a strong bounce back from supports

on 24 th august i wrote here that if next 2 weeks markets are unable stop the loosing streak we are sure to see july lows,,,which are offcourse very very strong supports for india markets,yesterday i posted an article suggesting that we may first see a bounce upto 4200-4300 and 14300 levels,than we may get supports at 3790...12500 levels,,,i also said that the strenth in sbi .larsen ,ntpc and monthly structure of reliance suggests that the july lows will be giving strong support to our markets ....but what a moove in just two days,!!!!!!!!,today it touched 3799 amidst strong bearishness the world over..i do not think any one would have given a thought of such a strong and mighty bounce back..but thats markets for you,,a strong double bottom formation on daily charts.just a day left in the week,if inflation figures can give pleasent surprise,,tomorrow too this rally can get extended which will form a weekly hammer pattern in indices and also in some major stocks so who knows ....we again may have seen a very very strong bottom.perhaps much stronger than when these levels were hit in july-08...and remember to have a glance at india charts and compare them with the world market charts.

what lies ahead for india markets ??

as i wrote on 24th august,that next two weeks are crucial for the markets,if the downtrend is not arrested we may see a crash upto july lows...markets behaved as suspected ( not expected !!)..the news of nsg waiver for india could only make a lower top on the daily charts,and the week- end closing completed the lower top-lower bottom bottom formation,,despite good IIP numbers,,,followed by possible one of the worst news on usa financial crisis...lehmen gone...merryl taken-over and aig in deep trouble...played is roll in taking the indices very much near to the july lows..but having seen some strong value buying at lower levels..a question arises as usual whats next ??...here i am trying to explain a few possibilities..
1} the most optimistic possibility is that the indian markets may have tasted the july lows by remaing a little higher..nifty at around 3900...against 3790...and sensex at 13000 against 12500...in both indices and on both GAAPED DOWN days indices have succeded in taking supports at around 78.6% of the rise..{an imp fib level}...and infact on both days closed above this levels.now, there is a visible h&s topping pattern on both indices ..targets of which have been achieved..but the neckline of the h&S will prove tobe resistance for the next up move..at around 4280 and 14300 levels in nifty and sensex..using fibonacci tool we can resitance levels at 14316..{50 % of the entire fall} and 14332 {38.2% of the recent fall } for sensex...4284 and 4313..for nifty so , in my opinion as the resistance levels meet from three angles at around 14300 and 4300..we should first see these levels...remember as usual markets bottom out in unusual fundamental situations and india markets have clearly shown their strenth against its asian peers..compare the charts of hanseng with sensex and the picture will be very much clear...if the firts possibilty really turns out to be a reality,, we will than have to check what happens at the resistance levels..if we have hit the deck than naturally after giving some reaction indices will continue the upward journey.
2}a little bit otimistic possibilty is that indices will get resisted at the above mentioned resistance levels,and come back to the july lows..but their rally from yesterdays lows to around 4300 and 14300 will give a boost to the important indicators and they will generate a buy call creating positive divergances when indices hit the july lows{ breaking yesterdays lows}...thus creating fair chances of strong double bottom formation in indices,,,remember that july lows are the strong support levels...
3} the more pessimistic scenerio will be that indices will not even cross the 14000 and 4200 levels and fall back sharply to continue the lower top- lower bottom formations nad touch the last major supports at 11907 and 3610 levels..looking at the movement in certain heavy weight stocks ,like sbi ,bhel, larsen, ntpc...and most importantly looking at the monthly chart structure of reliance industries i DO NOT SEE our indices going below 11907 and 3610 in any circumstances..
also ,with this writing i am presenting a chart of nifty-1 minute ,a few days back..which seems as a copy of the longer term sensex chart..and i do favour a consolidation in indices around these levels i.e. betn. 12000-17000 for may be 2-3 years before breaking upwards..and as i have written on my blog about the advance mooves that reliance capital takes,, ahead of nifty..i am presenting an hourly chart of reliance capital and nifty as on yesterday ..it s clear that capital broke the monday high at the hour ended at 3:00 pm..and nifty will break the same level today morning..showing again that capital leads..and a weekly chart of capital is showing an inverted h&S pattern..if that completes ,who knows we may really have hit a bottom !!!!!!!Wednesday, ...bjn.

logic of big players and media

want to express my thoughts on logic of {sometimes very confusing and even seemingly funny logic},big market players and media........when oil was shooting up from around 110 usd levels,concerns were expressed that high oil prices will adversly affect the economy,,viz..high inflation-------higher interest rates----so higher cost of mony for the companies-----lower profits----slow down of the economy,,,oil reached 140s and fear gripped even the analysts...in the meantime oil started its southward journy---but within a period of 2-3 months the central bank tightened its measures,,,resulting in higher interest rates,,,so now every one said it will be a very heavy slow-down,,,economic figures responded this thought briefly during may-june..but bounced back smartly as per the figures released yesterday...now intersting things started to happen,,,oil tanks to 100 usd...a massive erosion of 47 usd per barrel in a short 2-3 months period,,,comments from media ???? economies world over are so much in bearish mood that they will consume lesser oil..so lower demand and lower price..naturally !!!!!!!!!....untill almost yesterday media expected the economy to slow-down ,,right ??? suddenlY the IIP data showed that they were much stronger THAN WERE EXPECTED !!!!!!!!!!...after the data were released the markets bounced back from their intraday lows very smartly...untill 2:45 pm picture looked quite rosy..that markets are welcoming good iip numbers...last funny act starts here...banks which were up smartly from their lows of the day..suddenly started crashing..and so were the indices....thoughts of big players and media ??? very very intersting.....now that economy has showed its so called underlying strenth ,,,the central bank CAN take more steps in the direction of tightening..ANOTHER HIKE IN THE INTEREST RATES..{economy is so strong it can withstand it}...and so more pressure on banks ..so they are tanking !!!!!!!!!!...intersting and funny ,isnt it ???

HOW THE NEW INDICATOR HAS WORKED IN LIVE MARKETS TODAY

HI,SEE THE 1 MIN CHARTS ATTACHED HERE,,,, OF NIFTY AND REL CAPITAL..ITS LIKE BELIEVE IT OR NOT...BUT WORKIN IN LIVE MARKETS,BOTH WAYS..CAPITAL BROKE THE MORNING LOWS A FEW MINS. EARLIER TO NIFTY.....NIFTY FOLLOWED WITH A CRACK...THAN CAPITAL MADE A DOUBLE BOTTOM REVERSAL PATTERN AGAIN FEW MINS. EARLIER THAN NIFTY...NIFTY FOLLOWED BY A RISE OF SOME GOOD 30 ODD POINTS.....................CAPITAL LEADS..

a new INDICATOR revealed for the indian markets

hi,i have seen this stuff almost a year back,when i found its been repeating itself almost everytime,,,i started to study it on intraday basis,and vow !! i was happily surprised how stunning ,how accurate it was..yes its a new indicator for india markets....i am not talking about a formulae..or another calulation stuff..its one leading stock..which actually leads nifty mooves..as an analyst and as a trader whenever i was confused about next move in nifty..had a glance a rel capital intraday charts { even 1 min charts has answer } and vow!!! i almost always got a clue..presenting sixcharts ,each of nifty and rel. capital...see by yourself how dynamic my ADVANCE INDICATOR is...