Tuesday, October 27, 2009
lower top -lower bottom formation on daily charts in some stocks, visible.
two bearish structures on daily and weekly charts were seen.
now i will wait for WEAKER CORRECTIVE RISE..from supports..in coming days..
my system will give buy calls on daily charts and will fail.this will be the most important confirmation for me, to have a top in place.
i can visualise a top hns on indices..if that happens,we will set lower tgts.
a few days rally will have tobe closely monitored. all signs of a major top are there.some bad news coming either from or for reliance group as a whole ??..a close above 5053..is tobe watched.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
now, the question arises is which rally has ended ???,the one started in july-09 or the big one from march 09 ??..frankly its foolish to guess now..
Looking at daily charts of some major stocks like reliance,rel cap.,larsen,rel infra,bhel,icici bank,,auto-it majors,all now have been under some severe selling pressure.
as against hdfc,hdfc bank,bhel,some fmcg stocks are still getting rallies.
Level wise, 4910-4876 are trend decider LEVEL for nifty.
supports will EMERGE from these levels..it will be very crucial to see ,how some weaker stocks behave when nifty takes supports.also ,it will be very very important to see, what sort of a pattern developes from 4876-4910..and ALSO how MY SYSTEM BEHAVES ,in the bounce back.
all in all markets are at a very important and interesting stage ,readers should be very very cautious in creating buying positions at nifty supports.
bearishness in india markets, seems tobe getting counter attck from us markets.naturally ,we may have hit an important top,looking at the selling pressure seen yesterday,but as i said in the earlier post,4910 is the major level below 5046 to watch.we have seen a very steep fall on hourly charts,such fall cant easily be digested..so expect a corrective rise only..and i hope that we shouldnt close above 5076 for nifty..
the expanding structure i mentioned is giving supports,but it will important to have a rather WEAK support.to continue the downward journey.
a caution..dont ever expect a drastic fall like 2008..this time.markets can do whatever it likes..we have always tobe prepared for all circumstances.
reliance chart and comment on it ,posted a few days back is self explanatory..same chart updated n posted today.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
a top indeed...when i projected 5190 in july-09,many must have got surprised..but i never have even thought ,that 5190 would work not only as a tgt but even as such strong resistance..well..i did got a few hints ,when i said abt weakness in it-auto sector a few days back,and the rising wedge and expanding structure in hourly-daily charts, with supply increasing at my tgt helped me to predict a top.
sincerely its gods grace that i have realy been able to mix up few technical points so nicely and effectively.
without even going into hi-fi ta like e-waves or neo-waves,sometimes i have used candle-power,or,sector weakness,or reliance or stochastics, roc-rsi in this move,at times few patterns, and sometimes its the use of multitime frame charts.
if the trendline(as posted in charts)doesnt support..or a weaker supports comes(my sytem will identify strength/weakness)..than we are in for lower tgts of 4910-4876--4791.
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
I am so pleased that on the muhurrat day itself nifty made a high of exact 5175...which was our target.
still theres no sign of reversal of a trend.......AS ON DATE...i will be here to guide readers if indeed i find reversal happening.
Level wise oct-future nifty has 5046 as a turning point.a move below this may confirm short term reversal of the trend.
Thursday, October 15, 2009
also on 16th oct 2008..when the whole WORLD was bearish..i came out with loud and clear messege,TIME TO INVEST IN INDIA...it was my inner voice,came out with gods grace, and exactly after an year...i am very pleased with that article.
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Monday, October 12, 2009
This should be breached and MUST not be recovered too soon.
A big positive for bulls, is the strenth of dow/s&p weekly charts,i think my system will generate a buy call this week, even if us markets pull back somewhat at the end of current week.
As per my earlier post it/auto will be weak for some more time,their pull back may ultimately prove tobe only a consolidation phase on weekly charts, after a few weeks,but we will look a this possibilty later.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Friday, October 9, 2009
After some confusion,,i have been able to analyse nifty a little better today.a very clear trend decider zone is established now. a move of nifty future below 4972.should give short traders a 100 points down move upto 4872..with a pause/supports at 4915 (will have to look at it ,how nifty behaves at 4915)...BUT a close above 5052..may again create possibilities of another leg of an upmove.
volatility has been in place and different stocks have started to move in different direction very fast.so for a top to have been placed nifty future must not close above 5052.