correction

DEAR FRIENDS......, I have been giving technical calls for the matkets to you,some of you are new clients, and some of you are with me since 2005,i am writing this and presenting all of you with charts of sensex and some scripts ,to enable all of you tobe very much on the safe side, for all the periods in the market.let"s discuss something about charts and the markets....first. aceept one thing that the market (as a whole) ,is like a living entity,,no one ,,remember no one can say anything about it ..with 100% accuracy,as it behaves in its own way..at its own speed....second...no operator ,no fii, no other institution..can affect the market for TOO long,some of them can trigger some movement,or can have some impact for few days but no t for very vey long periods....THIRD. there are thousands of harshad mehtas or ketan parekhs..in todays indian market.....what does all these mean???? ...it means that,,technical analysis is the only answer for really really profitable trading...coz.it can find out where an operator is getting active..or it can find where some institutions or fiis are buying or selling..and it can give u PRECISE ENTRY AND EXIT POINTS...my experience with almost all my clients and all the traders in general is that they do not have coreect entry---exit points.,,since india is a great growth story and we are in a great bull-run ,the traders who enters at a high price have been able to survive,even after loosing 10-15 % off their buying price coz..UNTILL NOW even after crashing 1000-1500 points markets have bounced back and the than higher buying price have again been reached...but ..as i am presenting bse-sensex chart with this article...one can see in the chart that there have been crashes after which sensex have picked up nicely ,,for a new highs...but u can see in the charts of bse-auto,,bse-it,,and bse- cement are in bear phase from now ..or ATLEAST. in a corrective phase..which to me suggests that the whole market may enter into a sideways phase for 6-12 months,after.. around budget time...will talk during our discussion ..why???..later.but my point to all of u is ...if sensex crashes 2000-3000 points from say 22000 levels ..AND DOES NOT RECOVER FASTER AS IT USED TO DO..what wiil be about u???..especially if you will have entered at a higher level ..and without stoplosses???
remember one thing that i am not bearish on the indian markets,but we have suddenly reached at such a height that nobody...except on person who is a master in neo-wave analysis,who predicted 20k+ for sensex way- back in 1998,his name is vivek patil.i do follow the wave theory too,so this level of sensex is no more surprise for me..AND I DO BELIEVE THAT WE ARE BOUND TO REACH NEWER HIGHS,,,EVEN 50000 .!!!!!..YES 50000!!! FOR SENSEX IS ALSO POSSIBE, but it will take long period to reach upto that height,,,but my purpose to warn all of you now is that..in my opinion our market is ripe for a deeper correction now than ever before..point- wise it could well be of around 3000-4000 points ,but my worry is the TIME it will take to correct ,it will be a SIDEWAYS correction,during which we will not be able to see the buying price..if bot at higher levels..for 6-9 months or even much longer...WHY AM I SAYING THIS?,TAKE A LOOK AT SOME FUNDAMENTAL REASONS,1)national election due next year..2)US economy seems to be in some serious trouble...GOOD FOR INDIA IN A LONG RUN....BUT for the short to intermediate term..it will surely have impact on our fundamentals..3) do not forget the partial unwinding of P-NOTES,it has still got around an year...but who will wait untill the last date?? 4)in the stock -market every participent must remember one important quote...HISTORY REPEATS IT SELF..remember what happened when a mega issue of reliance petro,got listed ,,the whole market went down heavily from the listing day,,,this time around its time of another reliance issue ,,which will be getting listed around end -jan- 08 5) budget period is always a crucial period this year it will be a budget which will give something more to the COMMON-MAN AND THE FARMER and not to the business-man...... following are some of the technical reasons..
1)in our subject there are number of tools that we use to analyze the TREND of the market ,one is 200 day moving average..its an average calulated every-day ..by taking last 200 days closing price,,its believed tobe a good tool to decide MAJOR TREND,if the index remains above it the trend is BULLISH ,while below the average the trend is bearish..200 day m.a. gives a good support whenever the market corrects,i am giving you the examples of how it has worked in the past few years ,after sensex entered a MAJOR BULL-RUN ,in 2003....i am giving u dates and the levels of sensex and the average...on the chart of sensex 200 day m.a. is plotted ,where u can see how it has supported sensex in the past,................DATE 200 DAY M.A. SENSEX
1) 04-04-03 3165 3130
2) 13-05-04 5174 5131
3) 29-04-05 5990 6154
4) 24-07-06 10022 9875
5) 16-03-07 12367 12316
6) 21-08-07 13983 13941
ALL of you can very clearly see these figures and can compare them with the sensex chart...look how every year atleast once sensex has corrected and got supported at 200 day m.a. my perception is that correction in sensex will start around jan -feb 2008 as on last friday on 11-01-08 the 200 day m.a. value was 16343 and sensex closing was 20827.. the correction which may last for few months and during next june-july(this is pure guessing..i.e. june -july) sensex will be supported by 200 day m.a.it will be for the first time in 2008 ,sensex will try to find support at 200 day m.a. ,
2) AS I MENTIONED EARLIER, HISTORY REPEATS IT SELF...our sensex has historically topped every 2 year
1) APRIL -98 4300
2)FEB -2000 6100
3) MARCH-2002 3800
4)JAN-2004 6310
5) MAY-2006 12350..............WE ARE IN 2008,I WISH HISTORY WILL NOT REPEAT THIS YEAR...BUT this is what charts tells us...REMEMBER ONE THING i ma not here to advocate a bear market ,i am just anticipating a signifaicant CORRECTION..
3) on the sensex weekly chart i have drawn a trendline which has given support to major correction 2004 onwards..its value this week is around 16500..sensex should come down and take support here..in coming months.
4) another important tool that we use is fibonacci no.s ,cant go into details of it now,,but one major fibonacci no. is 89..and week ending 25-feb -2008 is 89 th week from 16-06-06 the week in which sensex made a significant low..AND TOOK -OFF..its an important week where a major event is expected.
so ,i amm EXPECTING a major top,,it may happen ,,,it may not...we will have tobe prepared for this..i am also giving u a chart of bse-auto..where one can see how a sideways market can be...so nothing to worry for the LONG RUN, but from now-onwards every entry should be with tight stop -losses.
one more important point to note ,that,a market top does not happen on a single day..for indices it may have a top on a particular day...but for the broader market a top usually phases -out..group wise ...sector wise..over a period..with this thought ..my argument is that the process of topping out may ACTUALLY have already begun..cement sector have already been down quite a beat..auto sector too may have made a top..even bse -health care index also have formed a weekly bearish pattern..ALL IN ALL CAUTION IS THE KEY WORD......wishing all of you a happy earning experience with my charting skills..which is a gift of the great god..........................................................................................................
bhavesh naik..12-01-01.
cell::9925673239.

IMPORTANT NOTE: i am having a very very sophisticated software,and i have over the years developed such a system of analysis that,if there is no bigger correction .(.as i expect..).happens at all,than i will be surely giving all of you buying calls as usaual,,i will surely wait for the TECHNICAL EVIDENCE..that the anticipated correction is ON.....