THE ECONOMIST WINS OVER THE POLITICIAN

I have lots and lots of respect for the hon. prime minisyer dr. manmohan singh.,,i was keenly recording his budget speeches in 1992-1995 period.

he, with the legend intellectual visionary late shri p.v. narsimharao,,, literally changed indias fortune for the better.

within last 1-2 months,, the economist dr. manmohansingh, has taken two, very smart steps,,which will be very good for the economy for the long run, but will have certain negative impact for the stock markets in particular for banking and auto stocks for short--medium term period.

FIRST, it was a collection of almost 1lac cr from telecom auctions.

SECOND, proposed de control of oil prices,, the oil marketing companies are said to be in loss of huge 72000 cr ,, this step, will allow omcs to increase oil prices and they will recover 72 k cr.

as. most of the omcs have huge govt. stakes,, major chunk of this 72k cr will be in the govt. kitty.
NOW, THIS HUGE FUND OF APPROX 1.6 LAC CR ,, will surely help economist pm to reduce budget deficit,, which will have great boost up for india s image as a frowing economy.

BUT, this will surely create inflationary pressure and the the dirty interest rate rise cycle will speed up.
so, lesser money in the system...higher interest rate and pressure on auto sales.

with the world market charts looking SIGNIFICANTLY WEAK ,, due to these steps , india will join in line with the deep correction , with the world markets.

technically, channel and 5171---4960--4675...are the downside targets, if nifty cant cross 5360--5445--5467.

nifty view

this is what I wrote to you, in my presentation abt the markets around 15 days back.
NOW, we are in the last 5-10 overs of the finale.
NIFTY will reward, 500 + points on EITHER side to whoever wins .
AS on eod charts...SHAPE WISE its a perfect HEAD N SHOULDER PATTERN ON NIFTY/SENSEX CHARTS., DEVELOPING.
First sign of hns working will be sideways move for 1-2 days + a big upmove closing above 5073...
and than THE NECKLINE BREAK ON THE UPSIDE , NEEDED.




Nifty was around 4900, than, the possible HEAD & SHOULDER pattern , which was clearly mentioned in my last view, worked and nifty made a high of 5370.


now what ?
A failure to cross, the highs at 5399 is a factor to worry...on charts, the last four days fall seems tobe corrective only, and we will seean upmove from max around 5215. although, 5278..my yahoo mess. Level is not broken yet, on closing basis. Still, below it there will be supports from 5215.


but, looking at charts of some banking leaders and metal sector, the coming rise too will be weak.
We need a close above 5360 for a strong upmove to around 5425-5435 and 5467.
as charts suggests, after oil price hike, interest rate hike, may be on the cards.and if that happens, we may again see a deeper correction.

For medium term watch 5171, nifty spot level.below which, in the month of july-2010, we will surely have deeper correction.

a flag in nifty fut.

5278 was held,,,brokn n recovered soon  ..if holds on daily charts,,nifty flag will work positively.

EXPANDING IN HOURLY CHART OF SENSEX

ITS A BEARISH STRUCTURE.

IF 5278 BROKEN...SUPP AT 5205

nifty chart and my projection

A VALID HNS BREAK OUT

WE expect something out of markets, and markets tries to show something else.....we get frustrated only if we couldnt understand, what markets tries to suggest.

luckily,,here in my case..i had my channel and 4960 nifty level, to get breached IF a crash was to come. but,
i found a reversal pattern developing,, way before the RIGHT SHOULDER was even visible..(nifty chart 27-05-2010),,and indeed, theres now a valid head n shoulder developed.

i would wait for a correction..(may be small).on the downside, to get an entry point to go long,, for targets of 5425--5435.

future course for sensex/ nifty

HI , all.

Our markets have lately started to devite from the whole world markets, lately. Especially in recent few weeks.

i.e. if dow/ world markets have fallen sharply, our markets too have came down,,,but not as much as others. And just a small bounce in the world markets, and nifty suddenly has jumped more.

That is how, if we look at the major world indices, , its clear that most of them have broken/tasted their may-2010 lows, while our markets, have not.

Now, this will have good impact, if weak looking dow or ftse or dax..starts falling more severly after some corrective up-move, in coming weeks..

for us, our channel is the most important support.

And up-side is capped around 5425-5435...if the hns pattern works.

If 4960 and the channel gets broken, than down side can easily open up to 4586—4210.

remember, any markets CAN NOT remain in such channel,,for much longer.

A BREAK OUT on the either side is bound to come.

For our markets, the downside break can come, may be after nifty touches the upper channel around 5435...this is possible, if after some correction on the upside, the world markets, again starts crashing.

INTRAAY TRIANGLE