a base formation or a distribution phase again ?

a strong up move took place from around 2400 nifty levels,but nifty could not cross 3223 on closing basis,but the following fall was having a very lesser speed and venom in it,even with bad news still flowing from us and even other world economies,nifty didnot break october lows,and took support at 78.6% of the rise,and as i mentioned with a lesser venom,this probably could be a very good base formation process ON ...naturally our markets are not going to see a steep bounce back suddenly, but if october lows are not broken till jan -09,,,i think we may well have seen the bottom.alternatively now onwards if markets cant hold october lows ,and if even 2200 is broken ,we will see nifty tobe touching 1587......personally i think this will not happen,and slowly but steadily india markets will start deviating from us and europe economies...as there is a very very real differnce between the PHONY ECONOMY of the usa and the real economy of india..after all the usa investments in india has seen a significant downside, so once this withdrawal process stops, the dollar will start cracking down and that will be the real turning point for india markets

first good signs

where are we headed ?

2863 and 2746 are two supports for nifty...if these levels are not broken and if nifty closes above 3223...4100 is also possible...BUT..IF 2746 IS BROKEN ON THE CLOSING BASIS WE MAY SEE OCTOBER LOWS AROUND 2200 AGAIN

india markets hit the bottoms

technical analysis demands,certain evidence which CAN suggest that the prevailing trend has been reversed,,,markets so many times produce such mooves that a technician starts believing that the end of the current phase is very much near,but market fools him,such things happen so many times during a strong trend that at one stage he just stop looking at such reversal signals and just wait for the LATE BUT CONFIRMED reversal signals,and he argues that ,,let the market itself say that its turning !!!!!!!....infact ,nothing wrong in such an attitude,but...at present the whole world market and india in particular is producing such signals that ,,,,,clearly suggests TO ME me that ...theres a very very high probabilty that sensex and nifty had seen their respective bottoms at their lows yesterday....such strong bearish trends cant reverse their course all of a sudden and overnight,,there will be some pattern formation on daily charts ,there will be abottom testing,there may be another small leg of downward move to produce positive divergance for the rsis and rocs ...a 3-6 months consolidation phase will be there........and as bottom formation in general phases out sector wise..some weak sectors will be seeing still lower levels in the medium term future,,but most of the active and fundamentally stronger stocks have seen their bottoms as on yesterday..
as we all know, psychology plays the most important role in markets,and at the pick of a typical top or a typical bottom the greed & fear factors reaches there extreme,,although there is no measurement for them...by just collecting news paper clips,,video clips of tv shows for one week..and watching both in a silent room can give a clue..in my opinion the fear factor is at its best now than ever before !!! fear among who ?? ,,a day trader is in its greep,an investor is out of the markets,,,infact selling his holding at current lelvels... there is redemption pressure on mutual funds.,an economist draws a gloomy picture....govt. auhorities at last accepting that yes we may be in recession{read mr.bernanke}..and the whole media..is in the bear hug......the picture is exactly reverse of the one which we saw in jan-08.....remember my words the long term india story is quite intact,,find out a country in the whole world thats been growing in the recent decade {after china} with a gdp of over 7%...so,this is the BEST TIME TO INVEST IN INDIA.
BJNAIK.17 October, 20083:47:08 AM

time to INVEST

HI, ALL...today morning , we are going to see one of the worst opening for even our markets, and having seen such turbulance times on many occasions, and having studied daily ,weekly, monthly charts i suggest to buy following shares, with an investment point of view, with a target of 30-40 % return within a time-span of 3 months....we will check opening prices of these stocks tonight.
1} bharat forge
2}bombay dyeing
3}guj alkalies
4}guj mineral
5}hinduja ventures
6}jp associates
7}micro inks
8}neyvelli lignites
9}ranbaxy
10}rel. petro
11}sterlite

technical analysis

what a turbulant period we are as a participents of stock-markets watching through !!!!!...learned masters of the great subject technical analysis,,like john murphy,adwerd & maggie,steve nisson,martin pring,,and most others illustrated the effects of human psychology and especially greed and fear in details in their master works,, years back on the stock market behaviour and vow !!!!!! we are watching these factors working live...erosion of wealth of common investor on such a massive scale is really very very sad..a speculator who trades blindly and against the trend can easily loose his entire life time savings in only a few days,,like these...i have been taking a class recently to teach technical analysis to a few young generation traders since last 20 days, beyond general technical analysis i gave importance to greed & fear and the real psychology of markets in last few days,,the impact of my teaching was so good that they virtually stopped trading in the manner they were used to ...and all in their own words saved atleast 2-3 lacs of rupees....hates off to the great subject !!!!!!!

a quarter ends with positive techno-funda factors...take a note

in todays article,i am trying to present my thoughts on fundamental projections of india economy based on techniacal analysis of our indices.before looking at technical position of sensex and nifty,i would like to draw attention to the fact that since mid-july our indices started to deviate from the world indices,especially the asian inidices quite dramatically..i as a student of the great subject of technical analysis have been learning one very very important so called golden rule of the subject ..MARKETS DISCOUNTS THE FUTUE.. i have read this one sentence time and again in almost all the great books on the subject,and i do believe and i always express my thoughts on technical picture keeping this in mind.the deviation of our indices from other markets from mid -july onwards ,now as on yesterday if one observes charts of world market indices, its easy to find out that only 4-5 indices have not broken the july lows,,and india is one of them..this is clearly the net effect of the deviation process started from mid july.now the question is ..that weather this clear strenth shown by indian indices is the indication of great strenth of indian economy as well ???..i am here trying to have an answer of this question using my way of doing technical analysis.their are very very clear two possibilities of where our markets are headed..its not that they are either going to go up or down...the answer of what lies ahead depends upon a trading range breakout and in my opinion the breakout will be coming very soon ,perhaps within next 2 months..
i here would like to note some fundamental developments in last 2 months,
1} oil coming down from 147 usd to less than 100 usd and looking to its weekly charts i think its headed much lower ,atleast in the medium term future, india is among very few countries where lower commodities price ,especially is a boon to its economy....inflation must come down in the medium term..so the interest rates may also have topped out.
2} reliance industries ,the giant of indian companies announced last week the driiling of oil and gas from the KG-BASIN has been started ,and one important ALMOST UNNOTICED ANNOUNCEMENT from mukesh ambani was that within 18 months from the start ril will be able to produce 40% of indias total oil demand per year,,as on today, indian oil import is 1/3 of its total import and should be roughly more than 50 billion usd...{was 44 billion usd in 2006},now just take out 40% out of this amount which will ultimately be REMAINING IN THE COUNTRY ITSELF....i am not an economist but my commonsense suggests me it will have a huge impact.
3} clearance from NSG and neuclear deal with the USA ...it will take more than 5 years for the real impact of this factor ,but the different sorts of news that will follow in coming months ...like a new nuke deal with france or germany or any other country,,,than news that indias old nuke plants actually getting uranium from other countries and news that a certain company announcing building of nuke plant ...and so on ..will surely have positive psychological impact on investors..
4}THE USA in last few months seen quite a few of its major financial companies collapsing starting from bear sterns to fennie and freddy ,to the giant lehman and wamu followed by wachovia.....none of the indian banks have any MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS SORT .this shows atleast upto this day that theres no direct impact of subprime crisis OF USA in india.
these are the few fundamentl changes took placed in last months,their positive impact is yet tobe felt on the markets in a big way..more on technicals today evening.but would love to mention one technical aspect of yesterdays close ,was that yesterday a new quarter was ended,and quarterly charts of SBI,HDFC,ONGC...only a few of more..is showing quarterly bullish canlestick patterns suggesting trend reversal on quarterly basis !!!!!...simply put..only a day after the US markets closed down collapsing the most after 1987..some of the indian major are showing signs of bullishness...quite unbelievable.. but thats true...as the saying goes on charts speaks..we have to hear them...........................
bjnaik.

a strong bounce back from supports

on 24 th august i wrote here that if next 2 weeks markets are unable stop the loosing streak we are sure to see july lows,,,which are offcourse very very strong supports for india markets,yesterday i posted an article suggesting that we may first see a bounce upto 4200-4300 and 14300 levels,than we may get supports at 3790...12500 levels,,,i also said that the strenth in sbi .larsen ,ntpc and monthly structure of reliance suggests that the july lows will be giving strong support to our markets ....but what a moove in just two days,!!!!!!!!,today it touched 3799 amidst strong bearishness the world over..i do not think any one would have given a thought of such a strong and mighty bounce back..but thats markets for you,,a strong double bottom formation on daily charts.just a day left in the week,if inflation figures can give pleasent surprise,,tomorrow too this rally can get extended which will form a weekly hammer pattern in indices and also in some major stocks so who knows ....we again may have seen a very very strong bottom.perhaps much stronger than when these levels were hit in july-08...and remember to have a glance at india charts and compare them with the world market charts.

what lies ahead for india markets ??

as i wrote on 24th august,that next two weeks are crucial for the markets,if the downtrend is not arrested we may see a crash upto july lows...markets behaved as suspected ( not expected !!)..the news of nsg waiver for india could only make a lower top on the daily charts,and the week- end closing completed the lower top-lower bottom bottom formation,,despite good IIP numbers,,,followed by possible one of the worst news on usa financial crisis...lehmen gone...merryl taken-over and aig in deep trouble...played is roll in taking the indices very much near to the july lows..but having seen some strong value buying at lower levels..a question arises as usual whats next ??...here i am trying to explain a few possibilities..
1} the most optimistic possibility is that the indian markets may have tasted the july lows by remaing a little higher..nifty at around 3900...against 3790...and sensex at 13000 against 12500...in both indices and on both GAAPED DOWN days indices have succeded in taking supports at around 78.6% of the rise..{an imp fib level}...and infact on both days closed above this levels.now, there is a visible h&s topping pattern on both indices ..targets of which have been achieved..but the neckline of the h&S will prove tobe resistance for the next up move..at around 4280 and 14300 levels in nifty and sensex..using fibonacci tool we can resitance levels at 14316..{50 % of the entire fall} and 14332 {38.2% of the recent fall } for sensex...4284 and 4313..for nifty so , in my opinion as the resistance levels meet from three angles at around 14300 and 4300..we should first see these levels...remember as usual markets bottom out in unusual fundamental situations and india markets have clearly shown their strenth against its asian peers..compare the charts of hanseng with sensex and the picture will be very much clear...if the firts possibilty really turns out to be a reality,, we will than have to check what happens at the resistance levels..if we have hit the deck than naturally after giving some reaction indices will continue the upward journey.
2}a little bit otimistic possibilty is that indices will get resisted at the above mentioned resistance levels,and come back to the july lows..but their rally from yesterdays lows to around 4300 and 14300 will give a boost to the important indicators and they will generate a buy call creating positive divergances when indices hit the july lows{ breaking yesterdays lows}...thus creating fair chances of strong double bottom formation in indices,,,remember that july lows are the strong support levels...
3} the more pessimistic scenerio will be that indices will not even cross the 14000 and 4200 levels and fall back sharply to continue the lower top- lower bottom formations nad touch the last major supports at 11907 and 3610 levels..looking at the movement in certain heavy weight stocks ,like sbi ,bhel, larsen, ntpc...and most importantly looking at the monthly chart structure of reliance industries i DO NOT SEE our indices going below 11907 and 3610 in any circumstances..
also ,with this writing i am presenting a chart of nifty-1 minute ,a few days back..which seems as a copy of the longer term sensex chart..and i do favour a consolidation in indices around these levels i.e. betn. 12000-17000 for may be 2-3 years before breaking upwards..and as i have written on my blog about the advance mooves that reliance capital takes,, ahead of nifty..i am presenting an hourly chart of reliance capital and nifty as on yesterday ..it s clear that capital broke the monday high at the hour ended at 3:00 pm..and nifty will break the same level today morning..showing again that capital leads..and a weekly chart of capital is showing an inverted h&S pattern..if that completes ,who knows we may really have hit a bottom !!!!!!!Wednesday, ...bjn.

logic of big players and media

want to express my thoughts on logic of {sometimes very confusing and even seemingly funny logic},big market players and media........when oil was shooting up from around 110 usd levels,concerns were expressed that high oil prices will adversly affect the economy,,viz..high inflation-------higher interest rates----so higher cost of mony for the companies-----lower profits----slow down of the economy,,,oil reached 140s and fear gripped even the analysts...in the meantime oil started its southward journy---but within a period of 2-3 months the central bank tightened its measures,,,resulting in higher interest rates,,,so now every one said it will be a very heavy slow-down,,,economic figures responded this thought briefly during may-june..but bounced back smartly as per the figures released yesterday...now intersting things started to happen,,,oil tanks to 100 usd...a massive erosion of 47 usd per barrel in a short 2-3 months period,,,comments from media ???? economies world over are so much in bearish mood that they will consume lesser oil..so lower demand and lower price..naturally !!!!!!!!!....untill almost yesterday media expected the economy to slow-down ,,right ??? suddenlY the IIP data showed that they were much stronger THAN WERE EXPECTED !!!!!!!!!!...after the data were released the markets bounced back from their intraday lows very smartly...untill 2:45 pm picture looked quite rosy..that markets are welcoming good iip numbers...last funny act starts here...banks which were up smartly from their lows of the day..suddenly started crashing..and so were the indices....thoughts of big players and media ??? very very intersting.....now that economy has showed its so called underlying strenth ,,,the central bank CAN take more steps in the direction of tightening..ANOTHER HIKE IN THE INTEREST RATES..{economy is so strong it can withstand it}...and so more pressure on banks ..so they are tanking !!!!!!!!!!...intersting and funny ,isnt it ???

HOW THE NEW INDICATOR HAS WORKED IN LIVE MARKETS TODAY

HI,SEE THE 1 MIN CHARTS ATTACHED HERE,,,, OF NIFTY AND REL CAPITAL..ITS LIKE BELIEVE IT OR NOT...BUT WORKIN IN LIVE MARKETS,BOTH WAYS..CAPITAL BROKE THE MORNING LOWS A FEW MINS. EARLIER TO NIFTY.....NIFTY FOLLOWED WITH A CRACK...THAN CAPITAL MADE A DOUBLE BOTTOM REVERSAL PATTERN AGAIN FEW MINS. EARLIER THAN NIFTY...NIFTY FOLLOWED BY A RISE OF SOME GOOD 30 ODD POINTS.....................CAPITAL LEADS..

a new INDICATOR revealed for the indian markets

hi,i have seen this stuff almost a year back,when i found its been repeating itself almost everytime,,,i started to study it on intraday basis,and vow !! i was happily surprised how stunning ,how accurate it was..yes its a new indicator for india markets....i am not talking about a formulae..or another calulation stuff..its one leading stock..which actually leads nifty mooves..as an analyst and as a trader whenever i was confused about next move in nifty..had a glance a rel capital intraday charts { even 1 min charts has answer } and vow!!! i almost always got a clue..presenting sixcharts ,each of nifty and rel. capital...see by yourself how dynamic my ADVANCE INDICATOR is...

whats next ?

our indices are at a very very crucial stage,a stage from which they can either break-up or brak down,it looks as simple as that,but its not,,,coz. the upside seems limited atleast for medium term,,since there are very steep resistances that indices left while sleeping down from jan-08,,but my worries for the down-side !! if in next two weeks indices cant stop going down..they will be surely either going to break the july-08 lows or atleast test those lows at 12500--3790 for sensex -nifty.and if the major supports at 11907-3600 by max. are not held..they will not only moove down faster but the time they will take to recover will be far more than a normal investor hopes.and my views of our markets just passing on time { 2-3 years may be} in a broader range will be in danger.ideally if indices starts mooving up on weekly closing basis from next week or two,than their will be fair chances of reaching them up-to even 17100--5300 range..if that happens than they will suely enter into a very broad range ,,A CORRECTION THAT WILL PASS-ON MORE TIME,,THAN A CORRECTION MORE SEVERE PRICE WISE..
Next week will be{ as per my gutsy feeling,} a decider week,in terms of clearity that weather this is a bear market rally only or its an upmove ,as a part of larger corrective rally..which will ultimately put indices in a higher orbit, after sideways corrective phase..august -08 is crucial as a month since its an eigth month {a fibonacci number} from the top.

Use Right Tools For Trending Or Non Trending Markets « Majhi Duniya

Use Right Tools For Trending Or Non Trending Markets « Majhi Duniya

nearing a bottom

hi ,all..when i called a top at 20870 on 12-jan-08,i never expected such severe correction to take place..but markets never moove as per our EXPECTATIONS !!!!!..this is an universal truth.a lot of us thought that as everyone expects 12000..market will not come to that level..but i think the speedy communication systems have changed that perception..spread of the great subject is so immence that everyone comes to know the level of supports and resistance in no time..but i think as i EXPECTED in jan -08 itself that we are heading for a 2-3 years of consolidation phase..the range may have changed but till now i stick to the point that THIS FALL IS CORRECTIVE IN NATURE ONLY....the question is that which rise is being corrected ?? the one from sept -01...oct-02 or the one from may 04 ??..few technical points to be discussed..
1)the bearishness as seen in last few days is at the extreme..exactly as bullishness was at its best in jan-o8..so as per rules its a time to call a bottom very much nearby...no one knew in jan-08 that inflation will reach such dizzy heights or oil will threaten to touch 150..or our gdp will have tobe re-rated to slow down as hefty as more than 2% within short span of six months...but MARKET KNEW ALL THESE CHANGES ARE COMING IN MACRO-ECONOMY OF THE COUNTRY..AND TECHNICALLY I CALLED IT A MAJOR TOP....is the reverse going to happen this time?? the answer is yes...how stronger a bottom we will see in the future.but i am sure we are very much near a BOTTOM....as i have been mentioning in all my articles THE MARKET DISCOUNTS THE FUTURE..so these hefty fall in indices is surely worth a fall of 2-3% of GDP..and remember that not a single blue-chip company listed in nse or bse has stopped working !!..its only that EXTREME GRID which was reflected in zooming and unrealistic prices has been CORRECTED..and now is the time to correct the prices which are too much below FUTURE FUNDAMENTALGROWTH because of EXTREME FEAR....
2)THE ROC AND MACD on weekly charts have shown a clear positive divergance in highly oversold zone.. which will help the bear onslaught.
3)if you see the weekly charts of sensex and nifty it is very much clearly evident that the whole fall has come in three segments UNTILL NOW..AND as the fall is nearing some major supports mentioned as under i think that the fall is CORRECTIVE BY NATURE.
4)I HAVE SEEN one important use of fibonacci ratios, that when you can see a distribution or accmulation on the charts you can set the targets of the last phase after the distrbution or accumulation phase ends..we can see a DISTRIBUTION phase was going on between march -may 08..targets of which are 12226 and 3637 in sensex and nifty respectively ..one can understan my concept by looking at attached charts.
5) here are some fibonacci ratios for indices,a) if you take the low of may-04 to the top of jan-08..12688 and 3813 are the 50% retracement levels...B) FROM APRIL-03 LOW TO THE TOP IN JAN-08..50% rretracement level is 3631 C) octo-02 low and jan -08 top..12013 is a 50% retracement level for sensex..D)IF WE TAKE SPET-01 LOW AND JAN-08 TOP..11907--3605 ARE THE 50% RETRACEMENT LEVELS...........
...so weather the markets are getting corrected off the rise from the lows of 2002---2003 or 2004...the 50 % retracement levels are between 11907---12688..my target is 12226..for nifty it comes in between 3605--3813...
6)the highs made by indices tends to give support when they get corrected..we have a SIGNIFICANT HIGH of 12671--3774 made in may- 2006..
7)similarly for SIGNIFICANT LOWS we have lows of 12316--3554 made in panics of march-07....SO MY CONCLUSION IS WE ARE VERY MUCH NEAR A SIGNIFICANT BOTTOM.
BHAVESH NAIK.Wednesday, 02 July, 200808:21:36 AM

sensex channel

Hi ,all...in just 15 days our markets behaved exactly as I expected,and yesterdays strong moove, made a BULLISH candle reversal pattern,suggesting that both,sensex and nifty took support exactly at the lower end of the channel drawn and the sensex chart was sent on 30th april..I quote a small para of that article........"3)the current up move in indices have a few important points to be noted,,the moove looks tobe making an upward channel the slope of which is NOT very encouraging,,but actually supports my view of a long term sideways phase,, that i expect.,,the channel target in a short term in nifty around 5300 and around 17800 in sensex...expect some correction in the channle itself to take support at the lower end of the channel...".....as you can clearly see in the sensex chart ..yesterdays low was the lower end of the channel...we saw a hefty 400 points bounce -back from the support..
Some important points to be noted as per latest chart development...
May 15, 2008 (7:31am)
1} as I wrote about SAR..an indicator which would generate a buy signal on the weekly charts,,it really did the same and is now in a clear buy mode
2}all the short term moving averages that I use..are on the verge of taking support on a little higher period moving averages..if indices maintain bullishness atleast for 2-3 more days,these moving average support will cause a very speedy up-side moove..
3}IF SENSEX AND NIFTY AND FEW IMPORTANT MARKET MOOVERS LIKE RELIANCE...MAINTAINS EVEN A SIDEWAYS MOOVE IN THE RANGE OF LAST 15 DAYS...AND DOESNOT FALL MUCH...WE WILL SEE MOST ANALYSTS WRITING ABOUT A STRONG REVERSAL PATTERN """INVERTED H&S"...the implication of this pattern if actually completed will be of huge magnitude...giving targets for sensex around 21000,,and for nifty around 6100...!!!!!!!!!!!!
..enjoy...bjnaik..May 15, 2008 (7:32am)

what next????

hi,all..i am very much pleased the way indices have responded the major supports including 89 week Ema and some fibonacci ratios,,targets of 5158 and 17149 mentioned in the 17th april article were achieved in both indices yesterday,,and that too with huge volumes and very very positive market breadh at 2314:::1588,huge volume is certainly a very positive aspect of the current move ,suggesting that indices MIGHT have made stronger than most analysts expectations,,and any fall in coming days will be viewed as CORRECTIVE and termed as buying opportunity only...i hope happy days are here again..!!!!!!!!!!.important question now is what next???,,here in my technical observation i am trying to explain my views on ,,,the question ,WHAT NEXT????

1)i would like to take all of you a little bit back,,on january 12th when hardly any- one ever dared to mention about a top in indices and possibilty of correction,i wrote IN MY OPINION OUR MARKETS ARE RIPE FOR A DEEPER CORRECTION NOW THAN EVER BEFORE, and i mentioned about possibility of a correction of 3000-4000 points..when sensex was at 20827...the rest is a history,,mind you my article was sent to technicals@reutersindia.net and was published on my blog bhoom2tika@blogspot.com,,, now i want to point-out one important aspect of technical analysis,,when we learn the subject one thing we have to believe in is,,MARKETS ALWAYS DICOUNTS THE FUTURE...meaning markets moove in advance ahead of what is going to happen in the future...after when our markets fell heavily from mid jan to mid march period,,economic data started to come as if india inc. is slowing down,,gdp data of february were drastically lower and than suddenly inflation started to rise alarmingly,and GDP projections for fy -09 came down to around 8% FROM THE PICK OF 9-9.5% IN LAST TWO YEARS,,,WHY THEN ??? the indices made bottoms and rose around 3000 points from their bottoms???,THE ANSWER IS SIMPLE,, a 1-1.5% fall in GDP for the coming,, financial year was very well- known to the markets,,means 1-1.5% FALL IN GDP = 6000 POINTS OF FALL IN SENSEX....thats it,,,and markets bottoming out now means ,,no more worries for the economy in the medium term future !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!,
2)another point i mentioned in my jan-08 article was that the highs of the stocks that we are seeing now will not be seen for 6-8 months,,I WOULD LOVE to change the sentence a little,,although we might have
made a strong bottom,,in my opinion,the highs of jan-08 will not be seen in certain sectors for even 2-3 YEARS,,,WHY?? i can see a long term sideways correction in india in the range of roughly 15000-20000 points as in sensex...india is a great growth story but i think we need a PAUSE,,AFTER a 4 years long bull run,,so the contnuing correction would be prolonged TIME wise and no more PRICE wice...certain sectors will offcource go to new highs while sensex and nifty remains in the broader range...a look at the bse-auto index will clearly suggest what i EXPECT.
3)the current up move in indices have a few important points to be noted,,the moove looks tobe making an upward channel the slope of which is NOT very encouraging,,but actually supports my view of a long term sideways phase,, that i expect.,,the channel target in a short term in nifty around 5300 and around 17800 in sensex...expect some correction in the channle itself to take support at the lower end of the channel.
4) indices and so many other frontline stocks are on the verge ,(today being the last day of the month) of making a very bullish candle pattern on the monthly charts,,in most cases A BULLISH ENGULFING pattern,,the expection of a corrective move in the channel will be taking supports of the same monthly candle patterns.
5) last two weeks move in indices on the weekly charts is even better than all the past deeper corrections,,an indicator called PARABOLIC--SAR,,will generate a BUY siGnal called STOP & REVERSE. in the next week ,,and also a band of 3-5-8 weekly Ema is generating a copy- book style BUY SIGNAL..wekly charts now needs only 1-2 weeks sideways correction to generate buy signals in so many other indicators.
6) if indices remains in the channel my targets would be around 18500 and 5370 -5440 in sensex and nifty for medium term.......................enjoy bjn..Wednesday, April 30, 2008

a breakout??

By god's grace, on jan 12 - I wrote an articale, wich was sent to even reuters, in which i clearly mentioned, " In my opinion our market is ripe for a deeper correction now then ever before, point wise it could well be around 3000 - 4000 points "..... What happend in last 3 months is now a history..." A city bank ceo had given a target of 25000 of sensex in first week of january...now he is revising it to 19000 for 2008...this tells everything....but iwrote another article on 13th march..i titled it BOTTOM..and i said " all in all in my opinion we are almost at the bottom.." i gave a cluster of supports around 14600 and 4480 in sensex and nifty respectively...i also said that dow has a strong reversal indication on weekly charts called positive divergance...on that day sensex was 15357 and nifty was 4623..dow had a low of 11750...after my article was written sensex made low of 14677 and nifty made a low of 4468 as on yesterday dow is almost 900 points up and with todays moove sensex would be 2000 points up and nifty almost 500 points....my subject technical analysis is called an ART in itself and the beuty of our art is in identifying turning points of major moooves...i think uptill now my art has worked perfectly admitting that precise points of reversal are known to the gods only who doesnot trade..!!!!!! but with we can be trading safely..for as long as markets run..in my opinion a close above 4971 and above 16500 around in nifty and sensex will pu our markets in medium term bullish mode ,,,with targets around 5158..and 17157 in near future..a close above 4971 will be followed by good news on fundamentals of the economy......enjoy..bjnaik. Thursday, April 17, 2008

divergance effect on DOW

YESTERDAY NIGHT WHEN I STARTED POSTING MY ARTICLE..bottom...dow was down 225 odd points,i felt the heat of it,but i said to a friend it must recover from this lows ,today itself,as there is a very very strong divergance in weekly stochastics,and vow!!!!!!!!!!!!! on bloomberg ,came the news from s&p, that it sees the end of writedowns..the devil of all the havoc is on the verge of getting disappeared,,,and suddenly dow started to bounce- back..i thought even a bearish hammer with some 50 odd points negative close would be an enough trigger for our markets..no,,it closed in plus..and i said to myself this is how technicals works...

bottom

there are fiew important things tobe noted about current technical status of our market...and dow...1}dow has given a strong positive divergance on WEEKLY CHARTS ..a divergance is a pure technical term which suggests that an indicator is DIVERTING itself from actual price action...2}as tomorrows market also seems to open low..it will give the same divergence in DAILY charts..for both sensex and nifty..3}there are certain fibonaci supports for sensex and nifty 4425,4429,4479....14966,14723,14673 ...4}one imp sensex high which should support is 14908..5}one important weekly moving average which has supported sensex since 2003..in every fall untill now.is 89 week ma..which is currently at 15198..this is a very very important trade decider for our current bull market.for nifty it is 4487....6} i have seen on sensex and nifty charts an imp daily ma has been giving a very good support ..it is 377 day{a fibonacci no} day ema for sensex its at 15606 and for nifty it is at 4606..7} an all important trendline on which our current bull run has been riding since it started..is at the same sensex levels where all above supports are lying at present ..15100 and 4480 ..8} weekly stochastic is in oversold zone with daily giving divergance ...this 2 periods combination as an interpretation works very well even on intraday charts..it should work in few days also..(9) with all these .i have seen over the years that market behaves on its own ,,,and as if its a living entity in itself..market never does which almost every participant thinks that he knows where the market will go....today you ask anyone..12000 for sensex is the most common target for everyone !!!!!..i think market will bounce back much before these commonly anticipated levels...all in all in my opinion we are almost at the BOTTOM...last but not the least..i have one very good observation on fibonacci retracements..after a fall when an index gets into accumulation or distribution phase that distribution phase normally ends at a point .which is the point that when u join the top and the bottom the accumulation zone lies at around and MOSTLY in between 38.2 and 61.8 zone..just have a look at the current accumulation zone 17341 and 18391 are two ratios if u take 14900 a probable bottom...and u can clearly see that sensex was clearly distributed between those levels before it broke down................................................................WITH BEST WISHES TO ALL....BHAVESH J NAIK. 21:11 13/03/2008

value buying

hi ,all...whoever went through my views would have been experiencing a stunning experience,in last 3 days.responding precisely what i wrote,(but ,too fast ,even for my thinking)sensex and almost all indices,came back to the 200 day m.a.,and look how they were supported yesterday,in my opinion,we would have bottomed out,,and should we enter a mid-term sideways face,a smart pullback rally should start in a day or two.,on of important view i have on yesterdays market,was the lows most of the f&o and active midcap stocks made,for us technicians,mass --common man is the key,in studying technical analysis,now , who sold on at yesterdays lows??.,,,take a glance at few stocks and their price range for last 4-5 days,,,,
1)rnrl 220 .... 79
2)rpl 230 ..... 106
3)jp hydro 125.....55
4)alok tex 100....46
5)rel. capital 2700...1310
6)chambal ferti. 80 .....31
7)wwil 84......35
now ,compare those un realistic range,,,and this list is endless...but poses a terrible picture..at first glance it seems as if indian economy is getting bearish signal in advance...BUT... my question is ,who sold at those lows??? was it he???, my common man??? ...the answer is simple but a sure one...NO NO NO ...THOSE STOCKS WERE SOLD BY BROKERS...OR BY EXCHANGES ON BEHALF OF BROKERS.. as those stocks were kept as a margin fund for the exposure given to the SPECULATOR IN F&O, in my view the mass was infact rushing with cheques and demand drafts...as fast as he can to buy at those cheapest levels...so al in all ..what am i saying??? market is going to bounce back very sharply,,,it can and should form some accmulation price- patterns,,,,different from stock -to -stock.., taking some time ..but its a great opportunity to enter the great india growth story...as always deep cuts like this has proven in past few years....history will repeat itself ..here too....bhavesh naik ....23-01-08 8:15 am

correction

DEAR FRIENDS......, I have been giving technical calls for the matkets to you,some of you are new clients, and some of you are with me since 2005,i am writing this and presenting all of you with charts of sensex and some scripts ,to enable all of you tobe very much on the safe side, for all the periods in the market.let"s discuss something about charts and the markets....first. aceept one thing that the market (as a whole) ,is like a living entity,,no one ,,remember no one can say anything about it ..with 100% accuracy,as it behaves in its own way..at its own speed....second...no operator ,no fii, no other institution..can affect the market for TOO long,some of them can trigger some movement,or can have some impact for few days but no t for very vey long periods....THIRD. there are thousands of harshad mehtas or ketan parekhs..in todays indian market.....what does all these mean???? ...it means that,,technical analysis is the only answer for really really profitable trading...coz.it can find out where an operator is getting active..or it can find where some institutions or fiis are buying or selling..and it can give u PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS...my experience with almost all my clients and all the traders in general is that they do not have coreect entry---exit points.,,since india is a great growth story and we are in a great bull-run ,the traders who enters at a high price have been able to survive,even after loosing 10-15 % off their buying price coz..UNTILL NOW even after crashing 1000-1500 points markets have bounced back and the than higher buying price have again been reached...but ..as i am presenting bse-sensex chart with this article...one can see in the chart that there have been crashes after which sensex have picked up nicely ,,for a new highs...but u can see in the charts of bse-auto,,bse-it,,and bse- cement are in bear phase from now ..or ATLEAST. in a corrective phase..which to me suggests that the whole market may enter into a sideways phase for 6-12 months,after.. around budget time...will talk during our discussion ..why???..later.but my point to all of u is ...if sensex crashes 2000-3000 points from say 22000 levels ..AND DOES NOT RECOVER FASTER AS IT USED TO DO..what wiil be about u???..especially if you will have entered at a higher level ..and without stoplosses???
remember one thing that i am not bearish on the indian markets,but we have suddenly reached at such a height that nobody...except on person who is a master in neo-wave analysis,who predicted 20k+ for sensex way- back in 1998,his name is vivek patil.i do follow the wave theory too,so this level of sensex is no more surprise for me..AND I DO BELIEVE THAT WE ARE BOUND TO REACH NEWER HIGHS,,,EVEN 50000 .!!!!!..YES 50000!!! FOR SENSEX IS ALSO POSSIBE, but it will take long period to reach upto that height,,,but my purpose to warn all of you now is that..in my opinion our market is ripe for a deeper correction now than ever before..point- wise it could well be of around 3000-4000 points ,but my worry is the TIME it will take to correct ,it will be a SIDEWAYS correction,during which we will not be able to see the buying price..if bot at higher levels..for 6-9 months or even much longer...WHY AM I SAYING THIS?,TAKE A LOOK AT SOME FUNDAMENTAL REASONS,1)national election due next year..2)US economy seems to be in some serious trouble...GOOD FOR INDIA IN A LONG RUN....BUT for the short to intermediate term..it will surely have impact on our fundamentals..3) do not forget the partial unwinding of P-NOTES,it has still got around an year...but who will wait untill the last date?? 4)in the stock -market every participent must remember one important quote...HISTORY REPEATS IT SELF..remember what happened when a mega issue of reliance petro,got listed ,,the whole market went down heavily from the listing day,,,this time around its time of another reliance issue ,,which will be getting listed around end -jan- 08 5) budget period is always a crucial period this year it will be a budget which will give something more to the COMMON-MAN AND THE FARMER and not to the business-man...... following are some of the technical reasons..
1)in our subject there are number of tools that we use to analyze the TREND of the market ,one is 200 day moving average..its an average calulated every-day ..by taking last 200 days closing price,,its believed tobe a good tool to decide MAJOR TREND,if the index remains above it the trend is BULLISH ,while below the average the trend is bearish..200 day m.a. gives a good support whenever the market corrects,i am giving you the examples of how it has worked in the past few years ,after sensex entered a MAJOR BULL-RUN ,in 2003....i am giving u dates and the levels of sensex and the average...on the chart of sensex 200 day m.a. is plotted ,where u can see how it has supported sensex in the past,................DATE 200 DAY M.A. SENSEX
1) 04-04-03 3165 3130
2) 13-05-04 5174 5131
3) 29-04-05 5990 6154
4) 24-07-06 10022 9875
5) 16-03-07 12367 12316
6) 21-08-07 13983 13941
ALL of you can very clearly see these figures and can compare them with the sensex chart...look how every year atleast once sensex has corrected and got supported at 200 day m.a. my perception is that correction in sensex will start around jan -feb 2008 as on last friday on 11-01-08 the 200 day m.a. value was 16343 and sensex closing was 20827.. the correction which may last for few months and during next june-july(this is pure guessing..i.e. june -july) sensex will be supported by 200 day m.a.it will be for the first time in 2008 ,sensex will try to find support at 200 day m.a. ,
2) AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, HISTORY REPEATS IT SELF...our sensex has historically topped every 2 year
1) APRIL -98 4300
2)FEB -2000 6100
3) MARCH-2002 3800
4)JAN-2004 6310
5) MAY-2006 12350..............WE ARE IN 2008,I WISH HISTORY WILL NOT REPEAT THIS YEAR...BUT this is what charts tells us...REMEMBER ONE THING i ma not here to advocate a bear market ,i am just anticipating a signifaicant CORRECTION..
3) on the sensex weekly chart i have drawn a trendline which has given support to major correction 2004 onwards..its value this week is around 16500..sensex should come down and take support here..in coming months.
4) another important tool that we use is fibonacci no.s ,cant go into details of it now,,but one major fibonacci no. is 89..and week ending 25-feb -2008 is 89 th week from 16-06-06 the week in which sensex made a significant low..AND TOOK -OFF..its an important week where a major event is expected.
so ,i amm EXPECTING a major top,,it may happen ,,,it may not...we will have tobe prepared for this..i am also giving u a chart of bse-auto..where one can see how a sideways market can be...so nothing to worry for the LONG RUN, but from now-onwards every entry should be with tight stop -losses.
one more important point to note ,that,a market top does not happen on a single day..for indices it may have a top on a particular day...but for the broader market a top usually phases -out..group wise ...sector wise..over a period..with this thought ..my argument is that the process of topping out may ACTUALLY have already begun..cement sector have already been down quite a beat..auto sector too may have made a top..even bse -health care index also have formed a weekly bearish pattern..ALL IN ALL CAUTION IS THE KEY WORD......wishing all of you a happy earning experience with my charting skills..which is a gift of the great god..........................................................................................................
bhavesh naik..12-01-01.
cell::9925673239.

IMPORTANT NOTE: i am having a very very sophisticated software,and i have over the years developed such a system of analysis that,if there is no bigger correction .(.as i expect..).happens at all,than i will be surely giving all of you buying calls as usaual,,i will surely wait for the TECHNICAL EVIDENCE..that the anticipated correction is ON.....