Tuesday, April 28, 2009

accumulation before the burst

nifty once crossed 3376,indeed resume its uptrend once again, and even amid weak world markets made highs at around 3515 levels,,in my opinion if today nifty cant close above 3520,our markets could atleast enter a sideways zone of 3295-3515 range,at present it seems that this zone will only prove tobe an accumulation before rising and breaking this zone again,provided it doesnt give a close below 3295.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

crucial days ahead

for nifty 3309 is stll working as a support,,though breached for a while intraday yesterday,but still holds true as ,somehow nifty managed to close above it.for the upside now a close above 3376 should be enough to resume the uptrend.
on 29th march, i mentioned about a probable head and shoulder pattern developing on dow chart...at that point of time there was no right shoulder at all,so i wrote that ,it will be crucial how a few weeks time passes on ,,,http://www.bestfreecharts.com/?emailChartID=f1e96e3c-f6e9-436b-98b2-028dcb611cf6&gclid=CPTq86iJ0pkCFRcJbwodjDcQvA open this link and one can easily see right shoulder on dow chart ,,,now !!.
a word of caution here......though it seems that inverted h&s is developing on dow,,,,it needs a break-out of the neckline...approx. recent high.....and another look on dow daily chart also suggests that ,,may be a rounding top pattern is forming on the daily charts....so if dow cant break out of its recent highs in a few days time,,,,the whole rally may fizzle out...this is all technical analysis is all about..in any case though a big trading opportunity is on the cards on either side.
nifty has supports at around 3300,,,and 3128 levels ,so watch these levels.
......jai sai nath....

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

short term investment

nifty respects supports and resistance levels :::: on monday morning before markets opened ,i wrote here on my blog,that for a deeper correction nifty should close below 3309 and for a rise should close above 3440,,,and mondays high was 3440,,,tuesdays low was 3309,,respecting both levels nifty closed at 3365,almost exactly inbetwwen,nifty on the daily charts produced a doji pattern,suggecting we may have seen the short term low,,markets should resume their upward journey..soon.
some short term investment ideas.
1)bata india 128 tgt 140
2)naga.ferti 23 29
3)chambal fert 47 55
4)bom. dyei 193 216----240
5)sail 109 120----128
6)moser baer 64 73-----81
7)electro therm 150 169
8)tv-18 95 112
9)rnrl 58 66-----73
10)gammon infra 68 80
enjoy the bullride....bjnaik@hotmail.com..9925673239.

Monday, April 20, 2009

target intact ?

a small corrective phase may have been started from around 3500 nifty level,,,but looking at intraday chart pattern ,i feel that if nifty gives a close below 3309 by tuesday---wednesday,,than only a little longer correction ma set in ,,,on the other side if nifty gives a close above 3440 within next 2-3 days,,,we will reach 3650-3700 levels before election results.

Sunday, April 12, 2009

nifty target 3700

Our markets continue their up-ward journey, correcting for only a few hours..showing great strenth..surprising so many participants,in my opinion this is a classic bottom formation,and not a SHORT TERM ,but, a MAJOR BOTTOM has been in place,,,if we look at the price pattern, its a RECTANGLE BREAK -OUT,giving projection for nifty at around 3700..i always advocate using multiple tools to identify major reversals and also to project the PROBABLE target.as one can see in the following chart , as theres a clear break-out of rectangle pattern ,formed in between 3100-2500 (a 600 p range),,which projects 3700 for nifty (3100+600= 3700).

here ,i want to show you how this rectangle tgt is supported by applying different techniques of fibonacci.first i have observed many a times that, when a significant top or bottom forms,,its last leg is retraced by 2.618% by the first leg itself of the new move.as shown on the daily chart of nifty the last leg of jan-08 top was from 5673--6354...as the bear market started ,its first leg went up-to approx 4550...now as u can see 4570 was 261.8% of the last leg of the bull rally.

now, see this chart of nifty,,,we can see that the last leg of this bear market rally was from 2967--2532,,as we put fibonacci retracements ,,3670 is the 261.8% of this last bear leg....so this projection is in line with the rectangle tgt.

One very well known use of fibonacci retracements is finding out supports-resistance using prev. tops-bottoms..as shown in this chart 4646 was a major top of the bear rally ended in may-08 ,61.8% retracement of may-08 top to october lows is at 3733..this also matches our nifty tgt of around 3700.

I have found an innovative use of fibonacci in projecting tgts ...in this case..when you see a strong move going on ,,(bull rally in our case),just take the bottom as start point of fibonacci retracement and than DRAG IT UPTO THE POINT IN FUTURE so that previous tops (which are resistances now) matches with 38.2%...50.0% and 61.8% AS IF THEY WILL BECOME SUPPORTS....a look at the attached chart will clarify my view,,the dragged point becomes our target. in our case 3658 is the projected target for nifty.12658 comes as the target for sensex.

at 3658,,,,,3230 is 38.2%....which is an imp nov top...3098 is 50.0%...which is jan-09 top of the rectangle.....2966 is the 61.8%...which is feb 09 top and also the top of the last bear rally...so using three different ways of fibonacci retracements aroound 3700 should be nifty target and also important top of the current rally.........sunny days are here again.

Monday, April 6, 2009

higher bottom formation is inevitable

so..a rally of around 400 nifty points in a few days, after charts suggested that we may have hit a bottom,(all probabilities that nifty will touch 3300 today morning),,i have been constantly advocating my view abt. markets that THEY USUALLY DISCOUNT FUTURE IN ADVANCE...economies worldwide if are going to revive after 6 months to 1 years period, markets should bottom-out around now !!!!!!! they are doing precisely the same...i also wrote a few weeks before that WAVE COUNTS CAN GET AND WILL BE CHANGED AFTERWARDS...and my guess is proving right here again,,will give views of vivek patil ,well known neo wave theorist,on my blog tomorrow.his earlier count suggested that sensex should finish a larger degree A wave around 6500..but now it will be changed..can this rally continue its upward journey ???

yes ,it can ,,but a big correction is due any time,coz. confirmation of a strong bottom comes only after a price pattern develops...loke a double bottom..or a higher bottom..loking at the strenth of this rally ,i am expecting a higher bottom formation for our markets.

89 dema is giving a very good clue to the long term trend trend for us..look at the chart of sensex with 89 dema ,,see how strong resistance it was...and now it has started supporting ..

Wednesday, April 1, 2009