A PROBABLE NIFTY MOVE

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

A Possible Big TREND REVERSAL ?

My Technical View For The Week 08032016:

NIFTY:

A Few Notes First From My Earlier Technical Views:

In My Weekly Chart Book On 11th Jan I Said This

'' After May Be A Minor Support Around 7550-7500 We Will See New Lows And First Probable Support/Target Zone Is 7422 Then 7330-7280 And Finally 7141-7118

But Once FLOOD Gates Open Up PANIC SELLING May Happen And Further New Lows Can Be Possible But Not Without Rallies In Between

We Are In 45TH Week Since NIFTY Made Its TOP In MARCH 2015 While In 50th WEEK Since BANK NIFTY Made Its TOP In 2015

55 Is A FIBONACCI Number So  We Will Have A Significant Bottom Around 12th Feb Or Around 19th March 2016''

In Nearly 8 Weeks Since We Witnessed What Happens When Flood Gates Open Up Once NIFTY Breached 7118 And NIFTY Made A Very Important CLOSING LOW At 6980 As Against Its INTRA DAY Low Of 6869 Exactly On 12Th February As Anticipated On 11th January.

Short Term Picture Of NIFTY :

I Wrote Just A Few Days Prior To Budget That When Immediate Resistance Levels Can Not Stop The Up Move It Will Be The First Sign Of A New Directional Move

As NIFTY Made A PANIC LOW At 6825 On The Budget Day And 7230 Which Was First Strong Hurdle Could Not Stop NIFTY To Move Up It Was Clear That We Are In For  Some Thing Else Then A Mere Corrective Post Budget Rally

I Had Given NIFTY Targets Of 7356-7396-7532 With A Clear Suggestion To Buy On Dips

SGX NIFTY Has Made A High Of 7535 Today So With Such A STRONG Short Term Up Move A Small Correction Should Be Expected Soon And It Will Be A Welcome Correction

There Are Bullish Gaps Which Should Support And Such A Correction Should End Above 7230

We May See Some Range Bound Move Before NIFTY Finally Crosses The Major Hurdle Around 7550 And Should Reach 7709-7726 Once Above 7550

Medium Term :

Since The Very Recent Up Move Seems To Be A Possible New Bull Move A Very Important Question Is That At Which Price Point The Up Move Can Pause And What Can Be Next Targets

If The Whole Down Move Initiated From 9119 Has Indeed Ended At 6825 The First Minimum Target Can Easily Be 7698

Next Would Be 7968

In This Case Too Any Corrective Down Move From Around 7550 Should Be Used To Enter Long

EOD NIFTY CHART:

If The Down Move Which Started From 23rd July 2015 At 8654 Has Ended At 7825 We Can Have An Upside Targets Of 7521-7736-7952

NIFTY EOD 2:

So In Both These Cases NIFTY Should Reach Around 7730 First And 7950 Next

This Is Possible Even If The Recent Up Move Proves To Be Just A Sharp Bear Market Rally

On Weekly Chart NIFTY Has Made A Variant Of MORNING STAR Candle Reversal Pattern Which Too Suggests Every Dip Should Be Bought In

BULLISH GAP At 7406-7380 Is Support And Next Big Support Is Another Gap At 7308-7222

If NIFTY CLOSEs Below 7222 Any Day Bullish Assumptions May Go Wrong But At This Juncture This Seems EXTREMELY DIFFICULT

WEEKLY CHART :

Also Note How NIFTY Has Took Support At The Long Term Trend line And Also At The LOWER END Of The Broadening Price Structure

A STRONG BOTTOM

A STRONG BOTTOM IN PLACE AT 6825-6869 PRICE ZONE:

Technical View For 02032016 And For Next Few Days:

12Th Feb Was One Date Where A Bottom Was Anticipated Our Markets Made Their LOWs On The Same Date

At That Time I Said A Bottom Seems To Be In Place But It Will Tested And Re Tested

Against That Low Of 6969 NIFTY Made A Low At 6970 On 17th Feb Another Low At 6961 On 25th Feb And One Final PANIC Low At 6825 On Budget Day

Yesterday Was Suggesting A STRONG BOTTOM Is In Place

Targets 7356-7396-7532

Buy On Dips Is Advised

Tech View

MARKET VIEW For 26022016:

NIFTY:

7037-6965 Were 1st Two Targets Below Which 6943-6865 Too Possible And Yesterday NIFTY Did Close Exactly @6965

Looking At World Markets A GAP UP Open Is Possible And Expect Some Up Side In The Hope For A Good Budget

7066 Is First Possible Target If NIFTY Closes 1st Hour Above 7019

7100 Will Be Next Possible Target And Resistance Too

It Is A Big Event Day Coming So Wait & Watch Must Be An Ideal Strategy

NIFTY EOD:

NIFTY LOW : 6869

NIFTY Meets The LOWER END Of BROADENING STRUCTURE

NIFTY TARGETs 7118-6880-6600

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 08022016:

Markets Always Produces POSSIBILITIES Of Larger Moves On Either Side So A Technical Analyst Has To Weigh Different Evidences To Judge The HIGHER SIDE Probability

Technical Analysis Is A SCIENCE OF VISION If There Is Clarity The Prediction Can Be On Track But When There Is Fog In The Air The Vision Too Gets Disrupts

When There Is NO CLARITY One Should Be Honest Enough To Accept It Till The Sun Shines To Make The Vision Clear

MIXED SIGNALS:

NIFTY May Have A STRONG BOTTOM In Place At 7230 But Once BROKEN There Can Be A One Way Deep & Panicking Fall To 7118 And Even Up To Around 6600

BANK NIFTY Too May Have A STRONG DOUBLE BOTTOM In Place At 14700 But Once Broken It Can Easily & Swiftly Plunge Towards 13332

So Its Better Wait And Watch

A FEW NEGATIVES :

DOW JONES AND S&P Are At SUPPORTS But Once Broken Below Recent Lows Can Bring In Severe Panic In The WORLD MARKETs

DAX Too Is At SUPPORTs But Has Given A WORST WEEKLY CLOSE In Many Months And Seems To Be On The Verge Of A Big BREAK DOWN

A FEW POSITIVES:

Four Leading Banks Are Showing Signs Of Immense Strength And Will Lead The New Bull Phase From Around Middle Of 2016 Onwards

They Are KOTAK ,HDFC BANK,INDUSIND BANK,YESBANK

NSE MIDCAP INDEX Has No Signs Of Any BREAK DOWN As Yet When We Compare It With NIFTY & BANKNIFTY

NIFTY Levels To Watch:

NIFTY Has CLOSED Above One BEARISH GAP At 7448 So If It Sustains Above 7448 NIFTY Can Attempt The Earlier Important Resistance At 7551-7600

A CLOSE Above 7600 Will Be Again Positive

A CLOSE Below 7360 Will Be EXTREMELY Negative

BANK NIFTY:

A  CLOSE Below 15145 Will Be NEGATIVE

And If BNF Closes Monday Above 15210 Again It Can Attempt At 15500-15600

A CLOSE Above 15600 Will Be Very POSITIVE

NIFTY VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 03022016:

NIFTY:

Two Days Back I Suggested That A NIFTY CLOSE Above 7600 Can Take It To Higher Levels And NIFTY Made A PRECISE HIGH Of 7600 On 1st Feb

Yesterday Too Bulls Made An Attempt To Cross 7600 But The Was 7576

A CLOSE Below 7400 Will End The RELIEF RALLY

May Be One More Attempt Be Made From 7400-7350 Zone To Take NIFTY Higher But Now With Yesterdays Crack The Whole PRICE STRUCTURE For The RELIEF RALLY Seems Bearish And NIFTY Should Breach 7230 In Coming Days

NIFTY EOD: 

BANK NIFTY:

BANK NIFTY Did Not Have Any Strength And A CLOSE Below 14900 Will Resume Fresh Down Move Here

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR NIFTY & BANK NIFTY

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 01022016:

NIFTY:

In My Last Technical View I Suggested That A SHORT TERM BOTTOM Was In Place At 7230 And A Possible Relief Rally Targets Were Set 7462-7551

NIFTY Has Managed To CLOSE Above A Crucial Resistance At 7551 So On A CLOSE Above 7600 It Can Reach 7672 And 7721-7742 To FILL The Bearish GAP

A CLOSE Below 7400 Is STOP & REVERSE

NIFTY EOD:

BANK NIFTY:

BANK NIFTY Could Not Move As STRONG As NIFTY Because It Has A Sharp GAP DOWN OPEN On Friday

A Move Above 15682 Can Take BANK NIFTY Towards 15790

A Close Above 15800 Can Take BANK NIFTY Up To 16108-16205

BANK NIFTY: