Market View 17082015

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW FOR NIFTY :

NIFTY is Clearly On A Strong Bull Run But After A Correction Which Took Shape Of A Falling Wedge There Was Break Out But The Break Out Seems To Have Lost Momentum

Since Past 6 Weeks Nifty Has Been In A Range Of 8330-8650 Which Is Now generating Confusing Signals

We Will See A 500 Point Nifty Move But It Will Be On EITHER Side

A Comfortable Break Of The Range On Up Side Can Take Us Back To 9100 & The Same On Down Side Can Take Us Back Below 7900 The Later Will Be A Golden Buying Opportunity If It Happens

There Will Clue Coming Up Soon On EOD / INTRA Day Charts

NIFTY View For 17/08/15 :

There Was An Upside Corrective Possible Above 8440-8460 But I Expected Selling To Resume From Around 8494 That Did Not Happen And Market Just Rallied Back Above Resistances Giving A Strong Close

Weekly Close Was Crucial And By Closing Back Above 8500 Weekly Close Can Not Be Termed As Weak Close

It Should Be A Buying Opportunity On Dips Again If We See Some Minor Corrections After Strong Friday Rally

Nifty Must Remain Above 8440-8461 On EOD Closing Basis To Have A Possible Break Above 8650 During The Week

EOD Chart NIFTY :

BANK NIFTY View :

18550 Was Our Stop For Bears For BNF And That Was Triggered On Friday Giving A Strong Bullish Signal For The Whole Market

100-200 Point BNF Correction Can Be Bought Provided It Does Not Close Back Below 18359

If Bank Nifty Can Manage A Close Above 19100-19200 We Will See A Strong Up move Up To 19829

 Investment Picks :

BHARAT FORGE :  CMP:1225

Buy With A Stop loss Of 1200 On Closing Basis With A Target Of 1259 /1310

CENTURY ENKA CMP :229

A Volatile Stock But On The Verge Of A Break Out

Buy With A Stop At 214 For Targets Of 258 /281 /309

DEEP IND CMP :141

Buy With A Stop At 130 For Targets Of 160/180

DHFL  CMP:510

Buy With A Stop At 495 For Targets Of 535 /555

Market View

NIFTY : A LOW At 8339 and A High At 8429 Was The Volatility Of The Day And This Volatility Was Expected And Suggested Here Too

NIFTY Opened With A GAP UP Went To 8429.5 And There Wild Whipsaws Through The Day

Selling Was Suggested From Around 8430 And Buying Above 8376-8396 Zone

Watch For A Sustained Move Above 8440-8461 And We May See 8494 Again

Expect Selling Again From 8461-8494 Zone

A Close Below The SUPPORT LINE Shown On The Chart Will Take NIFTY To 8200 And Further Down Side Will Open Up

Weekly Close Is Very Important

BANK NIFTY :

For Bank Nifty We Can Not See A Range Like We Have For Nifty

But A Low At 17821 Is Very Crucial Support For Bank Nifty And Expect This Level By Next Week If Bearish Ness Continues

18555 is the Level To Watch On Closing Basis For Bank Nifty

But A Negative Close Today / Dull Day And We Will Have Negative Weekly Candle Patterns

Market View

NIFTY : 8650--8665 Seems to have Proven A Real Strong Resistance Zone And As Suggested Here To SHORT Nifty Futures If It Remains Below 8555-8571 NF Tested Previous Lows At 8503 And Then Met The 2nd Sell Target of 8460 Too By Making A Low At 8461

We Are Heading Towards The GAP Zone Of 8448-8397

For A Decisive BREAK Down We Need To Have A Watch For A CLOSE Below The GAP At 8448-8397 Also The First Fibonacci Support Of 38.2% is At 8380

Expect Some Corrective Up move / Sideways Moves IF Nifty Fills The Gap And Does Not CLOSE Below 8380

This Week's CLOSE Will be Very Very Crucial For Our Markets

BANK NIFTY :

We Suggested Short Trade For BNF Below 18795 For Target s of 18695 and 18576 And BNF Made A Low Of 18630 Before Closing At 18699

Looking At The World Markets Expect 18576 Today

A Move Below 18576 will Take BNF To 18430-18351 First

If We See A Bounce Back Today Or In Next 1-2 Days From These Levels Then 18802-18920 Will Be Strong Resistance Levels For BNF

EOD CHART OF BANK NIFTY :

STOCK IDEAs : We Would Prefer To Watch Todays Close Before Giving Any Pre Market Stock Trades For Futures

Investment Pick : BLUESTARINFO CMP:283 Is Suggested As Short Term Delievery Pick  Also One Can Add More Above 290 For Targets of 299--309

Market View

NIFTY :  As Expected One More Effort Was Made To Cross 8650-8665 Zone But NF Just Made A High of 8548 And There Was A Sharp Reversal

Once Below 8571 There Was SHORT TRADE Opportunity And NF Plunged To Close At 8521 Making A LOW Of 8503

For Today Watch 8571 Again If NF Remains Above It For The First 15 Minutes (SGX NIFTY +45) One Can Try A Long Trade With A Stop At 8548 For A Target of 8600-8619-8648

IF NF Remains Below 8571-8555 At The End First 15 Minute Period 8503 Could be Again Tested And A MOVE Below 8503 will Open up NF Target upto 8460 First

This Hourly Chart Shows NF Is Clearly In A Broad Range Of 8660-8330

There Is A Clear SUPPLY ZONE Established Around 8650 in NIFTY So As Suggested Yesterday We Need A Strong CLOSE Above 8665 For Further Upside

EOD CHART OF NIFTY :

BANK NIFTY :

For BNF 19193-19250 Is The Recent SUPPLY Zone And BNF Can Cross This Zone There Will Be Further Upside Opening up

But Looking At The Last Hour Supply Yesterday It Will Be A Tough Ask Still Markets Can Do Anything So One Can Go Long Above The Zone

In A Non Trending Markets Like This One Must Think Of Opportunities On Both Sides So If BNF Trades Below 18795 First Target For Short Trade Will Be 18695 And Next one Will BE 18576

BNF Supply Zone And Support Trend Line  Can be Seen On its Hourly Chart

Stock Ideas :

AXIS BANK :  One Of The Weakest Hourly Structure Among Private Sector Banks

If Axis Remains Below 576-573 One Can Go Short With A STOP At 581 With First Target Of 565 And Next 555

HeroMotoco:

Heromotoco Looks Good On Chart

Go Long Above 2730 For Targets Of 2762-2780 With A Stop At 2709

INVESTMENT IDEAS :

AARVEEDEN : CMP:72.8 

Buy AARVEEDEN With A Stop At A Close Below 68 For Upside Target OF 80 And 89 And Near Term Future

BLUESTARCO : CMP:373.80

Buy With STOP At Close Below 350 For Target Of 399-445

MISSING TARGETS : DANGER SIGNALS COMING UP ON CHARTS

In My Last Update I Mentioned That If NF Can Cross 8482 We will See 8900 Easily.

It Was A Little Over Enthusiastic Target Set Up
NF Faltered Around 8665 And With Multiple Highs Around 8665 Followed By A Strong Down Move Especially Closing Below 8482 Generates Serious Danger Signals For Our Markets

As Shown On BANK NIFTY & NIFTY Charts The LAST UpMove Was INFACT A Rising Channel Which Was Bearish

A Break Down Today Confirms That The Down Trend Has Resumed Again

And My View Is That Now Onwards We Are Bound To See SOME SERIOUS SELLING PRESSURE Across All Sectors Which Will Create Panic In Next 2-3 Months Time

A Close Below 8315 & 8200 Will Take NIFTY Below 7950 And Then The PANIC Selling Will Get Initiated

As Usual If Charts Suggests This A REASON Will Come From Anywhere .

One More Study Says That 7502-7512 For NIFTY Is A Distinct Possibility In Near Future If NIFTY ANalysis Done Here Proves Correct

An Update

Our Markets Are Yet To Panic Considering The Greece And Now Chinese Turmoil

How Long Will We Sustain ?

If NF Can Give A Close Above 8482 In next 1-2 Days We May Easily Reach 8900

But A Close Below 8300 And More So A Close Below 8200 Will Have Severe Negative Impact On Sentiments Here As Well

Watch The 200 DEMA As Well ,Which is At 8218

Failure Of A Seemingly Inverted H&S To Have A Big Upside Will Also Open Up Further Down Side Targets For NIFTY

8600 POSSIBLE

NIFTY RE Visits its 200 DEMA

A Few Months Back I Posted This Observation :

http://bhoom2tika.blogspot.in/2015/01/a-nearly-confirmed-lower-top-for-medium.html

And Yesterday NIFTY Actually Touched Its 200 Dema