Sunday, January 29, 2017

WEEKLY Technical View

Weekly Technical View For NIFTY & BANK NIFTY :
Our Markets Seems To Be Poised For A Great Bull Wave Which Could Last Till NIFTY Reaches Around 10600 Levels
I Will Try To Explain Why And What Is The Technical Requirements For Such A Strong Bull Run
First We Need To Observe Market Move On A Budget Day And Since We Will Have A Very Strong Bullish Candle On Monthly Charts Ideally Even If Budget Dissatisfy Markets We Will See A Sharp Panic Which Will Be Bought into Immediately
Next Will Be A Technical Indicator ,Stochastic Which Is Overbought On Weekly Charts And If In Next Few Weeks This Stochastics Comes Down Without Much Of Price Erosion We Will See An Explosive NIFTY Move
A BANKNIFTY Weekly Chart Posted Below Shows How STOCHASTIC Behaved Early 2016 And To Take NIFTY/BANK NIFTY Beyond 2015-2016 Highs I Believe We Will See Nearly Same Sort Of Movement In Coming Few Weeks
Here Is The Chart :


Identifying First IMPULSE:
This Is Very Critical To Anticipate Future Moves
Last 5 Weeks move in our markets look very identical to the bull move in March 2016 And When We Use Multi Time Frame Charts We Can Have Even More Conclusive Technical Evidence That We Are In For A Dream Bull Run Very Soon
As Can Be Seen On This Monthly Charts It is very Clear That The 4 Months Down Move Was Just A CORRECTION As The Move Took Support At 50% Fibonacci Retracement Levels ,Made Double Bottoms On Daily Chart And Now A Strong MORNING STAR Candle Reversal Pattern On Monthly Charts





NIFTY 50% Retracement :
NIFTY MONTHLY CHART :
How To Visualize Targets ?
Here is how I Have Set NIFTY Targets Of Around 10800 !
Again ,Identifying 1St Impulse Is Critical
A Way To Identify Targets Is A Combination Of Gann & Elliot
Look At This Quarterly NIFTY Chart Which Presumes That End 2008-Early 2009 Was An IMPULSE
The Last Green Arc Is the Target & A Probable Reversal Zone Which is Way Beyond 10k In A Few Quarters With A STOP Below 7890
Look How Two Red Arcs Were Proven To Be Strong Resistance Zones In 2010-11 & 2015-16
Another Way Of Predicting Targets Is Reverse Fibonacci Levels
I Have Used Reversed Fibonacci Levels Of Two Different Corrective Moves One A Larger 2015 Correction And Second The Very Recent 2016 Correction And I Have Noticed That Around 9700 And 10600 For NIFTY And 25400 For Bank Nifty We Have A Match of Different Fibo Levels As Shown On Charts Of Both
NIFTY :
BANK NIFTY:
We Can Safely Presume That Once 9000-9100 Zone Is Taken Out We Will See 9700-10600 Levels For NIFTY Very Easily
Candle Stick Analysis Point of view The Strong January Monthly Candle Is A Game Changer Otherwise Weaker December 2016 Quarter Had Suggested If There Was  DOUBLE TOP Kind Of Pattern On Nifty
The Middle Portion Of The January 2017 Candle Is A Strong Support Now Which Is Roughly Around 8250 So Unless We Have Large BEARISH Weekly Candle Close Below 8250 There Is A Very Very High Probabilty Of Our Markets Attaining Dizzy Heights
Also This Strong Up Move From December Lows Suggests We Will Have A Strong Verdict Favouring NAMO In Coming Five State Assembly Elections As Markets Discounts The Future Well In Advance






Wednesday, April 6, 2016

TECHNICAL VIEW

Technical View For NIFTY & BANK NIFTY:
We Have Seen A Very Smart Rally In Both The Major Indices Post Budget
A Major Event Awaited By The Markets Was RBI Policy Day And Just Before That The Move Especially In BNF Was A Perfect Rising Channel
Yesterday That Channel Has Been Decisively Broken So Unless BNF Moves Back Above 16000 On HOURLY CLOSING Basis I Feel We Are In For The 1st Major Correction POST BUDGET
1st Target Seems To Be 15220 And Next 14872 But We Will See Some Good Bounce Back From Around 15200
For NIFTY The Price Structure Seems Slightly Different And CONE Shaped
1st Supports Around 7600 But Once We Have A CLOSE Below 7600 And 7550 (Where We Have The TREND LINE Support),We Will See A SHARP Short Term Down Move Up To 7434
Here Are NF & BNF Charts
NF HOURLY:

BNF HOURLY:




Wednesday, March 9, 2016

A PROBABLE NIFTY MOVE


Tuesday, March 8, 2016

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

A Possible Big TREND REVERSAL ?

My Technical View For The Week 08032016:

NIFTY:

A Few Notes First From My Earlier Technical Views:

In My Weekly Chart Book On 11th Jan I Said This

'' After May Be A Minor Support Around 7550-7500 We Will See New Lows And First Probable Support/Target Zone Is 7422 Then 7330-7280 And Finally 7141-7118

But Once FLOOD Gates Open Up PANIC SELLING May Happen And Further New Lows Can Be Possible But Not Without Rallies In Between

We Are In 45TH Week Since NIFTY Made Its TOP In MARCH 2015 While In 50th WEEK Since BANK NIFTY Made Its TOP In 2015

55 Is A FIBONACCI Number So  We Will Have A Significant Bottom Around 12th Feb Or Around 19th March 2016''

In Nearly 8 Weeks Since We Witnessed What Happens When Flood Gates Open Up Once NIFTY Breached 7118 And NIFTY Made A Very Important CLOSING LOW At 6980 As Against Its INTRA DAY Low Of 6869 Exactly On 12Th February As Anticipated On 11th January.

Short Term Picture Of NIFTY :

I Wrote Just A Few Days Prior To Budget That When Immediate Resistance Levels Can Not Stop The Up Move It Will Be The First Sign Of A New Directional Move

As NIFTY Made A PANIC LOW At 6825 On The Budget Day And 7230 Which Was First Strong Hurdle Could Not Stop NIFTY To Move Up It Was Clear That We Are In For  Some Thing Else Then A Mere Corrective Post Budget Rally

I Had Given NIFTY Targets Of 7356-7396-7532 With A Clear Suggestion To Buy On Dips
SGX NIFTY Has Made A High Of 7535 Today So With Such A STRONG Short Term Up Move A Small Correction Should Be Expected Soon And It Will Be A Welcome Correction

There Are Bullish Gaps Which Should Support And Such A Correction Should End Above 7230
We May See Some Range Bound Move Before NIFTY Finally Crosses The Major Hurdle Around 7550 And Should Reach 7709-7726 Once Above 7550

Medium Term :

Since The Very Recent Up Move Seems To Be A Possible New Bull Move A Very Important Question Is That At Which Price Point The Up Move Can Pause And What Can Be Next Targets
If The Whole Down Move Initiated From 9119 Has Indeed Ended At 6825 The First Minimum Target Can Easily Be 7698

Next Would Be 7968

In This Case Too Any Corrective Down Move From Around 7550 Should Be Used To Enter Long
EOD NIFTY CHART:

If The Down Move Which Started From 23rd July 2015 At 8654 Has Ended At 7825 We Can Have An Upside Targets Of 7521-7736-7952
NIFTY EOD 2:

So In Both These Cases NIFTY Should Reach Around 7730 First And 7950 Next
This Is Possible Even If The Recent Up Move Proves To Be Just A Sharp Bear Market Rally
On Weekly Chart NIFTY Has Made A Variant Of MORNING STAR Candle Reversal Pattern Which Too Suggests Every Dip Should Be Bought In

BULLISH GAP At 7406-7380 Is Support And Next Big Support Is Another Gap At 7308-7222
If NIFTY CLOSEs Below 7222 Any Day Bullish Assumptions May Go Wrong But At This Juncture This Seems EXTREMELY DIFFICULT




WEEKLY CHART :

Also Note How NIFTY Has Took Support At The Long Term Trend line And Also At The LOWER END Of The Broadening Price Structure






Wednesday, March 2, 2016

A STRONG BOTTOM

A STRONG BOTTOM IN PLACE AT 6825-6869 PRICE ZONE:
Technical View For 02032016 And For Next Few Days:
12Th Feb Was One Date Where A Bottom Was Anticipated Our Markets Made Their LOWs On The Same Date
At That Time I Said A Bottom Seems To Be In Place But It Will Tested And Re Tested
Against That Low Of 6969 NIFTY Made A Low At 6970 On 17th Feb Another Low At 6961 On 25th Feb And One Final PANIC Low At 6825 On Budget Day
Yesterday Was Suggesting A STRONG BOTTOM Is In Place
Targets 7356-7396-7532
Buy On Dips Is Advised




Friday, February 26, 2016

Tech View

MARKET VIEW For 26022016:
NIFTY:
7037-6965 Were 1st Two Targets Below Which 6943-6865 Too Possible And Yesterday NIFTY Did Close Exactly @6965
Looking At World Markets A GAP UP Open Is Possible And Expect Some Up Side In The Hope For A Good Budget
7066 Is First Possible Target If NIFTY Closes 1st Hour Above 7019
7100 Will Be Next Possible Target And Resistance Too
It Is A Big Event Day Coming So Wait & Watch Must Be An Ideal Strategy
NIFTY EOD:

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

NIFTY TARGETs 7118-6880-6600

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 08022016:

Markets Always Produces POSSIBILITIES Of Larger Moves On Either Side So A Technical Analyst Has To Weigh Different Evidences To Judge The HIGHER SIDE Probability

Technical Analysis Is A SCIENCE OF VISION If There Is Clarity The Prediction Can Be On Track But When There Is Fog In The Air The Vision Too Gets Disrupts

When There Is NO CLARITY One Should Be Honest Enough To Accept It Till The Sun Shines To Make The Vision Clear

MIXED SIGNALS:

NIFTY May Have A STRONG BOTTOM In Place At 7230 But Once BROKEN There Can Be A One Way Deep & Panicking Fall To 7118 And Even Up To Around 6600

BANK NIFTY Too May Have A STRONG DOUBLE BOTTOM In Place At 14700 But Once Broken It Can Easily & Swiftly Plunge Towards 13332

So Its Better Wait And Watch

A FEW NEGATIVES :

DOW JONES AND S&P Are At SUPPORTS But Once Broken Below Recent Lows Can Bring In Severe Panic In The WORLD MARKETs
DAX Too Is At SUPPORTs But Has Given A WORST WEEKLY CLOSE In Many Months And Seems To Be On The Verge Of A Big BREAK DOWN

A FEW POSITIVES:

Four Leading Banks Are Showing Signs Of Immense Strength And Will Lead The New Bull Phase From Around Middle Of 2016 Onwards

They Are KOTAK ,HDFC BANK,INDUSIND BANK,YESBANK

NSE MIDCAP INDEX Has No Signs Of Any BREAK DOWN As Yet When We Compare It With NIFTY & BANKNIFTY

NIFTY Levels To Watch:

NIFTY Has CLOSED Above One BEARISH GAP At 7448 So If It Sustains Above 7448 NIFTY Can Attempt The Earlier Important Resistance At 7551-7600
A CLOSE Above 7600 Will Be Again Positive

A CLOSE Below 7360 Will Be EXTREMELY Negative

BANK NIFTY:

A  CLOSE Below 15145 Will Be NEGATIVE
And If BNF Closes Monday Above 15210 Again It Can Attempt At 15500-15600
A CLOSE Above 15600 Will Be Very POSITIVE