Friday, March 14, 2008

divergance effect on DOW

YESTERDAY NIGHT WHEN I STARTED POSTING MY ARTICLE..bottom...dow was down 225 odd points,i felt the heat of it,but i said to a friend it must recover from this lows ,today itself,as there is a very very strong divergance in weekly stochastics,and vow!!!!!!!!!!!!! on bloomberg ,came the news from s&p, that it sees the end of writedowns..the devil of all the havoc is on the verge of getting disappeared,,,and suddenly dow started to bounce- back..i thought even a bearish hammer with some 50 odd points negative close would be an enough trigger for our,,it closed in plus..and i said to myself this is how technicals works...

Thursday, March 13, 2008


there are fiew important things tobe noted about current technical status of our market...and dow...1}dow has given a strong positive divergance on WEEKLY CHARTS ..a divergance is a pure technical term which suggests that an indicator is DIVERTING itself from actual price action...2}as tomorrows market also seems to open will give the same divergence in DAILY charts..for both sensex and nifty..3}there are certain fibonaci supports for sensex and nifty 4425,4429,4479....14966,14723,14673 ...4}one imp sensex high which should support is 14908..5}one important weekly moving average which has supported sensex since every fall untill 89 week ma..which is currently at 15198..this is a very very important trade decider for our current bull market.for nifty it is 4487....6} i have seen on sensex and nifty charts an imp daily ma has been giving a very good support is 377 day{a fibonacci no} day ema for sensex its at 15606 and for nifty it is at 4606..7} an all important trendline on which our current bull run has been riding since it at the same sensex levels where all above supports are lying at present ..15100 and 4480 ..8} weekly stochastic is in oversold zone with daily giving divergance ...this 2 periods combination as an interpretation works very well even on intraday should work in few days also..(9) with all these .i have seen over the years that market behaves on its own ,,,and as if its a living entity in never does which almost every participant thinks that he knows where the market will you ask anyone..12000 for sensex is the most common target for everyone !!!!!..i think market will bounce back much before these commonly anticipated levels...all in all in my opinion we are almost at the BOTTOM...last but not the least..i have one very good observation on fibonacci retracements..after a fall when an index gets into accumulation or distribution phase that distribution phase normally ends at a point .which is the point that when u join the top and the bottom the accumulation zone lies at around and MOSTLY in between 38.2 and 61.8 zone..just have a look at the current accumulation zone 17341 and 18391 are two ratios if u take 14900 a probable bottom...and u can clearly see that sensex was clearly distributed between those levels before it broke down................................................................WITH BEST WISHES TO ALL....BHAVESH J NAIK. 21:11 13/03/2008