WHAT A DRAMATIC WEAK !!!!!!!!!
Every major PRICE SWING is nothing but reflection of CHANGE OF MOOD of mass which keeps changing and our subject is a study of MASS PSYCHOLOGY and thus a study of such dramatic MOOD SWINGS .
The 89 week EMA and the year long CHANNEL has been captured again on weekly closing basis.
After our first downside target of 5177 and 17300 for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively we said in our daily technical views that even though chances of more down side are more BUT such panic lows if held can become good support for SOME TIME atleast.
And we suggested BEARISHNESS only below 5254 and NIFTY GOT SUPPORT AROUND 5260 ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS so we said in our Friday morning technical view that,
“How long bulls can fight up ?
As long as 17504 is held and as long as SENSEX remains above 17296 on closing basis we may witness such bounces from lows happen
On intraday basis as long as 5254 is held and on closing basis as long as 5177 is held EXPECT some relief rally .
Today if NIFTY sustains above 5331 for 5-10 minutes one can go long for a rally of around 50 points from there.
NIFTY can reach 5380 and 5409 if it sustains above 5331.
It is MARKETS PERCEPTION that when a level becomes KNOWN TO EVERYONE it defies to reach there easily in our case it seems NOW that every street trader KNOWS that 4800 is due for NIFTY so MARKET will not let it happen TOO EASILY.
Fridays big single day rally can become the first leg of rally which may form a “DOUBLE BOTTOM” pattern on daily charts around 5200 for NIFTY and 17300 for SENSEX.
It is difficult to say exactly what will happen in the future but we will ensure that our readers do not miss a LARGER MOVE on either side.
As of now as shown on SENSEX and NIFTY chart we have defined two important TREND DECIDER LINES one is the falling trendline as a resistance and the other is horizontal support line the trend for next FEW MONTHS will be decided by breach of these two lines.
Bullish above the TRENDLINE and bearish below the HORIZONTAL line and as on Friday there is 50% probability towards both possibilities.
We have to be bold and swift enough to be with the trend:
readers may think that we are changing our BEARSISH VIEW overnight but its not true.
The fast is that with the spread of TECHNICAL ANALYSIS as a subject nowadays a lot more participants know LEVELS well in advance AND as we see market itself as a LIVING THING it does not want to behave as per EVERYONES UNDERSTANDING market behaves on its own and it proves its supremacy time and again.
So to remain with it always, we have to be COMPLETELY UNBIASED in presenting a view and we have to be SWIFT AND BOLD and have to keep all possibilities open.
At times we get a clear view which is UNKNOWN to most others there we can become aggressive to publish our view like in October-november 2010 RIGHT AT THE TOP, we said a TOP is here because MOST of others were EXTREMELY BULLISH even in APRIL 2011 when the HOPE factor revived WE TURNED BEARISH at around 5850 on both these occasions we were perfectly WITH THE TREND.
Do remember that our views have pure TECHNICAL REASONINGS.
But now as 5177 was held and as it was a PANIC BOTTOM and more so at that point of time MOST TRADERS were CONVINCED that 4800 is due,we became CAUTIOUS.
We have a crude target at around 72 usd in medium term and as we can see that DOW AND S&P may have made a SIGNIFICANT TOP the foreign money may again turn towards STABLE ECONOMIES like us.
In a single line NO BEARISH NESS UNTILL 5177 IS HELD and we will generate short calls if we find BEARISHNESS again even before 5177 gets broken.
For the next week NIFTY WILL FIND SUPPORTS AT 5373 AND 5339 levels and once NIFTY crosses 5483 it will have targets of 5521 and 5605.
For SENSEX support levels are 17895 and 17782 and now once above 18262 SENSEX can touch 18539 and 18725 or even 18877.
NIFTY AND SENSEX must not give a weekly close below 5303 and 17669 to maintain the strength both have shown on Friday.
NEXT WEEK will end month of june and also will be the end of last QUARTE and HALF YEAR so it will be interesting to watch the close of this month.
As mentioned earlier there are very strong bearish candle patterns on QUARTERLY AND HALF YEARLY charts on many indices and stocks so if the Friday rally continues till 30th june we will review HIGHER TIME FRAME charts accordingly.
SENSEX : we suggested a few days back that PANIC BOTTOM generally does not break for some times.
There are BEARISH signals on higher time frame charts and we have to wait for the current quarter and half year to end to study these higher time frame charts.
But the power and speed with which bounce back came was a little surpricing.
Remember bounce back was not surprising its speed was.
Anyway we have to deal with what market says in its own way and we suggested a bounce back above 17786 and once that level was crossed there was no look back.
Looking at the strength of up move any fall up to atleast 17902 will be a buying opportunity.our important level 17786 was GAPPED UP on Friday so the GAP between 17754 and 17804 is CRUCIAL SUPPORT also note that 17789 is 50% retracement of the rally till Friday.
NIFTY :
We passed on a message here on Friday to buy NIFTY above 5328 we could give target of 5409 but MARKET was in different mood to surprise most of us.
we suggested a few days back that PANIC BOTTOM generally does not break for some times.
There are BEARISH signals on higher time frame charts and we have to wait for the current quarter and half year to end to study these higher time frame charts.
But the power and speed with which bounce back came was a little surprising.
In NIFTY TOO 5328 was GAPPED UP OPEN so the gap at 5320 and 5343 is the most CRUCIAL support for some time now.
Any dip upto 5379 should be used to go long on selective stocks .
A strong move above 5480 can take NIFTY to 5521 and 5605 in coming days.
