NIFTY @ STRONG RESISTANCE

In My Last Update I Wrote This

" A Few Points Which Are Clear In Mind About Different Time Frames Trends

LONG TERM :  Extremely Bullish And Expecting 50000+ Sensex In A Few Years

MEDIUM TERM : Nifty Will Retrace Back Towards Its 200 DEMA In Next 1-2 Months

SHORT TERM:  We Have A Two Different Levels To Clearly Decide Short Term Trends
If NIFTY Manages To Consume The Big Bear Candle Of 6th Jan And Closes Above 8433 (NF Fut) We Will Have One More Powerful Upside "

On 15Th Jan Nifty Moved Above My Level With A Gap & We Have Witnessed A POWERFUL UPSIDE As Expected

After This Move Everyone is Bullish Only ,An Euphoric Environment Prevails Exactly At The Time When Nifty Has Reached At The Upper End Of The BROADENING Structure

                                                                                                                                                            

Time To Have Caution In Longs As A SHARP REVERSAL Is Due Again

Dont Forget My Observation About NIFTY & 200 DAY EMA

The TREND DECIDER "GAP"

Nifty Has Moved Very Sharply In Both Directions In Last Few Days

Such Move Can Make it Very Difficult To Decide Where The Markets Finally Wants To GO
But There Are Some Clues Always

It Was And It is Still Not Clear If Nifty Has A Confirmed LOWER TOP Or Is It A HIGHER BOTTOM At Tuesdays Low

A Few Points Which Are Clear In Mind About Different Time Frames Trends

LONG TERM :  Extremely Bullish And Expecting 50000+ Sensex In A Few Years

MEDIUM TERM : Nifty Will Retrace Back Towards Its 200 DEMA In Next 1-2 Months

SHORT TERM:  We Have A Two Different Levels To Clearly Decide Short Term Trends

If NIFTY Manages To Consume The Big Bear Candle Of 6th Jan And Closes Above 8433 (NF Fut) We Will Have One More Powerful Upside

If Nifty Closes The 8th Jan Opening GAP At 8193-8157 And CLOSES A Day Below It We Will Have A Big Down Move Soon


" Follow The Markets As Markets Will Never Ever Follow You "

A NEARLY CONFIRMED "LOWER TOP" FOR MEDIUM TERM

Yesterday I Mentioned an Observation Regarding NIFTY & 200 DEMA Over The Last Few Years and Suggested That Its Due Time When NIFTY Comes Down To Meet its 200 DEMA

As on Today The Value Of 200 DEMA Is 7670

When We Look At The Biggest Bull Rally Till date Which was From 2003-2008 We Can Clearly See That in Those 5 years Of Bull Phase NIFTY Came Back Towards its 200 DEMA Nearly 6 And Each Time It Took Support (Breaching it a few times for a While) And Posted Another Big Rally

Observed That 3 out of 6 Times NIFTY Remained ABOVE Its 200 DEMA For Around 11-13 Months
Even In The 2008-2009 Crash NIFTY Remained BELOW Its 200 DEMA For 11 Months Before Crossing it Over

There After NIFTY Remained 9 months Above Its 200 Dema in 2009-10

As On Today Its Been 11 Months That NIFTY Is Above its 200 DEMA

Nearly 5 Times In Last 11 Years NIFTY Has Remained Above Or Below Its 200 DEMA For A Maximum Period of 11-13 Months This History Suggests That Although We Are In A Huge Bull Market Nifty Will Come Towards 7670 (value will change as days passes) Very Soon

Two Weakening Sectors And Nifty

I Have A Very Interesting Observation Regarding 200 Day Average & Nifty Over The Years Which Suggests That Its Due Time Where NIFTY Retraces Back Towards Its 200 Day Average

More On This In A Day Or Two !

A Few Days Back I had Suggested That Two Leading Sectors Of Current Mega Bull Run IT & Pharma Have Started To Weaken
And After A Corrective Up Move As NIFTY Bounced Back From 8000+ Levels I Feel That Many Stocks Of These Two Sectors Are Preparing Themselves For A sharper Down Move

Dr Reddy ,Sun Pharma From Pharma And Tech Mahindra, Hcl Tech From IT Seems To Lead This Coming Down Move

A STRONG " HIGHER BOTTOM" IN PLACE

A Few Notes From My Dec 14 Articles

4th Dec : " We Are In A Big Bull Market For Long Term So A Dip Around 8000-8200 Should Be Considered As Buying Opportunity to Breach The BROADENING PATTERN On The Upside May be Later in 2015 "

18th Dec : " Nifty Spot Will Face Resistance at 8212 First and a Higher Bottom On Intraday Charts Will Confirm a Bottom In Place Early Next Week

A Close Above 8369 Will Most Probably Take Us Back Above New Highs But Watch This Space For Further Updation "

24th Dec : "For The A NIFTY Future Trade Below 8247-8228 Will Take NIFTY Towards 8190 Levels Easily and If NIFTY Fails To Have A Strong Bounce From There We May have Seen a LOWER TOP At 8370 Level

An Hourly Close Above 8300 Today Or By Friday Will Surely Revive Hopes For The Bulls "

Since My 1st Dec Post Suggesting a Crash Followed By My Expectation of A Strong Bounce Back Worked Nicely Through The Month Of Dec

And In Jan I Wrote This On Friday 

"NF Took Support At 8282 Suggested In My Last Post A Couple Of Days Back

Since Then We Are Neither Seeing A Break Down Nor Any Significant Up Move So I Expect Some Move Soon
A Move Beyond 8356 Can Easily Take NF To 8391 & 8414 Provided It Does Not Move Below 8316-8295 Zone"

Nifty Did Touch My Targets In The First Hour Itself And Posted A Strong Close Above The 61.8% Retracement For The January Nifty Future Chart

All in All It is A Strong Bounce Back For The Week Starting 2015

I Will Update Further Early Next Week

NIFTY FUTURE VIEW FOR NEXT TWO DAYS

For Last Three Trading Days There Has Been A Lack Of Volumes In Our Markets

NF Took Support At 8282 Suggested In My Last Post A Couple Of Days Back

Since Then We Are Neither Seeing A Break Down Nor Any Significant Up Move So I Expect Some Move Soon

A Move Beyond 8356 Can Easily Take NF To 8391 & 8414 Provided It Does Not Move Below 8316-8295 Zone