TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 21012016:

NIFTY:

Another Big Gap Down And A Big Fall Followed By A SMART Intraday Recovery But Still NOTHING Positive On EOD Charts

What Happens Normally Is That After 300-400 NIFTY POINTS Fall There Used To Be Some Smart Recovery But This Time Around Even After Some 700+ Points Crash We Are Witnessing Only INTRADAY Rallies

Some Where It Will Stop And We Will Have A Relief Rally But As I Said Earlier It Is Dangerous To Swim Against The High Tide

A STOP & REVERSE Would Be A CLOSE Above 7447 For Positional NF traders

7336-7364 IS THE FIRST HURDLE TO CROSS FOR NIFTY ABOVE WHICH IT CAN ATTEMPT  FOR 7462 AND AFTER CLOSING THE GAP IT CAN REACH 7498-7551

A CLOSE Below 7280 Would Negate The Up Side Possibility

Since DOW & DAX Has Reached Their AUGUST-15 LOWs Which Are Minor Supports I Am Expecting Some Up Side But Again ONLY Above Suggested Levels With A CLEAR STOP

EOD NIFTY :

BANK NIFTY:

I Had Given A DOWN Side Target Of 14665 For BANK NIFTY And Yesterday It Made A LOW Of 14754

My Target Was Given When BNF Was Around 16000

A Relief Rally Possible On A BANK NIFTY CLOSE Above 15270-15338

The TARGET Zone Would Be 15453-15790 Which Will Again Be A Tough Resistance Zone

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 18012016:

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 18012016:

NIFTY:

First Let Us Have A Look At The Week Gone By:

On Friday My View Was Positive & Hoping For A Relief Rally BUT Only Above Certain Levels And Neither NIFTY Nor BANK NIFTY Was Able To CROSS My Levels And The TREND Continued

TWO Long Shadows At 7430-7452 For NF Prompted Me To Have A View Of A SHORT TERM BOTTOM Formation But As I Have Been Consistent That There Must Be A FOLLOW UP Bullish Candle To Confirm Bottom Which Did Not Happen

What Now ?

NF Yet To Close Below 7430 But The STRUCTURE Seems Negative Again As NIFTY/NF Just Managed To Close At Previous TOW DAYs LOWs

Unless NIFTY Again Manages A CLOSE Above 7551 / NF Above 7561 There Will Be Selling Pressure At Every Rise

An EOD Close Above 7617 For NF Can Bring In Some HOPE Based Rally During The Coming Week

Down Side Targets Of 7330-7280-7141-7108 Are Open

The 7330-7280 Price Zone Is A CRUCIAL SUPPORT Zone So Before A Final Plunge NF Should See Some Support At 7330-7280

BANK NIFTY:

I Had A View That Above 15689 There Was A Possible Relief Rally But BNF Could Not Reach There And Again Once Below 15450 My Target Of 15200 Was Met Very Quickly

A CLOSE (Hourly Close For Today) On EOD Basis During The Week Above 15689 Can Bring In Some Relief Rally Else Fresh Selling Will Resume Taking BNF Below 15000 Very Soon

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 20012016:

NIFTY:

NF Did Manage To Cross 7422 And Went Up To 7474 In An Intraday Rally But Could Not CLOSE Above 7460

It Seems To Be JUST A PAUSE After Very Heavy Selling Pressure And If NF Manages To Sustain Above 7407 Especially For The 1st Hour Of Trades It Can Again TRY To CROSS 7460

On A CLOSE Above 7460 We May See 7498 And 7551 In Coming Days

A CLOSE Below 7407-7377 Down Trend Will Resume Again

EOD NIFTY:

BANK NIFTY:

BNF Has To CLOSE Above 15430 For Some Sort Of Relief Rally Else All The Intra Day Rallies Will Be Sold Out

A CLOSE Below 15170 Will Most Probably Resume The Down Trend

Even A Few Days Range Bound Move Is Also Possible

MARKET VIEW 15012016

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 15012016:

NIFTY:

NIFTY Has Been Extremely Volatile In Last Two Trading Days

7422 / 7430 For NF Seems A BOTTOM For Now

Because Such Volatility Can Happen Before A TOP Or BOTTOM Formation Since We Have Seen Relentless Selling From Around 8000 We May Now See A Rally

STOP: CLOSE BELOW 7471 Today

NIFTY EOD:

BANK NIFTY:

A Very Nice Fibonacci Setup Suggests That At 15450 BANK NIFTY May Have Hit A BOTTOM For The Short Term

And A Relief Rally Will Be On The Cards

STOP: A CLOSE BELOW 15450

Once BANK NIFTY CLOSEs Above 15800 It Can Reach 16200-16434

For BNF An Hourly Close Above 15689 Will Confirm My View

BANK NIFTY EOD:

Please Remember That The Suggested Up Move Will Mostly Be A RELIEF RALLY Which Will Reach 38.2% Retracement Levels Of The Recent Fall And Medium Term Bearish Trend Remains Intact

After Watching  The STRENGTH I will Suggest What Kind Of Move Will Follow And If We Just Have A SIDE WAYS Move The DOWN MOVE Will Continue Below STOPs Given Today

WORLD MARKET PLUNGES HARD

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 14012016:

NIFTY:

I Was Expecting Some Up Side Move Above 7570 Around NIFTY Went Up To 7600 But My STOP Was 7540 And Once Below 7540 NIFTY Touched 7425 As Our One Weekly Target Was 7422

'' After May Be A Minor Support Around 7550-7500 We Will See New Lows And First Probable Support/Target Zone Is 7422 Then 7330-7280 And Finally 7141-7118''

From The SUPPORT/TARGET Of 7422 NIFTY Bounced Back Sharply CLOSING Even Above 7551

On EOD Chart It Is A LONG LEGGED DOJI ,Which Suggests A SHORT TERM Bottom At 7425 But Needs A FOLLOW UP BULLISH CANDLE

A CLOSE Above 7620-7640 Can Be Such A FOLLOW UP

World Markets Are A BIG BIG Concern For Us Which I Have Been Suggesting Since last Month In All my Reports

A CLOSE Below 7516 For NF And More Damage On NF CLOSE Below 7429

BANK NIFTY:

15600-15540 Was A SUPPORT Zone From Where We Had Seen Strong INTRA DAY Bounce But BNF Need A CLOSE Above 16185 First For A Relief Rally

Below 15600-15540 BNF Can Reach 15200 Very Quickly

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 13TH JAN

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 13012016:

NIFTY:

My View For The Intraday Rally On 11th Was Very Clear ,It Was Just The GAP FILLING

And NIFTY Finally Closed Was Below 7551

NF Met My Target Of 7508 Once Below 7540

Intraday Structure Suggests Some Bounce Back Possible

A CLOSE Above 7617-7640 For NF Can Bring In Some Relief Rally

Such A Relief Rally May Happen If NF Can Close An Hour Above 7571 STOP:7540

BANK NIFTY:

There Was More Panic Here

BANK NIFTY Closed Way Below Its August Low

More Down Side To Come But We Can See Relief Rally Up To 16185 Around

A CLOSE Above 16185-16400 Is An Absolute Must For Any TREND REVERSAL Till Then It Can Be Relief Rally Only

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 11012016:

The LOWEST Weekly Close After 30Th MAY 2014 That Is After 84 Weeks NIFTY Has CLOSED A Week At 7601

I Had My Views About DOW JONES Making A LOWER TOP And Last Week DOW Too Lost 1150 Points Which Is The Single Largest WEEKLY Loss After 2012

When DOW Was Around 17500 I Said It Is Forming A LOWER TOP On Weekly Chart And DOW Has Crashed 1000+ Points Since Then

Here It Is

See How DJIA Plunged 1000+ Points In Last Few Days After A LOWER TOP

Worst Technical Aspect Of The NEGATIVE CLOSE Is The Failure Of INVERTED H&S Pattern To Complete The PATTERN

I Have Been Writing Clearly That Medium Term Trend Will Turn BULLISH Only On A WEEKLY CLOSE Above 8034 And NIFTY Failed Twice

After May Be A Minor Support Around 7550-7500 We Will See New Lows And First Probable Support/Target Zone Is 7422 Then 7330-7280 And Finally 7141-7118

But Once FLOOD Gates Open Up PANIC SELLING May Happen And Further New Lows Can Be Possible But Not Without Rallies In Between

WEEKLY NIFTY WITH FIBONACCI LEVELS:

Note That Around 7100 The LOWER END Of The BROADENING STRUCTURE Too Will Give Support

We Are In 45TH Week Since NIFTY Made Its TOP In MARCH 2015 While In 50th WEEK Since BANK NIFTY Made Its TOP In 2015

55 Is A FIBONACCI Number So  We Will Have A Significant Bottom Around 12th Feb Or Around 19th March 2016

For DAY Traders:

First Hourly Close Above 7622 And We May See 7640-7664 For NF & Also If NF Closes Above 7664 It May Try To Fill The GAP Up To 7447

Once Below 7570 It Will Quickly Reach 7551 Will Break It And May Find Some Support At 7503-7491

BANK NIFTY:

We Have A BROADENING STRUCTURE For NIFTY While There Is A CHANNELED MOVE For BANK NIFTY Covering Entire 2015

BANK NIFTY Has Some How Managed To Trade Above 15800 Which Is The Low When NIFTY Made A LOW Of 7551 In August But This Time BANK NIFTY Will Reach 15800 Again & More Below It

WWEKLY CHART OF BANK NIFTY:

14665 Is A FIBONACCI Retracement And The LOWER END Of The Channel Meets Around There Only So Once Below 15800 We Should One More Panic Selling To Meet This Targets In Near Future

Time Wise MID February Seems Logical Time Target

An EOD CLOSSE Above 16400 And Above 16670 Should Be Considered First Signs Of Reversal And A WEEKLY CLOSE Above 17143 Will Negate This Possibility But The PRICE STRUCTURE Seems Far Too Negative

A FAILED H&S

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 08012016:

NIFTY:

Opened Below 7700 As Markets Has Answered A BULLISH Gap With Much Sharper BEARISH GAP And So Abolished Any Positive Probability Seen With The INVERTED H&S Structure

As I Had Clearly Wrote

''A CLOSE Below The BULLISH GAP @7712-7700 Will END The Up Move And We May Again See 7551''

And  ''A DEEP Move Below 7700 Will Play Havoc One May Expect Some Recovery From 7734-7700 Zone But The WORLD MARKETs Are Entering Strong Down Move Is Concern''

NIFTY Plunged Like Any Thing Closing @7571

I Believe 7551 Would Not Be Able Support Now And NIFTY Has Possible Target Zone Of 7430-7330-7280 Very Soon

On INTRADAY Basis NF Can Bounce If Trades Above 7620-7626 Zone Or In A Strong Down Trend It Can Bounce From 7502 Around Too

NF 5 MINUTE CHART:

7747 Becomes New STOP & REVERSE

NIFTY EOD:

A Failed H&S STRUCTURE

BANK NIFTY:

A BIG Bearish Gap Here Too Which Is NEW STRONG Hurdle

15800 Is Surely Possible Now

A CLOSE Above 16430 Is STOP & REVERSE

BANK NIFTY EOD:

TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 06012016:

NIFTY:

After A GAP UP Open NIFTY Could Not Push Up And Although There Was Buying Seen In Selective Stocks NIFTY Could Not Close Above 7835-7853 Zone

NF Opened Above 7853 Took Support Near 7787 But In The Bounce Back Could Only Touch 7834

We Have POSSIBLE Bullish Set Up On NIFTY Chart Which Is INVERTED HEAD & SHOULDER Pattern But First We Need A CLOSE Above 7853 And Then We Need A BIG Bullish Day To Consume The Bearish Candle

More Positive Above 7920 But The Pattern Completes Only Above NECKLINE

BNF Does Not Have Any Supportive Pattern And FAILURE Of Such Structure Will Have A Strong Negative Impact

NIFTY Must Not CLOSE Below 7700 For Us To Have Some Hope

LARSEN Chart Shows What Happens In Case Of HNS Failures

NIFTY EOD:

LARSEN : A FAILED HNS

BANK NIFTY:

BNF Needs A CLOSE Above 16700 On Hourly Basis And An EOD Close Above 17750 For Some Bullish Ness To Return

HNS Failure On NIFTY Chart Will Have Strong Negative Impact On BNF Too

WEEKLY CLOSE Is Very CRITICAL

Technical View

TECHNICAL VIEW 05012016:

NIFTY:

NF Nearly Touched 8000 As It Made A HIGH Of 7994 While BNF Reached Precise High Of 17143 Which Was One Target & Resistance

7920 Was First Level Which Gave Support Even Yesterday In The First 15 Minutes Another Important Level Below Which I Expected A CORRECTION Was 7890

First Hour Closed Below 7890 And There Was No Look Back

7851-7835 Could Not Support NF So This Is NOT The Correction Which Could Have Been A Buying Opportunity

7786 And 7734 Are Two Supports Now

A CLOSE Below The BULLISH GAP @7712-7700 Will END The Up Move And We May Again See 7551

The Probable First Wave Of A New Bull Move Was Completely Dependent Upon The DUE CORRECTION Which Seems To Be Too Harsh

A VERY STRONG Bounce From Around 7700 Can Still Create Some Hope

For Next Few Days 7835-7853 Will Be A Tough Resistance Zone

NIFTY EOD:

BANK NIFTY:

17143 Was Target & Resistance And Weakness Was Suggested Below 16880-16860 And After Opening Around 16950 Once BNF Traded Below 16860 It Was Bound To Be A Strong Down Move

But As Even 16750 Could Not Support This Single Day Crash May Have Ended The Up Move From 16200

A CLOSE Above 16750-16824 In Next Couple Of Days Can Still Bring In Some Hope

16750-16824 STRONG HURDLES WHILE 16544-16363 Can Give Some Support But Such A SINGLE Day Carnage Suggests That Even 16200 Seems To Be In Danger

BANK NIFTY EOD:

In My Weekly Chart Book I Suggested That DOW JONES & NIKKEI Both Seems To Have Been Forming LOWER TOPs

Here Is Up Dated DOW Chart:

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 04012016:

NIFTY:

The 1st Weekly Technical View For The New Year 2016 Has A Lot Of Copy+Paste From Last Two WWEKLY CHART BOOKs

NIFTY Witnessed A Mild Correction Which Did Not Breach My SUPPORT Given Here At 7890 And Recovered Smartly Reaching Near 8000 Level

What I Wrote On 21st December

'' Let Us First Re Define The TRENDs

SHORT TERM : UP (In Danger Below 7706)

MEDIUM TERM : DOWN ( Up Only On A Close Above 8034)

LONG TERM: UP

The Week Gone By Has Created A Number Of Probabilities For The Future Of Our Markets Not Only For Next Week But For Coming Few Weeks

The First Important Probability Is That This Up Move Is The FIRST LEG Of A New Bull Move As On EOD Charts It Looks Like A '' V '' Shape Recovery

For This To Be True NIFTY Must NOT CLOSE Below 7700 Next Week And After Finding Support Around 7700 It Should Again CLOSE Above 7776 (7810 NF) ''

This Suggested Probability Has A Lot Of Potential Now

On 28Th December I Wrote This

'' In My Opinion This 300+ NIFTY Up Move Can Be The First Leg Of A New Bull Wave

There Are IFs And BUTs And We May Have Better Clue By Next Week Or Maximum By Next Fortnight As Every Thing Depends Upon The Correction Of The Recent Up Move Which Is Due Any Time

We Will Have A Firm HIGHER BOTTOM Against The Previous Low Of 7551 After We Can Have A Temporary TOP May Be Around 8000

And The PROCESS Of The HIGHER BOTTOM Formation Will Decide If We Are Already In A NEW BULL Wave Or Not''

Comments Of Above 2 Weekly Reports Applies Even Now

And In Coming Weeks 7810 Becomes A Very Important Level To Watch And PROBABLY THE BEST BUYING OPPORTUNITY Will Be Around 7810

Depending Upon How SPEEDY The EXPECTED Correction Will Be

WATCH 8000-8034 FOR NIFTY As A SUPPLY ZONE Next Week

And A WEEKLY CLOSE Above 8034 Will Be EXTREMELY POSITIVE For Us

Stocks Like LARSEN ,SBIN,ICICI,AXIS Are My Concerns

The WEEK GONE BY:

I Had Suggested A Down Side Correction Mid Week NIFTY Responded Just For A Day But My Level Below Which I Expected A Sharp Correction Was 7890 Which NF Did Not Breach

For Friday My Support Was 7920 And NF Made A Low Of 7922 And Crossed 7960 With A Positive Candle

So For Next Few Days Correction Will Come ONLY On A CLOSE Below 7920-7890 NF Levels

7852-7835 Is A ZONE Which Can Be A SAR For NIFTY

Nifty EOD:

NIFTY WEEKLY :

BANK NIFTY:

I Said On 31st

" More Damage Possible ONLY Below 16880-16860 Price Zone For BNF''

BNF Made A LOW Of 16630 But EVEN A ONE Minute CANDLE CLOSE Was Not Below 16860 And In A STRONG Bounce Back BNF Did Touch My Target Of 17143

Both NIFTY & BANK NIFTY Had Very Strong WEEKLY Candles Which Suggests BUYING ON DIPs But We Should Watch The CORRECTION Very Carefully

Correction Will Come May Be From 17200 or 17380 Around