THE ECONOMIST WINS OVER THE POLITICIAN

I have lots and lots of respect for the hon. prime minisyer dr. manmohan singh.,,i was keenly recording his budget speeches in 1992-1995 period.

he, with the legend intellectual visionary late shri p.v. narsimharao,,, literally changed indias fortune for the better.

within last 1-2 months,, the economist dr. manmohansingh, has taken two, very smart steps,,which will be very good for the economy for the long run, but will have certain negative impact for the stock markets in particular for banking and auto stocks for short--medium term period.

FIRST, it was a collection of almost 1lac cr from telecom auctions.

SECOND, proposed de control of oil prices,, the oil marketing companies are said to be in loss of huge 72000 cr ,, this step, will allow omcs to increase oil prices and they will recover 72 k cr.

as. most of the omcs have huge govt. stakes,, major chunk of this 72k cr will be in the govt. kitty.
NOW, THIS HUGE FUND OF APPROX 1.6 LAC CR ,, will surely help economist pm to reduce budget deficit,, which will have great boost up for india s image as a frowing economy.

BUT, this will surely create inflationary pressure and the the dirty interest rate rise cycle will speed up.
so, lesser money in the system...higher interest rate and pressure on auto sales.

with the world market charts looking SIGNIFICANTLY WEAK ,, due to these steps , india will join in line with the deep correction , with the world markets.

technically, channel and 5171---4960--4675...are the downside targets, if nifty cant cross 5360--5445--5467.

nifty view

this is what I wrote to you, in my presentation abt the markets around 15 days back.
NOW, we are in the last 5-10 overs of the finale.
NIFTY will reward, 500 + points on EITHER side to whoever wins .
AS on eod charts...SHAPE WISE its a perfect HEAD N SHOULDER PATTERN ON NIFTY/SENSEX CHARTS., DEVELOPING.
First sign of hns working will be sideways move for 1-2 days + a big upmove closing above 5073...
and than THE NECKLINE BREAK ON THE UPSIDE , NEEDED.




Nifty was around 4900, than, the possible HEAD & SHOULDER pattern , which was clearly mentioned in my last view, worked and nifty made a high of 5370.


now what ?
A failure to cross, the highs at 5399 is a factor to worry...on charts, the last four days fall seems tobe corrective only, and we will seean upmove from max around 5215. although, 5278..my yahoo mess. Level is not broken yet, on closing basis. Still, below it there will be supports from 5215.


but, looking at charts of some banking leaders and metal sector, the coming rise too will be weak.
We need a close above 5360 for a strong upmove to around 5425-5435 and 5467.
as charts suggests, after oil price hike, interest rate hike, may be on the cards.and if that happens, we may again see a deeper correction.

For medium term watch 5171, nifty spot level.below which, in the month of july-2010, we will surely have deeper correction.

a flag in nifty fut.

5278 was held,,,brokn n recovered soon  ..if holds on daily charts,,nifty flag will work positively.

EXPANDING IN HOURLY CHART OF SENSEX

ITS A BEARISH STRUCTURE.

IF 5278 BROKEN...SUPP AT 5205

nifty chart and my projection

A VALID HNS BREAK OUT

WE expect something out of markets, and markets tries to show something else.....we get frustrated only if we couldnt understand, what markets tries to suggest.

luckily,,here in my case..i had my channel and 4960 nifty level, to get breached IF a crash was to come. but,
i found a reversal pattern developing,, way before the RIGHT SHOULDER was even visible..(nifty chart 27-05-2010),,and indeed, theres now a valid head n shoulder developed.

i would wait for a correction..(may be small).on the downside, to get an entry point to go long,, for targets of 5425--5435.

future course for sensex/ nifty

HI , all.

Our markets have lately started to devite from the whole world markets, lately. Especially in recent few weeks.

i.e. if dow/ world markets have fallen sharply, our markets too have came down,,,but not as much as others. And just a small bounce in the world markets, and nifty suddenly has jumped more.

That is how, if we look at the major world indices, , its clear that most of them have broken/tasted their may-2010 lows, while our markets, have not.

Now, this will have good impact, if weak looking dow or ftse or dax..starts falling more severly after some corrective up-move, in coming weeks..

for us, our channel is the most important support.

And up-side is capped around 5425-5435...if the hns pattern works.

If 4960 and the channel gets broken, than down side can easily open up to 4586—4210.

remember, any markets CAN NOT remain in such channel,,for much longer.

A BREAK OUT on the either side is bound to come.

For our markets, the downside break can come, may be after nifty touches the upper channel around 5435...this is possible, if after some correction on the upside, the world markets, again starts crashing.

INTRAAY TRIANGLE

IMPORTANCE OF A BIG " IF "

ON , , 7TH JUNE, I WROTE, this,

IF ,5146 IS NOT CROSSED ,ON THE UPSIDE( MAX 5213)..AND IF 4960 AND MY CHANNEL GETS BROKEN..NIFTY IS ON THE VERGE OF A BIG BREAKDOWN.UPTO AROUND 4200.,


NOW, there was a clear level mentioned, which was 4960. and i also mentioned my channel.in the bear onslaught on tuesday / wednesday  NEITHER was not broken, nifty low was 4963 on tuesday,which was tasted again at 4985 on wednesday..


and on next day , smelling bullishness, i mentioned about , inverted hns pattern.


my system never misses, a big move on either side. it started generating buy calls, and it did the same today.
i will update my 4 days calls tonight.


this was written to my brokierage clients, today early morning....





Hi all....as suggested very very clearly, that though there are signs of bear market and a larger correction coming,,my decisive lvl for nifty was
4960 and on tuesday nifty made a low of 4963..even yesterday nifty low was around 4985.
the rising channel that have been being shown to you since last two months, have NOT yet beoken on weekly charts.
Now, as shown on different bse indices charts, there are head n shoulder patterns developing on their daily charts.
This is BULLISH PATTERN. BUT the pattern is considered as COMPLETE only after the NECKLINE gets crossed.

So we will keep our fingers crossed, and watch further development in coming days.

A TRIANGLE ON INTRADAY NIFTY CHART

EXTREMELY VOLATILE

I said yesterday,, its last 5-10 overs of GRAND FINALE....and both sides are trying their best.

todays extreme volatilty, is the PERFECT example of what i , realy meant to suggest.

bulls and bears both, trying  very hard, to drag the markets in their favour,,,,i know markets will decide their course of action , on their own...

MY clients are EXTREMELY SAFE. WITH 4 SUCCESSFUL BUY CALLS....

WATCH 4960 AND CHANNEL

Markets are, as i have been mentioning for quite some time now...at a very very interesting point.

IT looked like tobe the finale of a big tournament,,,when the last sell off was started , in early april-2010,we had seen a LOWER TOP on daily charts....as nifty bounced back from supports around 4833, i wrote here, the rise SHOULD be weak, and MAY be a LOWER TOP on weekly charts.

I have also mentioned , that THIS time it looks tobe DIFFERENT.

A WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW 4960 / 4785 will confirm  LOWER TOP on weekly charts.

NOW, we are in the last 5-10 overs of the finale.

NIFTY will reward, 500 + points on EITHER side to whoever wins .

AS on eod charts...SHAPE WISE its a perfect HEAD N SHOULDER PATTERN ON NIFTY/SENSEX CHARTS., DEVELOPING.

First sign of hns working will be sideways move for 1-2 days + a big upmove closing above 5073...
and than THE NECKLINE BREAK ON THE UPSIDE , NEEDED.

BUT, IF the channel gets broken and if 4960---4785 broken,,,than there will be some SERIOUS PANIC, IN THE MARKETS.

calls

31-05-2010

sell jsw fut 1069 sl 1076 - Exit 2-3 loss
buy n hold axis 1224 sl 1209 - Exit 5 rs loss
buy nifty 5064 sl 5049 tgt 5089 - sl triggerd
BTST buy axis , sesa goa , tata steel
BTST sesa goa  from 373 to 384 gv intra day.axis from 1208--1219 intraday
buy mytas infra 195 tgt 204 hits 203


1-06-2010

Advice to book al longs.
sell nifty below 5014 sl 5030 tgt 4988-4961 both targets reached
short icici fut below 838 sl 841  - 821 booked
short hdfc fut and larsen if nifty trades below 5014 - gv 30 rs booked
sell sterlite fut 654 sl 660  - hits 631
positional short jsw  -1056 reaches 1037  gv 19 rs booked ,
sell lic h fin 927    touches 918 booked
2-06-2010

sell lic h f. at 823  covered at 825
sell jsw steel 1026  - book at 10/-
sell icici positional if nifty below 5041  not triggered
BTST larsen 1623, lic h.f.933 , tata motors 845
BTST polaris 180 tgt 184-18   polaris 185 book


3-06-2010
buy axis at 1021   touches 1037 booked
btst larsen touches 1667 book  44 rs profit
btst lic h   967 book          34 rs profit
btst tata motors     966       21 rs profit
buy acc 832 sl 829  - 844 book
Buy  jindal steel 636  booked at 642

04-06-10
buy nifty 5064  -  5084 can book at 5091.. touches 5093.
buy axis 1238 as btst touches 1248 same day
buy n hold banco at 98,
banco gives 4/- intraday book
BTST axis and lc h. f. at 961 ---gives 12 rs booked at 973 axis at 1054 booked.

A BIG QUESTION ,,, WHAT IS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ???

THERE was one simple answer...........an art to identify turning points ,is technical analysis.
My answer is a little modification.



""Technical analysis is an art to identify , HIGHER PROBABILITY turning points, with FLEXIBILITY in VIEWS and use of MULTI TIME FRAME charts to IMMEDIATELY turn around and  CATCH the opposite direction move, faster and better than all. ""


there, are one or two readers, out of thousands, who tries to post ugly comments on my blog. regarding my views,, and one reader says, why am i using words like if ..too frequently,,
my answer is simple...i am not god to be able to know, each moves precisely...am just trying to identify HIGHER PROBABILTY turning points,,,and with a system, which immediately signals me, if THAT SUPPOSED higher probability zone is getting negated.


For example...as on yesterday....looking at weekly charts, i feel that, MARKETS ARE GOING TO CRASH....but, the setup will fail, if on daily charts...within 2-3 days, nifty starts moving up from supports like 4960 around,,and by friday, say if it crosses levels like 5039--5079................................
than , using my intraday trading system, i will have a sure hint that..it can cross 5146--5213...so even before crossing 5146--5213, i would have started giving buy calls to my clients.


NOW, IN the other case, even if nifty breaches 4960..on a given day,,,i will never jump and start giving sell calls...i will wait for my system to generate sell calls on 5 minute charts, BELOW 4960.


this is how, i can ride moves on both ways.

NIFTY ON THE VERGE OF A LARGER CRASH

IF ,5146 IS NOT CROSSED ,ON THE UPSIDE( MAX 5213)..AND IF 4960 AND MY CHANNEL GETS BROKEN..NIFTY IS ON THE VERGE OF A BIG BREAKDOWN.

failure of head and shoulder pattern and its impact

Just , wanted to share, one important OBSERVATION.....that even on intraday charts,, whenever i have ,seen failure in head n shoulder patterns,, i have observed DEVASTATING impact on the other side...A  pattern which doesnt works in its target direction,,can have major impact on the other direction.

besides, a variable hns in nifty,,this pattern is visible in a few other stocks, like sesa goa too...but if the lows of seeming  right shoulder  gets broken,,there can be severe price damage.

so, watch 4960 on nifty, carefully.

INDIA MARKETS , DEVIATED FROM THE WORLD ,,, FOR HOW LONG ??

As a professional technical analyst,,,especially as i give intraday trading calls, my FIRST and FOREMOST, duty is the protection of MY clients trading position.

After 2-3 great trading days,, thursday evening, i had given two btst buy calls...(my last NIFTY buy call was at 5066 and was closed around 5095, intraday)..they were 1) lic h fin at 967  2) axis bank at 1236.

axis, gave 10 rs intraday itself...so i passed on tht message too.
But, yesterday, before open , i CLEARLY suggested that, close all open position, at around opening.,, n to wait for clear clues.
for the whole day, there was not a single call given , after closing all open buy position.

FOR, me , it was significantly important to stay cool n calm n wait for any clues on daily charts.
overnight, dow plunged heavily.,, though india seems to have deviated from the panicked world,
especially in the last upmove,,4960 is the crucial level for nifty.
and do not forget, the upward channel.

I had clearly mentioned..these levels on 26th may 2010....

::"""""E very one knows ,lower levels ..market immediately tries to prove them wrong.

up move is gathering momentum. as i said in morning...watch 5023/5091 and 5146/5180.

also , this rally should go up in 3 legs. two up and one down. so tomorrow and for monday 5091 looks tobe a critical resistance to watch.""""""

as  , it is clear , that  after 5023 was taken out, 5091 was to come, and than 5146, now ,had anyone noticed yeaterdays nifty high ?? it was 5147.91...

also, i said that on any upside 5213 is the most important hurdle. and dont forget, that the upside was clearly projected to come by in three waves, 2 up and one down.which came true.

ADVANTAGE ::::: MULTI TIME FRAME CHARTS

I am a learner of the greatest subject on earth, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS.
I am neither , arrogant, (would never ever be), nor am critics of anyone.,, why am i clarifying ???

Because i just came across an e-mail from  mr. deepak singh, who himself is a technical analyst and frequently gets invited on NDTV PROFIT....................................................................................................................

A PORTION IS BEING COPY-PASTED.

State of the Market June 03 2010

Dear bhoom2tika, Subject: Noise without Trend

Apka sur lag raha hai....market ka sur naheen lag raha hai....That's why one day it falls as if everything is going to end...and the very next day...it does a turnaround. Stocks are moving all over the place. Analysts are making noise...with all sorts of absurd theories at work. The result is Cacophony....too much noise but no clear trend. Probably this song best reflects mindset of short term traders AS its clear that , as per him,  1)there is no CLEAR TREND 2)ANALYSTS are making noice.,,with all sorts of absurd theories at work respected deepak singh, used the word anlysts, and so , i have used a portion of his e-mail. JUST, to confirm that , while most of the analyst, a clear trend must be visible on DAILY charts, tobe able to PREDICT market and more importantly TO TRADE markets. but ,for me, and my readers / clients this is not true. for readers because, i predicted such 3 wave upmove on 27th may, here itself. and for my clients, because, they got PLENTY of intraday  successful SELL CALLS on 1st june AND PLENTY OF SUCCESSFUL BUY CALLS FROM 2ND JUNE--AFTERNOON  AND ON 3RD JUNE FROM MORNING. SIMPLY, because, for me there were clear UP AND DOWN trends were visible on intraday charts, they were predicted and traded succesfully. tonight, i will be posting..all 3 days calls to my clients, with some charts. THIS CAME TRUE, I HAVE LEARNED, TO USE MULTI TIME FRAME CHARTS, with my innovative trading techniques. here is, 27th may NIFTY CHART...AND THE UPDATED CHART.

2009--2010 NIFTY AND ME

IS IT A HIGHER BOTTOM ??

Marekets  were very turbulant today...it looked like a DISTRIBUTION phase from intraday charts,,,almost till nifty breached one intraday low of 4953. but, another dicisive level for today was 4941. which wasnt broken.,
my new indicator, which works a  VERY GOOD PIVOT , WAS 4989...NIFTY touched around this lvl for 4 times and retraced back. but once another lvl 4963 was  broken upside, there was no looking back for nifty.

LOOKING, AT THE STRENGTH OF larsen , sbi , lic h fin , as on eod charts...this may be a higher bottom.

NIFTY

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS AND MONEY MANAGEMENT

The general mentality of traders is biased on the upside of markets ,,and thats why, my job as a technical analyst, becomes extremely difficult.
a few days back, i did post one nifty chart, in which i clearly put arrows , first mentioning A DOWN MOVE and than an upmove....this charts was posted after 3rd day of rise from my support lvls around 4833.

Yesterday, i said here a CORRECTION IS DUE ANY DAY.....and i also said..that, WE WILL HAVE A CLOSE LOOK FOR 1-2 DAYS....now,, what i wanted to convey, was that,, if the CORRECTION COMES, SLOWLY (WEAKER ONE) THAN , THE CORRECTION CAN BE A FRESH BUYING OPPORTUNITY....but if its strong, and if it breaks certain important lvls, than...IT CAN BE FRESH DOWN MOVE...

Somehow , from today morning itself...i WAS CONVINCED, THAT , MARKETS ARE GOING TO TANK...SO , I FELT IT EASY, WHEN I started to pass on selling messages.

WHY AM I TALKING ABOUT MONEY MANAGEMENT ??
i gave a buy call on sesa goa, yesterday, at around 374 (cash rate)..it went up and   looks to give a strong close..so i said it can be a good btst.
now, today morning, pre-open , i said to  EXIT ALL LONGS....NOW, one of my friend mentioned, that he has to incur losses + heavy delievery brokerage...he s right.
BUT,, (SMALL LOSS WAS COVERED IN ONLY ONE SELL CALL...AND I GAVE 7-8 SELL CALLS , ALL 100% SUCCESSFULL....),, HOW a trader could have used his money managed skills , yesterday itself ???

as per discussion,, he traded a good quantity in cash yesterday..SO , he could have booke 10-12 rs intraday as profit...and could have bought a future of almost equal quantity...so, he could have not only SAVED delievery brokerage, but COULD HAVE ALSO booked in profits...by not booking profits yesterday, he lost that profit and some additional LOSS today +  heavy brokerage.

so, the whole trade could have resulted in a net no profit/ no loss trade.
and todays ,huge profit making calls , would have benefited a lot.
and I AM SURE , that because of some initial loss in the early morning...he MUST have missed, atleast one/ two of my early sell  calls today.

THE BEST WAY TO EARN MONEY IN TRADING MARKETS....IS TO   1) KEEP A BLIND MIND, ,     2 )BE A ROBOT, AND FOLLOW ALL INSTRUCTIONS,,,3) GIVE EACH CALL AN EQUAL WEIGHTAGE, OFF THE RISK CAPITAL.

Because, afterall , as a ta , my job is to identify, high probabilty setups,, WHICH have relatively high success ratio.so unless a  trader learns some money management skills,,my calls wont be used upto their full potential
..SMS VERSION OF ALL OF MY CALLS TODAY., will be posted in next post, tonight.

A BIG CRACK AGAIN !!!!!!!

Yesterday evening, looking at EOD charts, i said a correction is due, ANYTIME NOW.
and here it is...from the early morning , itself, i had given a clear call , that EXIT LONGS .another important message that, i was highlighting since 2 days ,was that 5016 is a major trend decider level. and today, when nifty was trading around 5040 ,i gave a sell call below 5014... with tgt of 4989---4960.

and BANG ,,all targets were  done , so quickly.

so many , sell calls, in cash / fno ,all gave more than 15-20-30 rs intraday.

4904/ 4875 seems due.