a top hns ??????

A TOP? REALLY?

Target reached..expected a pause..it paused..some indication were in place ,suggested that it can be a real top.pressure on selling side stsrted to show -up...one must remember that only lack of buying can cause crashes..higher selling volume, not needed.
lower top -lower bottom formation on daily charts in some stocks, visible.
two bearish structures on daily and weekly charts were seen.
now i will wait for WEAKER CORRECTIVE RISE..from supports..in coming days..
my system will give buy calls on daily charts and will fail.this will be the most important confirmation for me, to have a top in place.
i can visualise a top hns on indices..if that happens,we will set lower tgts.
a few days rally will have tobe closely monitored. all signs of a major top are there.some bad news coming either from or for reliance group as a whole ??..a close above 5053..is tobe watched.

MARKETS ARE AT A VERY VERY INTERESTING STAGE

A big bull run started from march-09 may have ended..ta is a tool, that can help is identify turning points,but how to identify that which rally has ended ??..there are different portions of a rally..(up or down)..we have seen last major bottom in march-09,since than there have been different segments of the rally..the latest one started from july-09.,now the recent top ,that we have seen was an exact tgt ,i had recommended in july-09,,,observing a few technical tools,i can say that an important top in place..provided nifty cant close above 5109.
now, the question arises is which rally has ended ???,the one started in july-09 or the big one from march 09 ??..frankly its foolish to guess now..
Looking at daily charts of some major stocks like reliance,rel cap.,larsen,rel infra,bhel,icici bank,,auto-it majors,all now have been under some severe selling pressure.
as against hdfc,hdfc bank,bhel,some fmcg stocks are still getting rallies.
Level wise, 4910-4876 are trend decider LEVEL for nifty.
supports will EMERGE from these levels..it will be very crucial to see ,how some weaker stocks behave when nifty takes supports.also ,it will be very very important to see, what sort of a pattern developes from 4876-4910..and ALSO how MY SYSTEM BEHAVES ,in the bounce back.
all in all markets are at a very important and interesting stage ,readers should be very very cautious in creating buying positions at nifty supports.

confirmation A LITTLE BIT AWAY

bearishness in india markets, seems tobe getting counter attck from us markets.naturally ,we may have hit an important top,looking at the selling pressure seen yesterday,but as i said in the earlier post,4910 is the major level below 5046 to watch.we have seen a very steep fall on hourly charts,such fall cant easily be digested..so expect a corrective rise only..and i hope that we shouldnt close above 5076 for nifty..
the expanding structure i mentioned is giving supports,but it will important to have a rather WEAK support.to continue the downward journey.
a caution..dont ever expect a drastic fall like 2008..this time.markets can do whatever it likes..we have always tobe prepared for all circumstances.

nifty even after gap-up opening, failed at highs around 5046..which was as mentioned earlier..was a strong support level to watch,was broken decisively yesterday,today gave resistance.
reliance chart and comment on it ,posted a few days back is self explanatory..same chart updated n posted today.

A TOP INDEED

a top indeed...when i projected 5190 in july-09,many must have got surprised..but i never have even thought ,that 5190 would work not only as a tgt but even as such strong resistance..well..i did got a few hints ,when i said abt weakness in it-auto sector a few days back,and the rising wedge and expanding structure in hourly-daily charts, with supply increasing at my tgt helped me to predict a top.
sincerely its gods grace that i have realy been able to mix up few technical points so nicely and effectively.
without even going into hi-fi ta like e-waves or neo-waves,sometimes i have used candle-power,or,sector weakness,or reliance or stochastics, roc-rsi in this move,at times few patterns, and sometimes its the use of multitime frame charts.
if the trendline(as posted in charts)doesnt support..or a weaker supports comes(my sytem will identify strength/weakness)..than we are in for lower tgts of 4910-4876--4791.

A CLOSE BELOW 5013 AND 4910 COMING

NIFTY LEVELS FOR MINOR SUPPORTS to watch today

5046------5032-------5013......if nifty closes below 5013 than i think ,we are in for a move upto 4910

5190 DONE .......NOW WHAT ???

Today nifty made a high of 5182..i would consider 5190 tgt given here in july-09 done.this level was a target as an important resistance level.on the muhurrat day, nifty high was 5175..todays high was 5182,we have seen some intraday burst of selling at our levels,,with auto-it already off their highs and not recovering too soon...and reliance showing weakness today,suggests that we may have hit a short term top..confirmation nedded..a technical confirmation comes in many ways ,for some it can be only a lower top-lower bottom, for others it can be some ma crossovers..for me 5046 oct nifty future is the level to watch,a more valid one will be a breach of 4910, but i think that could be a quite late confirmation for day traders.rsi/roc/bbands in nifty/reliance JUST have started to show something.lets share.a faster move below 5046 will work for bears, but such a move above 5152 oct f nifty can VERY EASILY NEGATE all short term bearish probabilities.

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL READERS

I WISH ALL MY READERS a very very happy and prosperous new year...AND I HOPE MY BLOGGING MAY HAVE HELPED MY READERS IN CATCHING ALL MOVES TILL DATE......
I am so pleased that on the muhurrat day itself nifty made a high of exact 5175...which was our target.
still theres no sign of reversal of a trend.......AS ON DATE...i will be here to guide readers if indeed i find reversal happening.
Level wise oct-future nifty has 5046 as a turning point.a move below this may confirm short term reversal of the trend.

5175-5190 today ?

unfortunately,i am away off markets today....but will remember today for long...after the post-budget crash,almost everyone was thinking of a dip correction..but within a few days upmove from my supports at 3938..i came out with a target of 5190...in late july-09..and have been able to track the whole move from there on..almost always supports-resistence given here have worked, and vow !!!!!!!! today we are almost to my targets.
also on 16th oct 2008..when the whole WORLD was bearish..i came out with loud and clear messege,TIME TO INVEST IN INDIA...it was my inner voice,came out with gods grace, and exactly after an year...i am very pleased with that article.

my trading system

a buy call is generated on daily charts of sensex/nifty....will fail only if nifty breaches 4910 on closing basis.

5175----5330 coming as 4910 not broken

i thought this time around nifty will breach 4910..although supports were mentioned at 4872...market teaches a lesson again...WHO AM I TO THINK ??..i m nothing against the superpower.!!!!!!!!..it seems a new top is coming in a few days for sure..i wrote on my blog that there can be a buy call from my trading system on dow weekly charts..so we are heading for 5175...5330

WATCH 4872 FOR NIFTY

4910-492not0 ZONE is a support zone for nifty,looking at reversal patterns on daily-weekly charts of some pivotals,i think after some efforts to hold the levels,nifty should go down upto 4872 area,which is a very crucial level to watch.
This should be breached and MUST not be recovered too soon.
A big positive for bulls, is the strenth of dow/s&p weekly charts,i think my system will generate a buy call this week, even if us markets pull back somewhat at the end of current week.
As per my earlier post it/auto will be weak for some more time,their pull back may ultimately prove tobe only a consolidation phase on weekly charts, after a few weeks,but we will look a this possibilty later.

TECHINCALS RULES AGAIN.

Since past few days,i had been mentioning about some weakness in these rally"s leaders..i.e. auto and it stocks..look at the maruti chart and infy chart..and readers would understand how helpful technical analysis can be..since infy was to declare its results yesterday..i dont remember, if any analyst predicted a crack in its price. few days back i said weaknes in it/auto and i posted here my view with charts,,even after great results and even better forcast..infy contnued its down move.

Two reasons are there..one is a very simple fact that generally markets discounts the future...such good results have had been priced in...second my trading system generated a sell call two days back.

Nifty couldnt cross 5052 breached 4972 struggled there for 1-2 hours, but than at around 4980 my system generated a sell call in 15 min charts..and it crashed heavily.

A TREND DECIDER ZONE ESTABLISHED

After some confusion,,i have been able to analyse nifty a little better today.a very clear trend decider zone is established now. a move of nifty future below 4972.should give short traders a 100 points down move upto 4872..with a pause/supports at 4915 (will have to look at it ,how nifty behaves at 4915)...BUT a close above 5052..may again create possibilities of another leg of an upmove.

volatility has been in place and different stocks have started to move in different direction very fast.so for a top to have been placed nifty future must not close above 5052.

a top is nearby or it may have been in place.

generally huge volatility happens at major tops-bottoms..we are witnessing the fight between bulls and bears getting intensified, since last few days,all possibilities are there that we have seen atleast a short/med term top,in my opinion this weeks closing will clarify most of the doubts.being a ta..at times you feel that markets are difficult to predict,i admit these days for me too its been not that easy,although my trading system is helpong me out as far as intraday calls n intraday trading is concerned.i can see an expanding bearish structure in nifty intraday charts,,lots of bearish candle patterns are visible on so many pivotals, and weekly bearish wedge on indices.with major support at 4877 for nifty,i feel that we may have seen a top

MY TRADING SYSTEM IN SUCH VOLATILE MARKETS

A VERY CAUTIOUS UNDER-CURRENT

At the highs, markets are showing some weakness, but the level to watch will be 4966-4978..unltill nifty futures hold these levels every dip will be bought.it has truely become very difficult to predict medium term future at this juncture..bullishness may continue if some biggies surprise markets with better than expected sept-q results..strong support lies in the zome 4750-4850 also which will decide med term future,for short term 4966-4978 is crucial.

NIFTY SUPPORTS

NEAR TARGETS

Sensex and Nifty near targets., as i said 2 days back, that if 4910 is not breached and markets remains above this levels for 2-3 days, the upward journey will resume, the other day nifty came upto 4929..and today it crossed all hurdles of past few days and closed at this years highs.

As i had posted some charts showing INITIAL weakness in leaders of the current rally...auto and it stocks,,heres the sensex chart, a weekly one which suggests a RISING WEDGE on weekly charts.

Readers must understand, that a break of support line of the wedge, is only the confirmation of the PATTERN and not THE PATTERN ALONE.