDIVERGANCE ON DAILY CHARTS and thenmarkets can have one significant up side rally.

In the second option too SENSEX and NIFTY will makeanother CANDLE REVERSAL PATTERN on weekly charts.

It is clear in both possibilities that we will seeATLEAST one more down side leg in coming days BUT already there is some realbuying interest being seen in SELECTIVE stocks like reliance which suggeststhat we should take care in shorts for some time now.”

SENSEX went down a shade below 15765 and NIFTY remained up alittle there was a chance of DOUBLE CANDLE REVERSAL PATTERN as we found aDRAGON FLY DOJI and there was a clear POSITIVE DIVERGANCE on daily chart sowhat we said a month ago came as true on charts.

NOW WHAT ?

As we said earlier we have now a strong close above 5034 and16756 for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively so ideally every dip is a buyingopportunity strong support for NIFTY is at 4991-4967 levels and 5045 is also animportant support so slow down side correction would be to enter long with SAR at 4967 and on the upside NIFTY will facesome resistance around 5177-5196 which is 17200-17415 for SENSEX .

There are very bright chances that after a brief correctionNIFTY and SENSEX will reach 5225-5340 and 17800 levels in a couple of weekstime.

Do remember that these kind of rallies can be BEAR MARKETrallies only so we will have to be very selective in stock picking and at anyhint of weakness on daily charts one should be prepared to exit longs so forlongs 4965 is a good SAR level as on today.

5177-5196 has been the key REVERSAL zone established ondaily & weekly charts of NIFTY so there will be some efforts from bearsaround 5200 and so there will be a down side correction and even if NIFTYbreaches 5177-5196 and SENSEX closes above 17200-17315 for a day care should betaken for longs for the short term.

A HEALTHY correction which should remain slow up to around5045 and 4991 can be used to enter long .

Three consecutive close above 5177-5196 zone can trigger somereal short covering even before anycorrection takes place which than can take NIFTY up to our upper targets.

BANKING STOCKS :

In our WEEKLY CHART BOOK last week we clearly said thatBANKING STOCKS looks to have hit a significant bottom and during the last weekmany active bank stocks generated an up move of 5-8% points.

Afew other banks looks to be poised for further upside in coming days

a "v " shape recovery and fibbonacci magic in which 1.618% retracement of one leg matches 38.2%retracement of a big down leg.a breakabove 11320 can take cap good index to11852 and 12315

VIEW ON CHARTS

2011-10-13T19:50:00.000-07:00

AN IMPORTANT HURDLE CROSSED AS WELL

2011-10-12T19:52:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX rose sharply up afterinitial unbelievable volatility and has crossed another important hurdle at16756.

We still have two days left in this weekbut now there should be BUY ON DIPS till SENSEX remains above 16756 on closingbasis.

We believe that even poor results have beendiscounted in the current price so a LITTLE BIT better results will cheertraders/investors.

NIFTY :

any dip up to 4997 and 4965 should be a good buyingopportunity.one caution is that such a dip should not be so fast as to closebelow 4965 in a single day.

targets : 5156-5177 and than it should make a higherbottom if that happens or on a strong close above 5177 NIFTY will have a targetof 5225-5340.

4851 has now become a very strong support and trenddecider level.

If one carefully reads our weekly chart book on 5^thSeptember we said that markets will have a significant upside after they showPOSITIVE DIVERGANCE on daily chart and upside will come after TWO CANDLEREWERSAL PATTERNS on weekly chart.

Both things are in place on daily & weekly charts.

Two days still left for the week to end so NIFTY MUSTclose above 5034 for further upside targets.

A STRONG CLOSE ABOVE 4924

2011-10-10T18:23:00.000-07:00

NIFTY : NIFTY again opened up with some gap and after firsthours sideways move it quickly crossed 4924 which was a level we have beenmentioning since last week and above 4924 there was no look back as slowly manyactive stocks started to participate.

A strong close above the BEARISH GAP AT 4924 NIFTY has shownstrength as suggested in our weekly technical view we will have to watch 5034now as an important target and a strong close above 5034 especially by Fridaycan take NIFTY back to 5156 atleast.

NIFTY must sustain above Friday open level of 4884 and above4924 on closing basis to sustain bullish ness.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW

2011-10-09T20:02:00.000-07:00

AN INTERSTING CANDLE PATTERN ON WEEKLY CHART OF SENSEX : DRAGONFLY DOJI :

Let us first read what a DRAGON FLY DOJI is all about

bullishdragonfly doji candlestick

BullishDragonfly Doji

  • Direction:Bullish
  • Type:Reversal
  • Reliability:Moderate

  • Patternis strongest after an established bearish trend
  • Acandle forms with a very small to almost nonexistent body with a long lowerwick
  • Thelower wick is at least twice as long as the candlestick body
  • Littleor no upper wick

In a bearish trending market the dragonfly illustrates an unsustainablesell-off, where price drives up to new lows, but buyers take control of thetrend by market close.

Although this formation is a moderate to weak signal, it is a warning for longsthat the downtrend is losing momentum and bull may retake the market soon.

Most candlestick analysts will wait to confirm the signal, watching for a bluecandle on day two.

HERE isthe weekly chart of SENSEX as on 07-10-2011 :

The Dragonfly Doji is created when the open,high, and close are the same or about the same price (Where the open, high, andclose are exactly the same price is quite rare). The most important part of theDragonfly Doji is the long lower shadow.

The long lower shadow implies that the markettested to find where demand was located and found it. Bears were able to pressprices downward, but an area of support was found at the low of the day andbuying pressure was able to push prices back up to the opening price. Thus, thebearish advance downward was entirely rejected by the bulls.

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THEWEEK AHEAD :

As one can see the SENSEX chart above as onFriday SENSEX completed a “ potential” reversal candle but before calling 15745as a rock solid bottom we must wait for the follow up bull candle next week.

We are not trying to catch a BOTTOM but as wehave identified certain TECHNICAL evidences we believe that if certain levelsare crossed we can have a significant up side from these levels also NOTE thatan IDEAL up move will come after SENSEX and NIFTY completes atleast one highertop and higher bottom formation on daily charts so look for this to happen incoming days.

Although as on daily chart if by Monday orTuesday NIFTY closes above 4924 and if SENSEX closes above 16404 we will have agood confirmation to enter long.

A weekly close above 5034 and above 16756 forNIFTY and SENSEX respectively will give a more solid confirmation that we havea good bottom in place.

We will track different indicators during thenext week to identify strength if a bottom is actually in place but this BANKNIFTY chart suggests that atleast BANKING STOCKS may have hit one significantbottom.

CNX BANK INDEX WEEKLY CHART :

We projected the target of 8500 around duringlast week CNX BANK INDEX made a low of 8625 and bounced back.

TECHNICALLY we need to see and confirm that aHIGHER BOTTOM & HIGHER TOP is in place for SENSEX and NIFTY to call it abottom but we did suggested a few weeks back that there can be a significantbottom in our markets around NIFTY level of 4538-4625 and SENSEX level of 14900-15300but BANK NIFTY completed its projected target and in the mean time NIFTY andSENSEX just did not breach their august lows.

We also clearly mentioned that there will besome sort of price pattern I place and now NIFTY AND SENSEX can have a “ DOUBLEBOTTOM “ also if NEXT WEEK remains bullish SENSEX AND NIFTY may form a “ DOUBLECANDLE REVERSAL “ patterns on weekly charts which was also discussed.

Also “POSITIVE DIVERGANCE “ was one TECHNICALconcept which we discussed earlier and here are few examples of A STRONGpositive divergence inplace.

NEXT WEEK remains an important week to watchfor confirmation of a significant bottom in place for our markets.

4720 and 15765 remains the TREND DECIDER levelsfor NIFTY and SENSEX as far as further down side possibilities are concernedand we will confirm any weakness at higher levels when ever it happens.

Perfectly NEGATIVEmedia and trader sentiment is what needed at any bottom and it is in place atthis time

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 05102011

2011-10-04T19:58:00.000-07:00

SENSEX :It was yet another GAPPED DOWN day SENSEX tried tofill up the gap but got resisted at the GAP and than tanked heavily reaching to theaugust lows again.

16200 was our resistance level for the day and SENSEX couldnot breach that.

15745 was the SENSEX low which was a shade below 15765 andSENSEX has closed above both these lows but the GAP between 16290 and 16404 isvery crucial hurdle and as SENSEX has not closed below 15765 if SENSEX closesthis week above 16404 there can be another up side possible.

For today 16056 is a resistance to watch.

NIFTY : NIFTY went down to the august low of 4720 as perexpectation as it made a low of 4725 .

NIFTY made a high of around 4880 which was the earlierGAPPED DOWN level and was described as strong resistance and since last week wewere consistant in saying that if NIFTY closes below 4879 it will touch augustlows.

A good intraday bounce back from 4725 can take NIFTY back toaround 4830 where it will again face selling pressure and a close above 4839can take NIFTY to around 4880 again.

But if as on Friday NIFTY closes above 4924 thanit can have further upside.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW

2011-10-02T20:08:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK AHEAD :

SENSEX and NIFTY seems to have entered aphase from where there can be another leg of severe down move may start soon.

Before we discuss technicals on the basisof different time frames it is usual to have a look at what we suggested in ourlast WEEKLY CHART BOOK dated 26^th September 2011.

“ TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX& NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 26-09-2011

As discussed above the markets seems tohave ended the corrective rally and are poised to at least test the augustbottoms at 15765 and 4720 very soon.

Since we have seen a good bounce fromthese lows, there will be another attempt to hold the bottoms but all willdepend upon if we get another candlereversal pattern from around 15765 and 4720 levels.

If we don’t get a solidbounce from these levels than we have down side targets of around NIFTY 4538and SENSEX 14900 levels as has been being discussed from here.”

On Mondayitself SENSEX made a low of 15801 against its august 2011 low of 15765 whileNIFTY made a low of 4759 against its resent low of 4720 so as presumed bothindices TESTED their august lows and bounced back sharply off lows in first twodays.

Asexpected there was another attempt to hold the bottoms and looking at the weekend and especially Fridays movement it clearly seems that the upmove fromMonday looks weak.

Ifthe BULLISH GAP between 16209-16282 for SENSEX and between 4878-4905 for NIFTYgets filled up and if both indices closes below these GAP then the recent lows around15765 and 4720 will be in danger soon.

Ifthis happens watch how our projected supports/target at around 14900-15300 and4538-4625 works.

Forany upside potential for the coming week the 5013-5079 zone for NIFTY and16756-17000 zone for SENSEX are to be crossed as per us even the opening levelsof Friday 4990 and 16599 will also be very difficult hurdles for NIFTY &SENSEX respectively.

Asbeing repeatedly suggested from here SENSEX and NIFTY has to produce threeconsecutive close above 17300 & 5177 respectively for a change inintermediate trend.

Larsen& toubro played an important role in WEAK rise of indices through the lastweek, here are two charts of L&T with our comments

WATCH 61.8% RETRACEMENT LEVELS

2011-09-27T20:34:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX responded to the HAMMER candle pattern verywell and has given a smart follow up as it has closed above 16368.

Watch 16663 as this is 61.8% retracement level of the lastleg of fall and even if the up side is to continue SENSEX may pause its up sidehere.

The opening GAP between 16209 and 16282 now becomes acrucial support and although there is a possible double bottom around 15800 aclose below this GAPPED area will end any bullish hopes.

Also we will need a few other evidences like an ADX risingup above 30 for the up side momentum to pick up as on date ADX is below 24.

NIFTY : for NIFTY too there is a nice follow up after theHAMMER candle pattern as it has given a good close above 4931 which was earlierRESISTANCE level.

Yesterdays gap between 4878-4905 will be an importantsupport and for the up side to continue through October 2011 NIFTY must notclose below 4878.

For the up side 5013 is the 61.8% retracement level whichwill act as a resistance.

We will have to watch if NIFTY closes above 5013 and tradersneed to be very cautious as tomorrow will be the last day of currentsettlement.

FIBONACCI MAGIC WORKS

2011-09-26T18:41:00.000-07:00

SENSEX: we termed theup move from august lows as corrective and we clearly said through this monththat the august lows will atleast be tested once.

That is what happened as SENSEX while finding support at1.618 % retracement level took support at august lows and bounced back sharply.

A HAMMER candle pattern needs follow up move and a closeabove 16393 can be considered as a good follow up.

Price pattern may look like as a DOUBLE BOTTOM if the upmove continues further.

NIFTY : here is an interesting observation regarding quarterend move in SENSEX /NIFTY since last four quarters.

SENSEX rose from 19074 to 20552 NIFTY from 5721 to 6147 inlast 12 days of December quarter SENSEX rose from 17792 to 19575 NIFTY rosefrom 5348 to 5872 in last 9 days of march quarter SENSEX rose from 17314 to18873 NIFTY rose from 5196 to 5657 in last 8 trading days of june quarter WILLhistory repeat now ?

We have just 4 trading days but looking at the HAMMER candlepattern on NIFTY chart yesterday we may have four good days of up move to endthe September quarter.

NIFTY successfully tested the august bottom and found exactsupport at 1.618% retracement level of 4760 as it made a low of 4756 andbounced back sharply.

A close above 4930 is a must to confirm some up move tofollow.

Short term positional traders should avoid shorts as NIFTYcan have an initial target of 5019 on a close above 4930 and if NIFTY sustainsabove 4876 one can go long.

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW

2011-09-25T06:07:00.000-07:00

In our last WEEKLY CHART BOOK we observedfrom weekly charts of SENSEX and NIFTY that the up move from lows around 15765and 4720 respectively DOES NOT look to be very positive .

although from daily charts we suggested yetanother attempt to cross 17209 and 5177 on Tuesday and the attempt was made asNIFTY touched 5168 and SENSEX touched 17191 but there was a STAR candle patternon daily charts on Wednesday which suggested indecisiveness at the RESISTANCElevels.

Do remember that since the rise started inmarkets from the first week of September 2011 we were very much clear about twothings,

1) Any rise should be labeled as aBEAR MARKET corrective rally.

2) NIFTY has to give 3 consecutivecloses above 5177 to change the direction.

As NIFTY could not cross5177 for a single day and SENSEX could not even cross 17209 (which was anearlier high) after the STAR pattern we said this in our daily technical viewon Thursday ,

“NIFTY : a high of 5168 and than a STAR candle formationsuggests clear indecisiveness for NIFTY .

A close below 5068 with a GAP down open can confirm yetanother TOP in NIFTY and than a close below 5019 will also break the supporttrendline”.

Than came a massive 704 and209 points crash in SENSEX and NIFTY respectively which put an end to thecorrective upside of September.

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK AHEAD :

As discussed above the markets seems tohave ended the corrective rally and are poised to ATLEAST test the augustbottoms at 15765 and 4720 very soon.

Since we have seen a good bounce from theselows there will be another attempt to hold the bottoms but all will depend uponif we get ANOTHER candle reversal pattern from around 15765 and 4720 levels.

If we don’t get a solid bounce from theselevels than we have down side targets of around 4538 and 14900 SENSEX levels ashas been being discussed from here.

Important to note here is that twoimportant stocks HDFC and HDFC BANKS had broken down with HUGE VOLUMES onFriday and we clearly mentioned 2 weeks back about our concern regarding abearish development in LARSEN & TOUBRO chart and Larsen too tanked heavily last week so,three major players of bull market has given EXTREME bearish indications whichsuggests that barring some corrective rallies we are heading towards ATLEAST4538 AND 14990 levels for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively.

HDFC DAILY CHART :

HDFC BANK DAILY CHART :

LARSEN AND TOUBRO MONTHLY CHART :

SENSEX DAILY CHART :

NIFTY DAILY CHART :

As can be seen on this NIFTY chart now onwards NIFTY has two VERY VERY STRONGHURDLES one at 5109 and second is at 5378 both are GAPPED HIGH which have beenun filled as on date.

There is another fibonacci magic in placefor NIFTY :

As we had shown twice in last three weeksthat 4538 is an important Fibonacci support/target level for NIFTY one can seeanother fibo magic as observed by us on the following NIFTY chart, 4750 and 4500 has become 1.618 and 2.618retracement levels for one last leg of the corrective upside.

SENSEX WEEKLY CHART :

NIFTY WEEKLY CHARTS :

CNX BANK INDEX WEEKLY CHART :

YET ANOTHER FIBONACCI MAGIC IS SHOWN ONBANK NIFTY CHART:

CORRECTIVE RALLY ENDS : 4538-4625 COMING SOON

2011-09-22T18:28:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : a caution was advised to all yesterday itself thatthere is a STAR candle pattern and if the pattern gets a follow up GAP DOWNmove and a move below 16865 will confirm an end to the ongoing CORRECTIVE rallymainly so because indecisiveness happened at a CRUCIAL resistance level.

After a gap down open SENSEX crashed below 16865 and neverrecovered resulting in a massive 700+ points crash in a single day.

In our weekly chart book that SENSEX must close above17209-17300 for a change in intermediate trend SENSEX did make some attempt butfailed at 17191 on Wednesday.

Everyrally is to be used to create fresh short positions because a seeming INVERTEDHEAD & SHOULDER pattern is on the verge of failure which will have drasticeffect on SENSEX

NIFTY : for NIFTY we said that if NIFTY goes below 5068 itmay end the corrective rally and a close below 4927-4915 will confirm an end tothe on going up ward move and it will also break the STEEP TRENDLINE SUPPORTand all happened in a single day.

Even such a strong almost a 500 NIFTY POINTS RALLY was neveraddressed as a BULL MARKET rally and was clearly termed as a BEAR MARKET rallyonly.

There will be supports around 4720 in coming days if todayNIFTY gets a decisive close below 4890 but it seems that NIFTY COULD BE HEADINGTOWARDS 4625-4538 in short term.

CRUCIAL STAGE OF MARKETS

2011-09-21T18:26:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX made a high of 17191 and got resisted forming a STAR candle pattern which suggests in decisiveness of the trend.

A STAR pattern needs a strong follow up to reverse the trend and in our case if SENSEX 16865 TODAY it should confirm yet another top for SENSEX.

Real trend reversal will come if SENSEX closes below 16709 and if this happens than the TRENDLINE will also get broken.

NIFTY : a high of 5168 and than a STAR candle formation suggests clear indecisiveness for NIFTY .

A close below 5068 with a GAP down open can confirm yet another TOP in NIFTY and than a close below 5019 will also break the support trendline.

5177-5196 remains very crucial levels of RESISTANCE for NIFTY and as has been repeatedly being said NIFTY need to give either 3 consecutive closes or atleast a weekly close above 5177-5196 to make the current rally a meaningful one.

SENSEX & NIFTY CHARTS WITH COMMENTS

2011-09-20T18:27:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECH VIEW

2011-09-18T20:25:00.000-07:00

Many a times a picture can tell a story, on 8^th of September we presented this SENSEX chart with our daily technical view, one can clearly see in the UPDATED chart of SENSEX since than that till 16^th of September SENSEX has followed our projection with precision

For the further upmove to continue SENSEX need to close above 17209 and 17314.

But one thing is clear that there was some very good trading opportunity on both sides for short term trader if this chart was observed with interest.

Here is the SENSEX chart after our projection of two side moves

Looking at this weekly chart one can see that there is not much strength in last two weeks movement after a strong bounce back came in the first week of September 2011.

A strong weekly close above 17314 can have turn intermediate term trend from down to up.

But a daily close below 16766 and a weekly close below 16374 will take SENSEX TO TEST ITS AUGUST LOWS AGAIN.

For NIFTY the corresponding levels are 5030 and 4911.

A weekly close below 4911 will take NIFTY to test 4720 again and to turn the intermediate trend from down to up NIFTY need to produce a weekly close above 5177 but I would prefer three CONSECUTIVE close above 5177.

Even after SENSEX and NIFTY has moved as per our projection there is still no clear indication of where markets are headed for medium term.

On the QUARTERLY chart the down trend seems to be intact unless there is a remarkable recovery in last 12 days of the current September quarter, and a good recovery will come only if NIFTY and SENSEX close a week above 5177 and 17314 respectively.

NEW TRADING SYSTEM

2011-09-17T19:55:00.000-07:00

I HAVE BEEN WORKING ON DEVELOPMENT OF TRADING SYSTEM SINCE LONG.
I BELIEVE NOW I HAVE A BREAK THROUGH IN THE PROCESS, TRIAL CALLS OF MY NEW SYSTEM ON SELECTIVE STOCK FUTURES WILL BE AVAILABLE ON TRADERS PC, VERY SOON.

ANY ONE INTERESTED CAN ADD bhoom2tika IN YAHOO MESSANGER.

HERE IS A CHART OF BGR ENERGY (EOD CHART) WITH MY NEW TRADING SYSTEM.

ON TRACK YET AGAIN !!

2011-09-15T18:50:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : The GAP was filled successfully and SENSEX has given a close above the GAP which was a hurdle and now it looks like a HIGHER BOTTOM on daily chart .

We have yet again maintained our track of being with the TREND .

Instead of 16443 yesterdays low becomes a TREND DECIDER level for the SENSEX and all longs should be exited now if SENSEX closes below 16545.

Looking at the strength we can have a SENSEX target of 17209/17314 and above that 17800 is also possible.

NIFTY : NIFTY opened up with a GAP but after making a high of 5046 it went down sharply but recovered strong and closed above the GAP.

AS suggested earlier one LEG of fall and than a LEG of rise was expected and that is what has been happening.

For NIFTY we can have a target of 5156-5177 and 5249 if closes above 5177.

The STOCHASTICS has just turned up from oversold zone.

A CLOSE OF NIFTY BELOW 5046 AGAIN WILL BE BEARISH.

CRUCIAL STAGE OF MARKETS

2011-09-13T20:32:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : supports worked for SENSEX but for intraday only as the GAPPED area proved to a big HURDLE.

AS suggested earlier the structure remains positive until the low at 16443 is broken on a closing basis and yesterday too the support zone worked at the closing.

The STOCHASTIC is fast approaching the oversold zone so if even today SENSEX remains above 16443 on closing basis there will be a fair chance of an upside move.

a close above 16766 WILL be good for short term.

NIFTY : NIFTY too found RESISTANCE at 5046 area where NIFTY FUTURE made a high of 5040 but reversed the up move with a very severe down move up to the low of 4903 and remember that even on Monday NIFTY FUTURE made a low of 4902 so once again NIFTY found support at the same level.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS completely depends upon markets action in terms of PRICE and PRICE BEHAVIOUR suggests that our markets have started to deviate from the world markets since three weeks and if NIFTY closes above 5046 we can have a sharp rally on the upside for the short term atleast because even after dismal IIP DATA our markets have found support at 4927-4915 levels.

Remember that there will be nothing positive if NIFTY closes below 4890.

WATCH LEVELS

2011-09-12T20:31:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : THE correction continued with a gap down opening support lies for SENSEX is at 16340 around which is 61.8% retracement level.

We did give an important trend decider level of 16443 and although SENSEX breached it for intraday it gave a close above 16443 but our support zone given on yesterday was 16443-16375 which worked.

Important and strong trend decider levels are placed on chart now which is the GAPPED ZONE OF 16668-16830 and a close above 16830 on any day in coming few days will give a good short term buying opportunity.

But a close below 16443-16340 will make SENSEX retest the august lows.

NIFTY : the support zone given for NIFTY was 4927-4915 and NIFTY made a low of 4911 and closed a little higher but the GAPPED ZNE of 5046-4985 is now the crucial zone for any upside movement.

The 4890 level is 61.8% retracement level so a bounce back from around 4900 which closes up above 4927-4942 will the desired closing movement for NIFTY which will suggest an end to this correction.

A close below 4890 will make NIFTY to test the august lows and a close above 5046 will provide a good short term buying opportunity.

WEEKLY TECH VIEW

2011-09-11T20:37:00.000-07:00

THE RESISTANCE LEVELS WORKS AND CORRECTION SETS IN , NOW WHAT ?

TECHNICAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 12-09-2011 :

We had shown 5116-5177 and 17100-17300 as a zone of strong resistance in our earlier technical reviews and from last Thursday through our daily technical views we suggested a CORRECTION on the down side from the resistance levels.

On Friday we even said this “If after opening today NIFTY can not cross its OPENING HIGH within first 15 minutes and then if NIFTY closes below 5098 we will have first confirmation of a correction setting in.”

And after opening NIFTY made a high of 5163 and within first fifteen minutes this high was not crossed which gave clear indication of what was coming and NIFTY closed down more then 100 points from the days high.

So, the due correction has set in now the question is where will it stop ?

Looking at the leading world market indices like DAX and FTSE which have broken their august lows it is possible that SENSEX and NIFTY too can d the same BUT since our market has deviated a little in last two weeks of trading from the world markets SENSEX and NIFTY can find some support at 4720 and 15765.

But if SENSEX and NIFTY does not break 16443 and 4927 within first three days of the coming week they may form a HIGHER BOTTOM .

So looking at the two distinct possibilities the only way for us to closely follow markets for next few days.

For a significant bottom in place markets will have to have a BASE FORMATION which can be a PRICE PATTERN or can be a DOUBLE CANDLE REVERSAL PATTERN on weekly charts .

Do remember that we have projected a strong upside rally from around 15300-15500 and 4538-4625 SENSEX AND NIFTY levels respectively if the august lows gets broken.

CORRECTIVE RALLY AT CRUCIAL LEVEL

2011-09-07T20:30:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX continued its upward journey but now it has reached CRUCIAL RESISTANCE AREA so one must take care in longs for the SHORT TERM.

A correction will be healthy from here because in all probability there will be a HIGHER BOTTOM FORMATION and also if the CORRECTION remains slow and DOES NOT BREAK 16488-16432 it could well be a RIGHT SHOULDER OF the inverted H&S PATTERN.

This process will take time and the anticipated correction must remain slow.

Resistance 17157 and 17445 and supports at 16894 and 16688.

NIFTY : NIFTY has now reached important resistance levels and after such a STEEP rally a correction should be a welcome one and should give a BETTER buying opportunity in stocks which are making some REVERSAL PATTERNS and showing some strength.

4942 and 4927 are now IMPORTANT TRENDDECIDER LEVELS and if NIFTY is to make a higher bottom it must not break these levels on closing basis.

WEEKLY TECH VIEW

2011-09-04T02:59:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 05-09-2011 :

At the beginning of the last week it self we had projected a CORRECTIVE RALLY for the markets from oversold status of most of the MOMENTUM INDICATORS on weekly basis.

We put forward an observation that if BROKEN LEVELS are recaptured soon we can have a rally and level wise we said this

“Since on last Friday we have already seen a SENSEX low of 15765 we believe that we have achieved one important bearish target and the big question will be NOW WHAT ???

AS on Friday 26^th august SENSEX has given a close below 38.2% retracement level which 15990 so for the next week we have to look if SENSEX can give a close above 15990 as a SHORT TERM positive clue.

For NIFTY this level is 4777-4796 so for NIFTY we have to look for a close above 4796 in coming week for any positive upside.

But the real good upside will be possible ONLY if SENSEX can close above 16213 and if NIFTY can close above 4965 ESPECIALLY on a weekly closing basis. “

In the followed up DAILY TECHNICAL VIEWS later in the week after NIFTY and SENSEX closed above first level of resistance on Monday we had given targets of up to 38.2% retracement levels for SENSEX the target was 16973 and for NIFTY the target was 5096 both indices got resisted after hitting their targets respectively as these levels were described as important RESISTANCE LEVELS TOO.

This upside rally of three working days looks CORRECTIVE but many sectorial indices including NIFTY and SENSEX have completed a good BULLISH CANDLE REVERSAL PATTERNS ON WEEKLY CHARTS.

We are clear in our opinion that after such massive scale sell off which we have seen in the month of august markets can not make any SIGNIFICANT BOTTOM in a short span of a week.

We will have two options :

SENSEX AND NIFTY will make a higher bottom above their most recent lows of 15765 and 4720 respectively and we will see ANOTHER BULLISH CANDLE REVERSAL pattern on weekly charts

SENSEX and NIFTY will go a shade below their recent lows (remember that we had already suggested very high chances of A SIGNIFICANT rally from around 15300-4538 levels) momentum indicators will have POSITIVE DIVERGANCE ON DAILY CHARTS and then markets can have one significant up side rally.

In the second option too SENSEX and NIFTY will make another CANDLE REVERSAL PATTERN on weekly charts.

It is clear in both possibilities that we will see ATLEAST one more down side leg in coming days BUT already there is some real buying interest being seen in SELECTIVE stocks like reliance which suggests that we should take care in shorts for some time now.

TECH VIEW 300811

2011-08-29T19:56:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX climbed back inside the 38.2% retracement level of 15990 we said yesterday that a move above 15987 and 16046 can trigger a short term up side rally and once SENSEX sustained above 16046 in the first hour there was no look back.

A LOW at 16433 and a HIGH at 16549 both these levels are crucial to be watched for SENSEX.

If SENSEX closes above 16549 today there will be a short term BUY ON DIPS kind of situation but since this week is shortened today can prove a very dull day after a gap up open.

NIFTY :

For NIFTY we suggested a pull back rally if NIFTY can climb back above 4777-4796 and NIFTY sustained above 4796 for the first hour it self on a good asian markets.

As said earlier a stronger move will come in coming days if NIFTY closes above 4965.

Then there is a possibility of NIFTY reaching 5053 and a close above 4965 will make us believe that there will short term BUY ON DIPS like situation as NIFTY will come down as it will form a HIGHER BOTTOM against the low of 4720.

We have presented a NIFTY FUTURE HOURLY CHART and if NIFTY FUTURE CLOSES above 4973 it will have short term target at 5020 and then A CORRECTION will form a higher bottom with STRONG SUPPORTS AT 4848.

4848 is the next TREND DECIDER LEVEL.

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW 290811

2011-08-28T07:47:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 29^TH AUGUST 2011:

Before we proceed for the technical view for the coming week we would like our readers to have a glance at what we said about the MAJOR TOP in earlier technical views.

We request our readers to take TECHNICAL ANALYSIS a little more seriously now onwards because these two quotes taken from our earlier articles proves that if used properly TECHNICAL ANALYSIS can guide all traders and investors in the best possible manner to take the advantage of all major /minor movement of any index or any stock.

On 12^th October 2010 we published a TECHNICAL VIEW and tried to prove that a MAJOR TOP was nearby.

Here is the last paragraph of that article with the SENSEX chart presented at that time.

“ As can be seen on sensex chart ,since October-2009 to early sept-2010, it was moving in a channel ,which can also be called as a rectangle, the move within the channel was roughly of 2000 points,sensex broken out of the channel in early sept and has moved up by 2000 points , meeting the rectangle break-out targets.

Fibo. Retracements is an all important technical tool used to find out supports /resistance levels.if we assume that looking at the present mood of the markets and money flow from the FIIS, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT we may see 21200 level of sensex in coming days.if that happens and if we calculate future fibbo retracements levels taking 21200 as the new high, one can see that the ONE YEAR LONG CHANNE L , HIGH and LOW ,BOTH becomes support levels and also the big gap (after election 2009) area becomes one important fibbo retracement support level.

So ,concluding this article ,we can presume that one important top is nearby.

Tracking the possible top and confirming it using other technical tools, will be a job ahead.”

SENSEX made a TOP at 21108 EXACTLY in the first week of November 2010 SO time and price wise our prediction of a MAJOR TOP was achieved with An unmatched pin point accuracy.

Here is the weekly chart of SENSEX as on today.

What happened in reality after our comments on 12^th October 2010 is clear on this SENSEX WEEKLY CHART.

WHAT WE SAID IN JANUARY 2010 ?

As one can read on the following SENSEX WEEKLY CHART which was presented in our annual meet in early January 2011 we said that,

“ according to Elliott wave theory the fall in SENSEX IN 2008 was a large A wave the up move of 2009-2010 was a large B wave and we EXPECT a down side C wave to start any time in early 2011.

And the down side target for such C WAVE will be between 13000-15000 with supports for some corrective up side around 18300 and 15500 “

Since on last Friday we have already seen a SENSEX low of 15765 we believe that we have achieved one important bearish target and the big question will be NOW WHAT ???

AS on Friday 26^th august SENSEX has given a close below 38.2% retracement level which 15990 so for the next week we have to look if SENSEX can give a close above 15990 as a SHORT TERM positive clue.

For NIFTY this level is 4777-4796 so for NIFTY we have to look for a close above 4796 in coming week for any positive upside.

But the real good upside will be possible ONLY if SENSEX can close above 16213 and if NIFTY can close above 4965 ESPECIALLY on a weekly closing basis.

By even THINKING of any positive up move we are trying to swim against the major trend which is clearly DOWN but besides EXTREMELY oversold condition of indicators like ROC ,RSI AND STOCHASTIC ON both WEEKLY AND DAILY charts of all sectorial index and on SENSEX and NIFTY charts we have observed one technical support level around 4538 for NIFTY AND 14993 FOR SENSEX can produce a SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE CORRECTION.

We have explained how we have derived at 4538 and 14993 as such important levels.

Also for both NIFTY and SENSEX the levels around 15000 and 4560 becomes a 423.6% retracement level of one important UP MOVE just before the big time crash started.

So support levels for SENSEX are at 15500 and 14993 for NIFTY support levels are 4625 and 4538 and if SENSEX and NIFTY reaches 14993 and 4538 we EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE and if there comes a possibility of an up move EVEN BEFORE SENSEX and NIFTY reaches these levels we have to see if SENSEX and NIFTY can give close above 16213 and 4965.

For the MAJOR TREND REVERSAL NIFTY AND SENSEX NEEDS THREE CONSECUTIVE CLOSE ABOVE 5177 AND 17300 AS ON TODAY.

WE HAVE given our comments about a few other sector indices and stocks on charts given below.

WATCH 4538.

2011-08-27T09:37:00.000-07:00

IMPORTANT TARGETS REACHED , NOW WHAT ??

2011-08-21T19:42:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 21-08-2011

Finally last Day of the Week gone by was the Day on which both SENSEX and NIFTY reached our MOST IMPORTANT downside targets of 16200 and 4848.

We lately added 15990 and 4787 as our second targets and SENSEX made a low of 15987 and NIFTY made a low of 4796.

This major and very severe down move was very much anticipated when the LAST LEG was started on 26^th July 2011 and in less than a Month’s time SENSEX came down from 18481 to 15987 and NIFTY witnessed a big crash from 5575 to 4796.

Before this big crash came we were firm in our opinion that the then ongoing rally was CORRECTIVE in nature and we had advocated 18323 and 5496 as MAJOR TREND DECIDER LEVELS for SENSEX and NIFTY respectively.

TARGETS REACHED, NOW WHAT ?

This would be an obvious question every one may be asking at this stage.

Targets were supports too so we can expect some sort of upside action BUT it would never be prudent and advisable to try and catch bottom because the last leg of crash can just be FIRST LEG of larger down side move yet to follow.

Still we can say one thing that the zone of 15600-15990 for SENSEX and 4538-4787 has plenty of supports which can produce upside rally but at this juncture such rallies will be only CORRECTIVE in nature and we will try and catch such upside rallies with buying calls in stronger stocks which can give some good returns.

We believe that by the end of next Week, we will have a little clearer technical picture of any possibility of an upside rally.

4848-4787 COMING SOON

2011-08-18T13:53:00.000-07:00

I HAD TRIED TO PORTRAIT THE MARKET MOVE ON THE DOWN SIDE USING MY INNOVATIVE TECHNICAL TOOLS AND HAD WARNED EVERY ONE HERE OF A LARGER CRASH WITH CLEAR ADVISE TO BE IN CASH BY MORE THEN 70% AND WITH THE S&P 500 INDEX PLUNGES MORE THEN 4% NIFTY SHOULD REACH MY FIRST TARGETS SHORTLY.

SENSEX AND FTSE 100 INDEX

2011-08-16T06:52:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THW WEEK STARTING FROM 16^TH AUGUST 2011:

ON WEEKLY charts SENSEX and NIFTY both index has broken down VERY IMPORTANT TRENDLINES and both has also given a decisive close below their respective 89 WEEK EMA in addition to this both index has given decisive close below their February 2011 and june 2011 lows on weekly basis.

TECHNICALLY this confirms that the sideways move during February-july was only A CORRECTIVE DISTRIBUTION PHASE after markets fell very sharply in the initial down side leg started from November 2010.

4848-4777 for NIFTY and 16200-15989 for SENSEX remains our first achievable targets after this BREAK DOWN events.

4625 and 15200 are our next targets for both NIFTY and SENSEX respectively BUT as usual we will see what sort of support indices takes at first targets before giving a call on these targets.

Our favourate indicator ADX is very high on both daily and weekly charts suggesting strong down side momentum.

The EMA BAND (5-8-13) IS in sell mode on both daily and weekly charts and MORE IMPORTANTLY if markets can not recover till this month end EVEN thIs EMA BAND will generate a sell call on MONTHLY CHART.

LONGER TERM PICTURE FROM CHARTS :

For our markets we had earlier compared our SENSEX move with FTSE 100 INDEX and we argued BEFORE this big time correction started that SENSEX has been mimicking the FTSE 100 INDEX SINCE LONG and the ongoing DOWN MOVE was well anticipated as a LARGER C WAVE .

We clearly observed that SENSEX IS ONE LEG BEHIND THE FTSE 100 INDEX and as per this view the current down leg in SENSEX is not going to break the earlier low of 2008 but it will last 12-18 months time and this possibility was shown in our weekly technical review dated 12^th October 2010 and was repeated in a power point presentation in our annual conference early January 2011.

Here are a few charts in which we have compared SENSEX at present and compared its move with earlier moves in FTSE 100 INDEX.

LEVELS TO WATCH

2011-08-11T17:42:00.000-07:00

SENSEX :as SUGGESTED we are having a few lackluster days SENSEX could NEITHER cross resistance levels NOR breach support level.

Such movement is a very normal after a big move takes place on either side and we have to judge the strength or weakness from supports and resistance respectively in such sideways period to judge in which direction the next leg of bigger move will come.

As mentioned earlier there is a possibility of an up move to fill up the BIG BEARISH GAP between 17358 and 17664 but even to do this SENSEX has to close above 17248 first and then above 17361 which is the value of its 8 DAY EMA as on today.

So for the day RESISTANCE AT 17248 AND 17361 AND SUPPORTS AT 16990 AND 16759 and a decisive close above or below these levels will decide further course of movement for a few days more.

On the upside it will be only a corrective rally on the down side it will be a continued down move after a pause.

NIFTY : NIFTY has got resisted at 5184 and found some support at 5121 as said earlier NIFTY needs a close above 5209 for an attempt to fill the BEARISH GAP at 5329.

In TECHNICAL terms such GAP filling is taken only as a corrective rally unless if NIFTY actually fills the GAP and we found some strength in the rally and NIFTY makes a higher bottom kind of formation .

As shown on NIFTY chart from 5209 to 5342 there are plenty of RESISTANCES so it should be an ideal short selling opportunity if NIFTY makes an attempt to fill the GAP and FAILS TO DO THAT.

A CLOSE BELOW 5116 AND 5054 will take NIFTY TOWARDS OUR TARGET ZONE OF 4848-4777.

NIFTY 4908 NOW WHAT ?

2011-08-09T04:53:00.000-07:00

MY NIFTY TARGET WAS 4848 AND NIFTY MADE A LOW OF 4908 TODAY AT OPEN.

NOW WHAT ?

A FEW DAYS UP MOVE POSSIBLE, IF THIS UP MOVE CAN NOT PENETRATE 5329 ON CLOSING BASIS, 4625 WILL BE NEXT MAJOR TARGET.

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

2011-08-07T08:41:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE STARTING FROM 08-08-2011 :

In our weekly chart book dated 25^th july 2011 we categorically said this “ The broad range for SENSEX IS in between 19811 and 17295 and for NIFTY in between 5944 and 5177.

Both indices has tested their respective January-2011 bottom on 20^th june 2011 the important question arises is weather at june 2011 lows SENSEX AND NIFTY has ended the large correction started from late 2010 or not.

The answer is difficult but most probably they have not yet finished the larger corrective.

There is infact still a DISTINCT possibility that both indices will start another leg of deep correction from around 5750/19200 or maximum from around 5944/19811 respectively.

SENSEX and NIFTY should again re visit 17300 and 5177 respectively OR may make a HIGHER BOTTOM against 17300-5177.

If these levels are broken SENSEX and NIFTY will open up down side targets of 16200 and 4848.”

After this clear warning of a DISTINCT POSSIBILTY OF A DEEP CORRECTION NIFTY made a high of around 5700 and SENSEX made a high of 18944 and started a REAL DEEP correction which breached the earlier lows and closed the week almost at the support.

We had earlier said about the DIECY STAGE of world markets just before the BIG plunge came in the world markets.

WHAT NEXT ?

SENSEX made a panic low at 16990 and NIFTY made a low at 5116 both were below their important support levels but both indices managed to close around supports.

But the HUGE GAP area is now a very difficult RESISTANCE for both SENSEX and NIFTY.

So TECHNICALLY any up move up to 5434 and 18032 should be considered as selling opportunities for the FIRST down side targets of 16200 and 4848 .

As STRUCTURE WISE the whole phase of CORRECTIVE bounce backs from February 2011 looks to be only a phase of distribution on weekly charts and the RECTANGLE CORRECTIVE PATTERNS on weekly charts of BSE CAPITAL GOODS AND BSE BANKEX coupled with a LARGE TRIANGLE BREAKDOWN ON METAL INDEX and a TOP HEAD&SHOULDER PATTERN on BSE IT INDEX clearly points out at a lot more panic to come in our markets BEFORE our markets starts to deviate from the world markets for BETTER.

This FRESH down move is not surprising for us NOR should it be surprising for our readers.

the RISE OF INFLATION the HIKE IN INTEREST RATES and now the RATING DOWNGRADE OF USA are the developments which are considered NOW as the REASONS for the huge crash happening in equity markets BUT technically the STRONG BEARISH picture for the year 2011 was drawn by us way back in January 2011 and even in October 2010 and in November 2010 we were among the first to SUGGEST that a MAJOR TOP is in place for our markets.

When we said on 25^th july that another leg of downtrend will open there were no IFS AND BUTS in the statement.

We had given the 5700-5900 zone as a strong hurdle and 5496 as a TREND DECIDER LEVEL in our daily and weekly technical views in last two months and in the following chart one can see how correct these levels were.

A MIRACLE ON SILVER

2011-07-14T06:00:00.001-07:00

A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

2011-07-14T02:57:00.000-07:00

A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

2011-07-14T02:33:00.000-07:00

LEVELS TO WATCH

2011-07-13T18:27:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : extremely over sold STOCHASTIC and support level of 18323 worked for SENSEX to have a relief rally.

The GAP is not yet filled and SENSEX closed again below 200 DAY EMA and even the 5/8/13 DAY EMA band has turned down if this band generates a SELL CROSS and then if SENSEX closes below 18323 bears may take control of markets.

For BULLS to have their say SENSEX need to have a close above 18680 and 18844.

NIFTY : for NIFTY too the GAP is not filled yet and it is a second day close below 200 DAY EMA also as in SENSEX the 5/8/13 DAY EMA band has turned down and if NIFTY can not recover by today or tomorrow we will have a sell cross from this band even ADX has turned down sharply .

NIFTY has to close above 5601-5652 levels for further up move to happen and we believe that below 5496 bears will have their control so as of now we will have to wait watch where the market wants to go.

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

2011-07-12T03:01:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 11^TH JULY 2011 :

Not a very good end of the week.

It was a very good up move on thursday but a "dark cloud cover" candle pattern on friday may have put SENSEX again in range bound trades.

Deep correction or a down trend on a close below 18622 possible

We suggested about a pause / healthy correction from the last week itself which came and lasted for four working days then on Thursday in our DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW we suggested an up move above certain levels especially for NIFTY traders we suggested a buy above 5639 and advised to add above 5659

And we gave targets of 5716 and 5780 and NIFTY FUTURES made a high of 5760 on Friday but then there was a crash.

On DAILY charts of SENSEX AND NIFTY there are CANDLE REVERSAL patterns called DATC CLOUD COVER which suggest short term TOPPING formation

BUT unless and SENSEX and NIFTY breaches below their 200 DAY EMA for 2-3 consecutive close and unless we get a 5/8/13 short term EMA BAND SELL CROSS we presume the market to have entered in a RANGE BOUND trade.NIFTY took 8 trading days to reach 5750 from 5496 and on the ninth day it generated a DARC CLOUD COVER on EOD chart so if NOW NIFTY retraces in LESSER TIME to break TREND DECIDER LEVEL of 5496 then we may consider the rally to have ended.

This candle stick pattern is considered to have failed if price closes above LAST DAYS high in FOLLOWING ONE OR TWO days.

For NIFTY the high was 5760 and for SENSEX it was 19131.

WEEKLY CHARTS OF SENSEX AND NIFTY :

On the weekly charts both SENSEX and NIFTY developed a DOJI STAR pattern which suggests INDECISIVE NESS at higher levels so in any case BULLISH NESS above Friday highs and BEARISH NESS below 5605 and 18662. For NIFTY and SENSEX respectively.

After a big up move on 24^th june we said in our weekly chart book that one day big up move can not change our bearish view overnight but then we can not even ignore a probable 300 + points up move in NIFTY and we also clearly suggested after the PANIC BOTTOM at 5182 (our target was 5177) that such panic bottom can not be BROKEN very easily.

So we used a big rally in a way that our SEVEN STOCK PICKS of the WEEKLT CHART BOOK of 27^th june generated returns of 7-10 % in two weeks time.

tech view 080711

2011-07-07T20:00:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX has been moving up smartly within a very short period after it found STRONG SUPPORT at our first TARGET /SUPPORT around 17300.

And by using various technical tools we have been consistently following SENSEX where ever it goes.

We suggested a correction during the last week the correction came and lasted for four working days we said clearly that small correction will surely give us an ENTRY POINT and as we found that the correction is WEAK we clearly started our aggressive buy calls since last two days.

SENSEX should reach 19461 as next target and now one can not think of any bearish ness till SENSEX remains above 18713.

NIFTY : besides identifying one brief correction we also identified a clear trend in many stocks that we recommended.

We have been clearly saying that deep correction may come only if NIFTY closes below 5605 and 5605 supported NIFTY twice in last four days that gave us a clue and we recommended buying NIFTY FUTURE with a very high targets of 5716 and 5780 and NIFTY touched 5751 in a day.

With strong intraday supports around 5680 NIFTY can touch our first target 5780 but soon we may see 5857 as our next immediate target.

CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS ???

2011-07-07T07:12:00.000-07:00

A SYSTEM THAT WORKS IN A SIDEWAYS MARKET TOO

2011-07-03T23:23:00.000-07:00

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

2011-07-03T20:34:00.000-07:00

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 04-07-2011:

From the supports around 17300 SENSEX has marched up almost 7% while NIFTY rallied in the same manner it found support around 5177.

Both the index have crossed the important 200 DAY EMA and their important RESISTANCE at 18725 and 5605 but both found RESISTANCE on Friday at their respective 1.27% of the last leg of fall and closed below their 61.8% retracement of the bigger leg of fall started from april 2011.

We mentioned 19042 and 5716 as important levels of resistance and expected correction both SENSEX and NIFTY almost touched these levels and retraced to close lower.

We had suggested earlier and we repeat that such one way up moves without any meaningful CORRECTION are vulnerable and can be followed up by VERY HIGH volatility and may not sustain.

So it will be very good if markets enter a brief correction and then pick up again for the health of this up move.

SENSEX and NIFTY closed the week on a strong note and have given a very good follow up to the last weeks strong CANDLE WITH A BIG LOWER SHADOW both indices met with our targets given in our WEEKLY CHART BOOK last week.

But as we look at these daily charts SENSEX and NIFTY has closed below their important RESISTANCE LINE which we have been drawing since more then a month now.

SENSEX :

IF we see a brief correction which remains slow there are possibilities that SENSEX AND NIFTY will cross these RESISTANCE AREA and they may test the APRIL 2011 highs in a few weeks time.

So after a brief correction we can have SENSEX target around 19700 and NIFTY target around 5944 in a 2-3 weeks time.

Study of higher time frame charts suggests that although both indices have crossed their immediate RESISTANCE levels it will be very much difficult for them to cross april 2011 highs and sustain above them.

Instead SENSEX and NIFTY have now entered in a BROAD RANGE BETWEEN 17300-19700 and 5177-5944 and we are going to witness a lot more stock specific moves for a little longer time.

WEEKLY CHARTS OF SENSEX AND NIFTY :

BANK NIFTY :

As one can see on the presented weekly chart of BANK NIFTY it has entered a very BROAD RANGE of just above 10000 to just below 12000 so such a BROAD range will continue to confuse traders and analysts too.

There was a HUGE selling pressure in the second week of BANK NIFTY which took the index down from 12000 to 10000 in just 5 weeks of time but then the low of 10017 has not been broken yet and on the other hand there was a BULL EFFORT in april which could not cross 12000 (which was shown as STRONG RESISTANCE in our april technical views) .

Selling pressure RESUMED in may 2011 but again BANK NIFTY found support at 10317 in the last month and in the last week of BULLISH move again BANK NIFTY has closed smartly up at 11255.

Looks good on weekly chart and a few analysts can argue the PRICE PATTERN as a DOUBLE BOTTOM but we can have confirmation only above 12000+ levels on weekly closing basis.

for the DAY :

SENSEX :SENSEX got resisted exactly at the 1.27% of the last leg of the fall.
And also found support at 18725 as it made a low of 18713 so for today the down side correction may continue ONLY if SENSEX sustains below 18713.
Short term momentum indicators are in highly overbought zone so care should be taken in entering longs but since the MOMENTUM is very high on the upside if any intraday fall remains slow it can be used as short term buying opportunity from supports.
The 200 DAY EMA at 18535 and one IMPORTANT LOW at 18323 are supports for the week.

NIFTY : we had given targets of 5521 and 5605 in our weekly chart book DATED 27^TH JUNE 2011 and then during the week we also updated our target at 5700 and on Friday we said that some correction is due from 5716 AND after making a HIGH OF 5706 NIFTY went down.
5560 and 5496 are crucial support for NIFTY now.
And if NIFTY sustains below 5609 one can avoid buying for the day.
As being suggested repeatedly from here if the supposed correction remains slow it will present a good buying opportunity for the short term.

NEW TRADING SYSTEM

2011-07-01T00:49:00.001-07:00

2011-06-30T19:44:00.000-07:00

Up move continues with force and SENSEX has now given two CONSECUTIVE close above 200 DAY EMA which is good sign but nowadays even this very highly popular average too seems to have lost its IMPACT that it was to have in early years.

AS on the month end yesterday the SENSEX has formed a HAMMER candle pattern which clearly suggests support at 17300 and it confirms our view that till we find any severe weakness at highs we can think of BEARISHNESS only below 17300.

19013 IS THE LEVEL TO WATCH ON TODAY.

Now onwards a close below 200 DAY EMA and below 18725 ONLY can bring any correction.

NIFTY :

TWO CONSECUTIVE CLOSE ABOVE 200 DAY EMA. SUCH ONE WAY RALLIES ARE SUCCEPTIBLE TO EQUALLY STRONG DOWN MOVE SO, A CORRECTION WOULD BE "HEALTHY" FOR NIFTY .

But now onwards we should think of any correction only on a close below 5605 and more so BELOW 200 day EMA .

If NIFTY continues its upmove even beyond 5659 that it can have further upside target 5716.

It is a very very good follow up CANDLE this week in first four days after last weeks candle with long shadow and even on monthly charts it is a HAMMER candle pattern which suggests a strong intermediate BOTTOM at 5177

5605 ,5555 and 5496 are support levels for NIFTY for coming days.

LEVELS TO WATCH

2011-06-28T20:27:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : SENSEX entered in an intraday correction but found support at 18323 which was very near to Fridays high.

This low of 18323 becomes an important LOW and SUPPORT now we can think of downside correction ONLY if SENSEX closes below 18323.

SENSEX is nearing its most important RESISTANCE level of 18725 and before that it faces resistance at its 200 DAY EMA at 18568 so we can EXPECT some correction from this zone of 18568-18725.

The EXPECTED correction must remain slow to give us another ENTRY point for further upside and we should watch supports around 18205 and 18120 if correction starts.

NIFTY : we suggested supports around 5485 AND NIFTY made a low of 5495 and closed up but it is a DOJI candle pattern with LONG LOWER SHADOW which suggests indecisive status with support at lower end.

A CLOSE below 5485 will bring in some corrective downside in NIFTY in coming days and the EMA band at 5433-5468 should give support in correction.

Correction MUST remain slow and above 5320 in any circumstances.

We expect some correction from around 5605 also note that ADX has now turned down for further upside it should turn up and we will keep an eye on ADX .

A NEW INDICATOR AND A NEW EXPERT ADVISOR

2011-06-28T08:07:00.000-07:00

2011-06-27T20:12:00.000-07:00

SENSEX : opened low but soon picked up the upside momentum.

SENSEX is fast approaching its 200 day EMA and we presume that it will have a PAUSE around 18600-18700 level and then should cross 200 day EMA with FORCE in its third attempt.

We should have a very good buying opportunity very soon again in SELECTIVE stocks.

The ROC has turned up in BUY mode for SENSEX and we should have a BUY CROSS from 5/8/13 day EMA by today.

18061 and 18014 are two strong EMA support values from where buying should emerge in any correction.

NIFTY :

We said there is lot of STRENGTH in this FRIDAY rally and we suggested buying in NIFTY once above 5490 even in our conference call and NIFTY opened around 5440 and there was a good more then 50 points gain very soon after NIFTY crossed 5490.

As shown on NIFTY chart for today in the month of January to march NIFTY crossed its 200 DAY EMA after it failed twice once again NIFTY TRIED TWICE in recent past to cross its 200 DAY EMA but failed BUT the third attempt has emerged very soon and we believe after a pause around 5600 NIFTY SHOULD cross its 200 day EMA.

ONCE ABOVE 5605 NIFTY will have a target at 5700 WHERE the important trendline RESISTANCE is coming up.

WEEKLY TECHNI VIEW

2011-06-26T18:41:00.000-07:00

WHAT A DRAMATIC WEAK !!!!!!!!!

Every major PRICE SWING is nothing but reflection of CHANGE OF MOOD of mass which keeps changing and our subject is a study of MASS PSYCHOLOGY and thus a study of such dramatic MOOD SWINGS .

The 89 week EMA and the year long CHANNEL has been captured again on weekly closing basis.

After our first downside target of 5177 and 17300 for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively we said in our daily technical views that even though chances of more down side are more BUT such panic lows if held can become good support for SOME TIME atleast.

And we suggested BEARISHNESS only below 5254 and NIFTY GOT SUPPORT AROUND 5260 ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS so we said in our Friday morning technical view that,

“How long bulls can fight up ?

As long as 17504 is held and as long as SENSEX remains above 17296 on closing basis we may witness such bounces from lows happen

On intraday basis as long as 5254 is held and on closing basis as long as 5177 is held EXPECT some relief rally .

Today if NIFTY sustains above 5331 for 5-10 minutes one can go long for a rally of around 50 points from there.

NIFTY can reach 5380 and 5409 if it sustains above 5331.

It is MARKETS PERCEPTION that when a level becomes KNOWN TO EVERYONE it defies to reach there easily in our case it seems NOW that every street trader KNOWS that 4800 is due for NIFTY so MARKET will not let it happen TOO EASILY.

Fridays big single day rally can become the first leg of rally which may form a “DOUBLE BOTTOM” pattern on daily charts around 5200 for NIFTY and 17300 for SENSEX.

It is difficult to say exactly what will happen in the future but we will ensure that our readers do not miss a LARGER MOVE on either side.

As of now as shown on SENSEX and NIFTY chart we have defined two important TREND DECIDER LINES one is the falling trendline as a resistance and the other is horizontal support line the trend for next FEW MONTHS will be decided by breach of these two lines.

Bullish above the TRENDLINE and bearish below the HORIZONTAL line and as on Friday there is 50% probability towards both possibilities.

We have to be bold and swift enough to be with the trend:

readers may think that we are changing our BEARSISH VIEW overnight but its not true.

The fast is that with the spread of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS as a subject nowadays a lot more participants know LEVELS well in advance AND as we see market itself as a LIVING THING it does not want to behave as per EVERYONES UNDERSTANDING market behaves on its own and it proves its supremacy time and again.

So to remain with it always, we have to be COMPLETELY UNBIASED in presenting a view and we have to be SWIFT AND BOLD and have to keep all possibilities open.

At times we get a clear view which is UNKNOWN to most others there we can become aggressive to publish our view like in October-november 2010 RIGHT AT THE TOP, we said a TOP is here because MOST of others were EXTREMELY BULLISH even in APRIL 2011 when the HOPE factor revived WE TURNED BEARISH at around 5850 on both these occasions we were perfectly WITH THE TREND.

Do remember that our views have pure TECHNICAL REASONINGS.

But now as 5177 was held and as it was a PANIC BOTTOM and more so at that point of time MOST TRADERS were CONVINCED that 4800 is due,we became CAUTIOUS.

We have a crude target at around 72 usd in medium term and as we can see that DOW AND S&P may have made a SIGNIFICANT TOP the foreign money may again turn towards STABLE ECONOMIES like us.

In a single line NO BEARISH NESS UNTILL 5177 IS HELD and we will generate short calls if we find BEARISHNESS again even before 5177 gets broken.

For the next week NIFTY WILL FIND SUPPORTS AT 5373 AND 5339 levels and once NIFTY crosses 5483 it will have targets of 5521 and 5605.

For SENSEX support levels are 17895 and 17782 and now once above 18262 SENSEX can touch 18539 and 18725 or even 18877.

NIFTY AND SENSEX must not give a weekly close below 5303 and 17669 to maintain the strength both have shown on Friday.

NEXT WEEK will end month of june and also will be the end of last QUARTE and HALF YEAR so it will be interesting to watch the close of this month.

As mentioned earlier there are very strong bearish candle patterns on QUARTERLY AND HALF YEARLY charts on many indices and stocks so if the Friday rally continues till 30^th june we will review HIGHER TIME FRAME charts accordingly.

SENSEX : we suggested a few days back that PANIC BOTTOM generally does not break for some times.

There are BEARISH signals on higher time frame charts and we have to wait for the current quarter and half year to end to study these higher time frame charts.
But the power and speed with which bounce back came was a little surpricing.
Remember bounce back was not surprising its speed was.
Anyway we have to deal with what market says in its own way and we suggested a bounce back above 17786 and once that level was crossed there was no look back.
Looking at the strength of up move any fall up to atleast 17902 will be a buying opportunity.our important level 17786 was GAPPED UP on Friday so the GAP between 17754 and 17804 is CRUCIAL SUPPORT also note that 17789 is 50% retracement of the rally till Friday.

NIFTY :
We passed on a message here on Friday to buy NIFTY above 5328 we could give target of 5409 but MARKET was in different mood to surprise most of us.
we suggested a few days back that PANIC BOTTOM generally does not break for some times.
There are BEARISH signals on higher time frame charts and we have to wait for the current quarter and half year to end to study these higher time frame charts.
But the power and speed with which bounce back came was a little surprising.
In NIFTY TOO 5328 was GAPPED UP OPEN so the gap at 5320 and 5343 is the most CRUCIAL support for some time now.
Any dip upto 5379 should be used to go long on selective stocks .
A strong move above 5480 can take NIFTY to 5521 and 5605 in coming days.