Saturday, January 30, 2010

crucial few days ahead.

Nifty plunged from 5310 to a matter of few days,after i warned of a MAJOR TOP...
a bounce back from extreme short term oversold zone was inevitable.

we have seen, three sharp falls, since budget..after all such efforts from the bears, the markets recovered very reach new highs.
the last one is fourth one.more importantly ,this one came only a month before the full year budget and seemingly improved economy.
looking at charts, and looking the way how important trendlines got broken ,this time...i feel it will be very difficult for bulls this time.
since nifty has fallen from 5310---4756 today..a recovery was unevitable...thats what we have seen today.i think, buy wednesday,the picture will be very much clear,weather the rally started today, is infact a lower top formation or not.

AFTER previous two major sell-offs, clearly visible on weekly chart presented over can identify..weekly candle reversal was piercing line and the other was a hammer
but importantly this time around ,even after a smart recovery from lows on the last day of the week, theres no important candle pattern.
SO , for any bullish ness now onwards...we need a candle reversal pattern on weekly basis.

ONE can see, how two major indicators namely ,rsi --roc ,have warned us against IMMEDIATE bullishness. rsi was signalling strong negative divergance and roc made a topping pattern.
remeber that the roc chart was presented here..few weeks back..way before the actual confirmation of the H&S PATTERN ON IT.

ANOTHER major concern for bulls as per me is the bearish candle reversal patterns indices and most major stocks on MONTHLY charts.
which means, that any rise in the month of february, should now be considered as selling oppprtunity, for lower targets near 4536 and below.

more on sectorial study...later

Friday, January 29, 2010

triangle break in banknifty

Bank nifty has broken out of a triangle pattern

reality sector is the weakest one

reality sector stocks are on the verge of breaking down from a rectangle pattern ,with sell call on sector index from my system on weekly charts, and most of them have very low targets.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

nifty roc

This weekly roc chart was presented here, a few weeks back.
it will be little too early,,but still i can presume the target of around 12827--12743 for sensex,if indeed an intermediate top has been in place.intrestigly the 200 week ema is currently placed at 13244,if the fall continues, in a few months,it will be another support at around 12800.


After seeing the crash, in last few days,,now people are talking about a crash below 2200.
but in my humble opinion, we have seen a major top t 5310..on medium term basis and a multi year bottom 2252 in oct-08..looking at the yearly charts of so many major indian stocks, the coming fall in 2010-2011(as i dont know, when we will see a higher bottom in place (against 2252),i am mentioning 2010-11....)will be the best ever buying opportunity, for a muti year bull run.
i even dont forsee, march-09 bottom to get cracked.
double bottom scenario is possible only for reality sector,as they were the worst performer in 2009.
it- auto will only correct upto no more than 50% of the 2009 rise.

Friday, January 22, 2010


ON 12TH JAN-2010..I WROTE THIS.....

Tuesday, January 12, 2010


This article, i am writing to be able to help investors. nifty is merely 100 points down from the recent high of 5310. my target was 5325, missed by a few points.
my trading system has generated a buy call on nifty, on daily charts yesterday.
why than,,my article title is ..a top near by??..........well a mechanised trading system is what ?? a mechanised one, nothing else. manual observation is the key for analysis.

i am not saying that,, market is going to crash immediately,,,but for me time is near by where an investor should start being in cash.
more on this,, with charts...later.

Friday, January 15, 2010

my calls on my website

DateScriptBuy/Sell Hint RateStoplossTarget Result
15-01-2010No Call During the day
14-01-2010 Nifty Buy btst 5218 adivced to book 5270
5300 call Buy btst47 --do-- 60
Rel capBuywas btst907advised to book919
Cent textBuywas btst558--do--High 575
Jsw steelBuybtst1135--do--high 1185
DlfBuybtst485--do--high 494
Brfldelievery based for few days202del. call216
India cem----do---129132
cent textbuy
561553575--583575 yday,,588 today
Lic hBuy835book 3 rs loss
13-01-2010Abansold at 1473 yesterday1432 low
Dlfsold yday390-386377 low
jsw steelsold y day11211101 low
jsw steelsellbelow1114covered1105
5200 putbuy9083covered98
niftybuybtst above 522052185246
5300 callbuy47booked55
JswBuyAbove 1135 hold11351149
Rel capBuybtst907914
Cent textbuybtst558562
sail buy del. based buy yday 237 243
Dlfsellsell more below 386390383
jsw steelsellstbt1121
nifty 5300 callbuybuy at any dip60-6580
niftybuybuy in any fall sl 52205226