My Trading system (contd.)

Mymail account and yahoomessenger has been flooded with enquries about my trading system, I am thankful to the readers. an i am posting intraday charts of last few days, of different stocks that got buy-sell calls during markets hours.

My trading system

I have over the years, found some very innovative techniques of using, some technical tools like fibonacci ratios..which have already been discussed overhere, and use of reliance capital as a SMART INDICATOR to nifty.. ( a very detailed article was posted here, almost a year back ), even yesterday, r-cap couldnt cross its highs around 970.. and if u see and compare r-cap and nifty charts (5 min).. u will notice, how even on such a bullish day,a trader could have used 50-60 points fall in nifty in last hour or so, Also one can notice ,that biggies like reliance and larsen and icici bank, followed r-caps weakness.

Today, I want to discuss another personnel development regarding a trading system, which can work from 1 min. chart to 15 mn to hourly and on daily/weekly charts with some 85% accuracy.

the amazing and most surprising part of the system comes,when the user learns ( from me offcourse ) how to use nearest stoplosses, and the original buy-sell calls works with 85% accuracy

BUT if one goes double on stoplosses ( which will trigger on approx 15% times ).. I.e if bought one should sell double on stoplosses. The accuracy of the stoploss -go double call will be more than 90% !!!!!!!!!!!

As i have been able to find and implement a few innovative interpretations of some indicators,i could develop such a usefull trading system. It took me almost 3 full years to develop it.

We are conducting traing - classes in various cities, lately, for the clients interested in using this trading system,,whenever we get 3-5 clients at a time in a particular city. The full course takes 5 days... in which we also,teach some basic+ certain innovative trading techniques.
In todays post i am showing lots of charts,,for which my trading system generated buy sell calls on daily charts.
Anybody interested can mail me at bjnaik@hotmail.com or add me on ym as bhoom2tika@yahoo.co.in

short term investment

while the broader market may remain in a broad sideways range of 4100--4350,,,with a positive bias untill nifty breaches 4100 on closing basis,,here are some short term investment ideas.
buy n hold...untill u get reasonable profits.
1 hind.zinc
2 ses goa
3 grasim
4 infra dev finance...........ride the bull......for live calls on yahoo messenger,,please add bhoom2tika@yahoo.co.in.

june quarter to end positive

expectation of a bull move upto somewhere around 4140,was mentioned here ,a few posts earlier, but frankly,this was a little too much !!!!, reason was simple though, too good election results and bears were trapped in far away range of 3530-3720,,so huge short covering was imminent, so bulls never wanted bears to escape easily.i expect a short -med term corrective range bound markets ,before another bull move maybe upto 4600-4800 range, around june.i expect this beacause of few factors,1) good monsoon symptoms again(agricultural boost wil be a big helping hand for the new govt.),2) budget expectations ,3 ) first 100 days, agenda of the new govt. 4) as usually technical reason,that is a SUPER morning star pattern in indices on quarterly charts( q ending june -09)., being developed.

sensex reaching and getting some resistance again at 2.618 levels of the last leg of downfall on WEEKLY CHARTS.

HERE are the charts

a few stocks ,i would love to recommend,as short to med term buy n hold............... skumars...close 32..tgt 41 short to med term....buy atlas copco 580 positional tgt 779buy fedder llyod ... buy n hold ksb pumps tgt 360---420 current 304 ..... buy n hold fsl 21 tgt 30

SALUTE TO THE GREAT SUBJECT !!!

i got atleast 25 messeges yesterday,saying that tomorrow it will go upto 1000 sensex points,i sent only one liner....where were all these guys in oct-08,,,where were they in march,,,?? they all were calling 1800 nifty ,,,and in march all were calling the rise as a simplr bear market rally,all gorgot one very simple commonsense fact that markets ALWAYS discountS future...for major economical turnings market discounts future 6 months to 1 year ahead.and today morning,(its too early though),singapore nifty is being traded at 4053...A HUGE 368+,this will be a massive gap up opening,if it realy happens.and now after a rally from 2535 to 4000,,i DONT think any analyst will be saying that this is a bear market rally.
the fact is that ,,,even this (market discounts future phenomenon) have its limits...u have to learn to apply it ,sometimes not the 100% portion of NEWS or FUTURE EVENT is discounted in prices ,but we have to keep in mind that there may not be a MAJOR FOLLOW UP NEWS to fuel the markets up and up
so all in all ...i have over the yrs came to conclusion that instead of guessing ,,,we must and must learn to let the charts speak,,and we have to listen them.
on 29th march ,when nifty was just around 2900,i wrote, THAT LOOKING AT THE STRENTH OF THIS RALLY JUST BEFORE THE RESULTS, WE CAN PRESUME THAT A STABLE GOVT. WILL COME TO POWER AND THERE WILL BE NO PLACE FOR MAYAVATI AND SO CALLED THIRD FRONT...the reality is ,,there is INFACT no place for mayavati and third front.
how could i was able to write it ?? ,very simple commonsense logic..charts reflects mass psychology, and answers to 2 questions are same, who votes ??and who trades ?..THE ANSWER IS COMMON MAN.
MY SALUTE TO THE GREAT SUBJECT OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND THE INDIAN COMMON MAN !!

bull power

yesterday i suggested that a correction may hav started,but luckily for me,as the markets have tought me tobe very very flexible,especially when analysing and predicting against intermediate trend.so , i gave a clear level (and that too using ,warning RED colour) that a move beyond 3624,instead of 3703 given earlier,to continue the upward journey,,that was pre-market,,and for the downside i had given 3500-3508 for nifty to close below,,which never happened,and since i am using live charts,in 15 minutes chart,,3583 was my level for going long again,,and vow !! what a bull power ,we are witnessing..here i am posting some charts.all are explained in a sentence.

correction started ??

since last 3-4 posts ,i have been givimg a view ,that 3650-3700 zone is a strong resistance area to be watched out,,and further upmove is possible only after nifty closes above 3703,,for 2 days nifty went above 3703 intraday but couldnt gave a close, above it.my support levels were 3595 and 3575..both broken down on a closing basis,yesterday.for me next support is at 3508.and nifty CAN continue its upward journey if closes above 3624,3660,again.since ,we will witness an important political event,this week end,,i would rather love to watch election results before entering the markets again.i may miss a big move on either side,but thats affordable.
IF ,election results create confusion regarding formation of the new government,than the fear of unstable govt. will create panic,extending this corrective started from around 3700.
i am giving a few downside tgts, if nifty retreats heavily.
nifty 3500 strong support. next 3434.....3259 and 3135 possible below 3434.
all stock tgts are possible targets and support levels...if..if..nifty breaches 3500--3434 on closing basis.
rel cap 452
sbi 1188,,,1135
reliance 1770....1680...1609
bhel 1512
larsen strong support at 900..below which...809....754
tata steel below 245.....210 possible
tata motors below 239.....207
hdfc 1558
hdfc bank 1025
i request all readers to read my blog carefully,before taking any position.and remember that if a heavy correction sets in it will be a very good ,buying opportunity only.

election rules the markets

advice for small players to avoid the markets this week.markets have not corrected in a big way since the rally started from 2539 nifty levels,,though in my opinion such strong rallies from the bottom should be mostly part of the new bull wave only,,one must remember forever that never ever any markets have gone either up or down without correcting themselves.very strict stoploss for nifty must be kept,3575 for spot nifty is the level to watch on the closing basis,,a close below 3575 will easily open doors for nifty to reach 3505 first.on the upside a close above 3703 is needed for nifty to touch 3819.but election results being a big event affecting markets,all chances are that these levels can come on a single day only.clearly volatility will be very very high,,so i again advice smaller players to remain out of the markets,and to trade in smaller quantities with clear stoplosses,only if they cant avoid the markets.

use of fibonacci ratio for targets,,,recent examples

Mr rajnish kumar wrote

quote:how to use fibonacci in intraday trading in nifty. if you explain with 7 may 09 chart it will be helpfull to me to understand the concept

unquote:u choose a difficult day for me to explain , my concept,, 7th may was ( almost for the whole day) non trending day.in so many stocks , intraday charts were suggesting a triangular move.use of my concept is when a clear up or down trending market is there. but look at this intraday chart , first:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

See that,the last leg of 6th may fall in this 3 min chart was retraced by 2.618% on 7th may.when nifty moved up in the morning n those levels proved tobe strong resistance area for the whole day.now have a look at this one.

As we all know nifty is in a strong upmove.now on 6th may in the last sessions it tanked down heavily ,touching low at 3609 something.since the strong upmove was disturbed ,here we take last leg of the upmove which was from 3636--3717 as u can see in this 15 min chart,,now chk todays low which was around 3586,, this low was exact 1.618% of the last leg of the upmove.....

Now have a look at this last chart.

although ,this might not be the exact fit to my use of the system i explained earlier,,but my messege is try to learn something different and purpose ,,to show fibonacci ratios presence everywhere....after 6th mays fall,nifty opened higher,and again tanked,,but made a higher bottom at 3633,,so if u consider this as a last downmove--as 1 leg of fall started on 6th...look at todays high..exact 1.618% of that leg from 3680--3633..hope readers understand this new application of fibonacci ratios.and since yesterdays move seemed to be triangular move fibonacci ratios 61.8% were present in almost all legs with its prior leg. jaisainath...

use of fibonacci ratios for target,,,my way.

i am here putting a few charts ,as an evidence of a new technique, to determine targets.i take last leg of a major fall,and put fibonacci ratios in the reverse direction,,as the last major move(down move in our case) ends and if we found the new move strong enough, 1.618% and 2.618% fibonacci ratios of the last leg of the major move can be taken as targets.all charts are representing this technoqe,and i am also using the same thing even on intraday charts.

at last ,nifty targets achieved

i have been advocatng my views of a bottom in our markets...using some logic,and historical truths abt how market behaves (16th oct 08),,using my understanding of strenth of a rally(29th march 09) and than using some innovative use of fibonacci ratio in projecting PROBABLE targets (11th april 09)...and so as on yesterday, nifty reached my target of 3700,and pulled back heavily from those area of strong resistance.a close below 3596 is first need to reverse the current rally,and than a closes below 3493 will make nifty enter a strong downward corrective phase.as i mentioned in my last article that 3650--3700 area is of resistance (which worked yesterday), but i wrote to watch dow(which seems to have broken out of an inverted head & shoulder pattern,,if on friday dow closes here,>8300 around)...our markets may attempt to touch 12600 and 3819 levels.

here i am giving levels for some major stocks to watch,,for trading purpose,if the below mentioned stocks closes below the level given after a particular hour completes(levels as per hourly charts),one can trade short.
rel capital 560
reliance 1839
bhel 1670
hdfc 1715
tata power 890
larsen 955
remember ,that these are market movers,,,i know this levels are a little away at present,,but in a few days whenever these levels are breached,the whole market may well enter a corrective phase
also, remember that we are in a strong up trend,so untill these levels arent breached buy on dips shud be the strategy.usin the same levels as stoplosses.

a real BURST !!!!!

success and failure are truly part and parcel of life,,one must learn to accept both of them,without forgetting that ,it has very little concern with what WE do,but has lot of concern with what THE ALMIGHTY wishes ,us to do....so basically our duty is to do the job,in the best possible way,putting best efforts at all times,,life will reward us on its own terms.
i started writing the blog ..when after a very big bull-wave, sensex was awaiting a deeper correction than ever before..so on 12th jan 2008, i wrote one article suggesting the same,,when almost everybody was extremely bullish..,,back on 16th oct-2008,,when pessimism was at its best,,almost everyone was heavily bearish...talking of 2200 and even 1800 for nifty and around 5000 for sensex..i titled my article...TIME TO INVEST...and india hits botom...who believed me ??..even non technical part of my mind was in doubt..but my subconscious mind was telling me something else..so iwrote that piece,,there were some powerfull basic and logical principles behind that article...and vow !!!!!! six months down the line ,and now everybody s talkin about bull markets back..believe me ITS NOT ME ITS HE prompted me to dare write such articles...anyways..its the great subject thats helping me to time the markets.

now, for the current rally,, on march 29 2009 when nifty was at 2980 levels i wrote clearly that we have hit the bottom..a huge 700 points rally folllowed than on april 12 2009 i did give nifty tgts of 3700 around..and we are here .looking at yesterdays powerful gapped-up open and stronger close..all chances are there that sensex will extend this upmove upto 12392--12620 levels and nifty may touch 3819 around.before either taking a pause or correcting substantially..i will take call of charts ,suggesting weakness as n when it produces one,,..till than ..jai sainath.

will nifty reach the targeted zone ?

i wrote a few days back,that if nifty is unable to close above 3515, it will enter a small range,,the same day nifty made a high around 3500,but soon feeling the pinch of the resistance zone (3512 is 1.618% of the last fall in nifty,before it started this massive rally...see the chart below)

nifty, went down among fears gripping the markets about swine flue,but the very next day ,,opened higher and rallied throughout on the day of settlement.a mini vacation, and we will be seeing the rally to continue, upto atleast 3650-3700 zone as discussed here earlier.

next ??

i have developed a trading system which generates buy-sell calls ,with around 85% of accuracy,a few days back i got a small list of stocks which had given buy calls,but , havent given successfull upmove in the last week,which for me is a warning that the rise in the coming week will not sustain much,,

also,there is one warning signal generated by my favourate indicator setup in hourly charts,,and as i mentioned here a few weeks back,that 3650-3700 zone will not only be the target zone for the current rally but also will be strong resistance area too.

so,in my opinion next weeks rally will be to exit longs...only one event can perhaps take this rally to newer highs above 3700...tht is a inverted h&s breakout in dow.

if that happens dow can be targeted to around 9000 !..so,,be careful around 3700..and better watch dow,in the next week.in that case nifty targets will be revised upto 4140.

double botton in indices in weekly charts.

as i suggested here in my oct-08 16th...article,,rectangle pattern was developed in the daily charts,,and on the weekly charts its actually a big w..a double bottom pattern developed..targetting the same 3700 around levels.and 12300 around in sensex.