WILL THE INVERTED H&S PATTERN WORK ??

I suggested in my last post...that theres an inverted h&s developing...with its neckline around 4915.....one important high at 4915...so a strong move 4915 and a close above 4925..can give 100-125 nifty points.

my system hs given a buy call as on eod, yesterday...but i would rely upon intraday charts and the close.

how will be the budget ?

A few days ahead of a major financial event, directly affecting the indian economy,,market tries to say something...but it is difficult to clearly predict very short term move.

There are little doubts about the medium term BEARISH probabilities,,even lesser doubts about long term BULLISHNESS...AFTER 1-3 years of consolidation in the higher range.

but, what will happen, post budget ?....there is a bullish inverted HEAD&SHOULDER pattern on daily charts of nifty---sensex .with fast stochastics in oversold zone on weekly charts, suggests, short term bullishness............if .if .if...nifty closes above 4925---4955 on any day pre-post budget.

BUT ,a close below 4777---4737..will change the scenerio drastically in favour of bears.

a FAILURE of completion of bulllish hns pattern,,can have very very severe bearish implications, post budget.

so watch those levels on a closing basis very carefully.

A CLOSE ABOVE 4955,,VERY VERY CRUCIAL

THIS is what i wrote here on 9 th feb-10......................

""traders are buying on HOPE now,,as they were selling in the same HOPE ,when the markets were going up,,,all must try and understand that..any rally upto 4950..will be a corrective one and only to sell..with an sl of a close above 4955.
it was a huge rally from october-08 and march-09 lows...its a huge correction on the downside unfolding slowly.
in 2008 it was usa,,this time around its europe.so take care in longs,,especially overnight longs.
for investors its simply time to stay in cash.""

with a very good trading system that i have,,as nifty crossed 4826 on 16th..i gave plenty of buy calls,,,including a buy on nifty / 4900 call / icici / hdfc / hdil / axis bank ...all were significantly profitable intraday--next day morning...but as on thursday..nifty could not cross 4917..i advised tp exit all longs if any.....

as explained here on 9th..4950 was the most important level for me and nifty high was 4926.

as per my weekly analysis..after a weak hammer like pattern last week...indices could not produce a reversal pattern on weekly charts.

this indicates that we are on to test 4665---4612--4536..in the coming week.

for this we need a sustained move below 4777.

reality was the weakest sector,,clearly suggested here a few weeks ago...the chart says it all.

monday will decide very short term trend

nifty has to move in either direction from monday. it cant remain in such a small range any longer.

if it decides to move on the upside ,,i presume it will be only a RANGE EXPANSION for the short term...than the broad range could be 4650--5015..but if nifty cant move up than another test of 4665 or even 4536 is sure in the coming week.

i wrote here a few days back..that if nifty has to move up..it has to do it in a few days..after that there was one big down day and another gapped--up up day.so i feel monday will decide the very short term trend.my resistance levels were 4832---4842 are still intact.

if the short term up move from 4665 was only a gap filling activity and if we start falling again,,it will have severe bearish implication in short term...before a meaning full upside correction(of the fall from 5310)..starts.....i some how feel that we are yet to see one severe down day.

interesting observation is that..on wednesday we have seen selling pressure twice intraday from around 4820--to---4740..but since thursday was gap-up day..there wasnt actual buying force on that upday.

my stoploss for this presumed down day...will be a strong up move on monday..and a close above 4855.

i am here posting a few hourly charts..where in trend decisive structures are presented in some leading stocks.

for nifty..last few days hourly chart suggests a bearish rising wedge..if broken we may see a break of 4665...where as on nifty 4900 call..there is a rectangle on hourly charts...which can be highly bullish if broken out.

so, two things are clear...for stocks wait for break of patterns and for nifty mondays close could be a decider of the short term trend.

for a little longer term trend...i think we are getting more confirmation about a significant top already in place. i am posting charts of few leaders with 21 ema on weekly charts...in most of the major stocks....its a confirmation that we will see a lower top formation,,whenever a meaning full correction on upside starts.

nifty

distribution before a crash

i would let the gap at 4832---one fibonacci resistant at 4842..one imprtant high at 4894 are crucial levels.

we must let nifty close above these levels,for a real strong up move.

also this should happen within 3-4 days only,,if not..we are in danger of a another big crash.

traders are buying on HOPE now,,as they were selling in the same HOPE ,when the markets were going up,,,all must try and understand that..any rally upto 4950..will be a corrective one and only to sell..with an sl of a close above 4955.
it was a huge rally from october-08 and march-09 lows...its a huge correction on the downside unfolding slowly.
in 2008 it was usa,,this time around its europe.so take care in longs,,especially overnight longs.
for investors its simply time to stay in cash.
even highly volatile stocks like jsw steel is developing a top h&s pattern so,,unless 4950 is taken out...no overnight longs

4536 very crucial

I had very very clearly warned every reader about, bearish probabilities and its severe implications on an investors portfolio,,advised tobe in cash..on 12th jan 2010.

readers must be realising importance of such an early warning....looking at dow plunging below 10000 mark yesterday night.

users of my services are getting immense benefit of intraday developments,,we are very clearly short from 4868 in nifty and positional short in stocks like acc,,tata motors,century text,axis,icici ,dlf, idfc,punj ,pnb etc....... www.twist4nifty.com

importance of technicals is huge but, even with best ta..a trader must learn, to ACT.

because..if a trader / investor applies his / her own mind, neglecting a ta's views..than no one can help.

i hope my readers are way way ahead of others.

my trading system

crucial few days seems to be a distribution phase

LIST OF STOCKS ON WHICH MY TRADING SYSTEM HAS GIVEN SELL CALLS ,,,ON LAST 2-3 DAYS ,INCLUDING TODAY......

Ticker Trade Date Close

AARTIDRUGS Short 04/02/2010 96.3500

ABAN Short 04/02/2010 1177.2500

ABIRLANUVO Short 04/02/2010 853.4000

ACE Short 04/02/2010 39.1000

ADHUNIK Short 04/02/2010 113.2500

ADORWELD Short 04/02/2010 183.5000

AEGISCHEM Short 04/02/2010 195.3000

AIAENG Short 04/02/2010 341.3500

AJMERA Short 04/02/2010 189.4000

ALFALAVAL Short 04/02/2010 1195.4500

ALKALI Short 04/02/2010 115.3000

ALLCARGO Short 04/02/2010 188.3000

ALPA Short 04/02/2010 13.7500

ALPSINDUS Short 04/02/2010 12.2500

AMAR Short 04/02/2010 54.9500

AMARAJABAT Short 04/02/2010 156.5000

AMBUJACEM Short 04/02/2010 100.7000

AMDIND Short 04/02/2010 27.2000

ANGAUTO Short 04/02/2010 44.7500

ANIKINDS Short 04/02/2010 65.7000

ANSALINFRA Short 04/02/2010 70.7500

ARL Short 04/02/2010 1.9500

ASHOKLEY Short 04/02/2010 52.5000

AUTOIND Short 04/02/2010 114.5000

AVENTIS Short 04/02/2010 1601.8000

BALAJITELE Short 04/02/2010 54.6500

BALLARPUR Short 04/02/2010 25.8500

BANARISUG Short 04/02/2010 1173.9000

BANCOINDIA Short 04/02/2010 83.9500

BANK Nifty Short 04/02/2010 8471.0996

BANKRAJAS Short 04/02/2010 64.5500

BASF Short 04/02/2010 390.9500

BATAINDIA Short 04/02/2010 187.1000

BBL Short 04/02/2010 956.3000

BEML Short 04/02/2010 1090.3000

BFUTILITIE Short 04/02/2010 1093.5500

BGRENERGY Short 04/02/2010 480.5000

BHARATGEAR Short 04/02/2010 52.1500

BIOCON Short 04/02/2010 266.2000

BIRLACOT Short 04/02/2010 1.2500

BIRLAPOWER Short 04/02/2010 3.3000

BLBLIMITED Short 04/02/2010 16.0500

BLUESTINFO Short 04/02/2010 107.2500

BPL Short 04/02/2010 33.5000

BRITANNIA Short 04/02/2010 1595.9000

BROADCAST Short 04/02/2010 21.3000

BURNPUR Short 04/02/2010 13.0500

BVCL Short 04/02/2010 28.2000

CALSOFT Short 04/02/2010 46.2000

CAMBRIDGE Short 04/02/2010 83.5000

CEATLTD Short 04/02/2010 135.8000

CENTENKA Short 04/02/2010 262.8500

CHOLADBS Short 04/02/2010 62.9500

CLASSIC Short 04/02/2010 21.5500

CLUTCHAUTO Short 04/02/2010 61.8500

CNX 100 Short 04/02/2010 4797.8501

CNX IT Short 04/02/2010 5565.9502

CNX Midcap Short 04/02/2010 7237.1499

CNX Nifty Junior Short 04/02/2010 10059.3496

CREATIVEYE Short 04/02/2010 7.7500

CTE Short 04/02/2010 24.4500

CYBERTECH Short 04/02/2010 17.6500

DATAMATICS Short 04/02/2010 36.8000

DCB Short 04/02/2010 34.8500

DCHL Short 04/02/2010 149.6000

DCMSRMCONS Short 04/02/2010 56.9500

DEEPAKFERT Short 04/02/2010 107.6500

DELTACORP Short 04/02/2010 40.6000

DENABANK Short 04/02/2010 78.0500

DICIND Short 04/02/2010 195.5500

DLINKINDIA Short 04/02/2010 28.9500

EDUCOMP Short 04/02/2010 685.7500

ELECTCAST Short 04/02/2010 46.6000

EMCO Short 04/02/2010 95.3000

ENTEGRA Short 04/02/2010 40.0500

ERAINFRA Short 04/02/2010 202.0500

ESSAROIL Short 04/02/2010 138.8500

ESSARSHIP Short 04/02/2010 72.8500

ETC Short 04/02/2010 208.2000

EVERESTIND Short 04/02/2010 154.8000

EVINIX Short 04/02/2010 4.2000

EXIDEIND Short 04/02/2010 112.8500

FAGBEARING Short 04/02/2010 566.5000

FEDDERLOYD Short 04/02/2010 79.4500

FEDERALBNK Short 04/02/2010 253.6000

FIEMIND Short 04/02/2010 99.5500

FKONCO Short 04/02/2010 112.6000

FMGOETZE Short 04/02/2010 154.6500

FSL Short 04/02/2010 31.0500

GABRIEL Short 04/02/2010 35.0000

GARWOFFS Short 04/02/2010 199.9000

GATI Short 04/02/2010 56.0500

GDL Short 04/02/2010 130.0000

GEOMETRIC Short 04/02/2010 60.6000

GHCL Short 04/02/2010 45.7000

GIPCL Short 04/02/2010 107.1000

GITANJALI Short 04/02/2010 117.0500

GLENMARK Short 04/02/2010 257.7500

GMBREW Short 04/02/2010 78.0000

GMDCLTD Short 04/02/2010 146.4500

GODFRYPHLP Short 04/02/2010 1924.4500

GODREJPROP Short 04/02/2010 478.5000

GPIL Short 04/02/2010 216.6000

GRASIM Short 04/02/2010 2635.1499

GSPL Short 04/02/2010 90.7000

GSSAMERICA Short 04/02/2010 304.3500

GTOFFSHORE Short 04/02/2010 415.4500

GUFICBIO Short 04/02/2010 7.3500

GUJAPOLLO Short 04/02/2010 195.4500

GUJSIDHCEM Short 04/02/2010 16.1500

GULFOILCOR Short 04/02/2010 92.7500

GWALCHEM Short 04/02/2010 92.5000

HARRMALAYA Short 04/02/2010 117.8500

HCC Short 04/02/2010 132.1500

HCIL Short 04/02/2010 399.9000

HCLTECH Short 04/02/2010 337.1500

HDFCBANK Short 04/02/2010 1616.7500

HDIL Short 04/02/2010 325.9500

HELIOSMATH Short 04/02/2010 48.8000

HERCULES Short 04/02/2010 220.3500

HEROHONDA Short 04/02/2010 1600.4500

HGSL Short 04/02/2010 455.9000

HINDALCO Short 04/02/2010 146.1500

IBPOW Short 04/02/2010 32.5000

IBSEC Short 04/02/2010 30.6500

IDBI Short 04/02/2010 117.2500

IFBAGRO Short 04/02/2010 83.6500

IFCI Short 04/02/2010 49.6500

INDIACEM Short 04/02/2010 116.8000

INDIANCARD Short 04/02/2010 166.3500

INDOWIND Short 04/02/2010 47.1500

INDRAMEDCO Short 04/02/2010 43.4500

INDSWFTLTD Short 04/02/2010 32.0000

INGERRAND Short 04/02/2010 337.5500

INGVYSYABK Short 04/02/2010 248.7500

INSECTICID Short 04/02/2010 91.9000

ISMTLTD Short 04/02/2010 54.0000

ISPATIND Short 04/02/2010 19.5000

IVRCLINFRA Short 04/02/2010 316.8500

JAYBARMARU Short 04/02/2010 68.4500

JAYNECOIND Short 04/02/2010 29.9000

JINDALSWHL Short 04/02/2010 1766.2000

JKPAPER Short 04/02/2010 46.7500

JMCPROJECT Short 04/02/2010 158.5500

JSWSTEEL Short 04/02/2010 1022.9500

JUBILANT Short 04/02/2010 326.4500

JYOTISTRUC Short 04/02/2010 165.4000

KCP Short 04/02/2010 300.7000

KEI Short 04/02/2010 35.1500

KOHINOOR Short 04/02/2010 56.1000

KPIT Short 04/02/2010 113.2000

KSBPUMPS Short 04/02/2010 408.2000

KSOILS Short 04/02/2010 72.2500

LAKPRE Short 04/02/2010 41.8500

LGBROS Short 04/02/2010 23.3000

LICHSGFIN Short 04/02/2010 768.8000

LLOYDELENG Short 04/02/2010 58.2000

LML Short 04/02/2010 10.4500

LOKESHMACH Short 04/02/2010 48.0500

M&M Short 04/02/2010 1017.0000

MADHUCON Short 04/02/2010 162.3000

MADRASCEM Short 04/02/2010 108.3500

MAGNUM Short 04/02/2010 9.1000

MANALIPETC Short 04/02/2010 11.1000

MANGLMCEM Short 04/02/2010 155.1500

MANUGRAPH Short 04/02/2010 54.4000

MAYTASINFR Short 04/02/2010 163.4000

MBECL Short 04/02/2010 238.5000

MERCK Short 04/02/2010 591.9000

MHRIL Short 04/02/2010 420.2500

MICROTECH Short 04/02/2010 183.6500

MID-DAY Short 04/02/2010 22.3000

MIRCELECTR Short 04/02/2010 16.9000

MIRZAINT Short 04/02/2010 15.5000

MOSERBAER Short 04/02/2010 76.5000

MOTILALOFS Short 04/02/2010 168.8500

MPSLTD Short 04/02/2010 60.2000

MRPL Short 04/02/2010 78.4000

MUKANDLTD Short 04/02/2010 58.4000

MUNJALSHOW Short 04/02/2010 49.2500

MYSOREBANK Short 04/02/2010 696.0000

NAGARFERT Short 04/02/2010 34.1500

NAGREEKEXP Short 04/02/2010 21.2000

NECLIFE Short 04/02/2010 34.7000

NEOCURE Short 04/02/2010 5.4500

NESCO Short 04/02/2010 1148.4500

NICCO Short 04/02/2010 5.9500

Nifty Midcap 50 Short 04/02/2010 2543.8000

NIITLTD Short 04/02/2010 70.0000

NILKAMAL Short 04/02/2010 236.6500

NIRMA Short 04/02/2010 194.2500

NITCO Short 04/02/2010 48.6500

NITINFIRE Short 04/02/2010 328.1000

NOIDATOLL Short 04/02/2010 36.4500

OMAXE Short 04/02/2010 95.5500

ONGC Short 04/02/2010 1139.6000

ONWARDTEC Short 04/02/2010 21.1000

ORIENTPPR Short 04/02/2010 46.3500

PAGEIND Short 04/02/2010 827.8500

PARSVNATH Short 04/02/2010 124.9500

PATINTLOG Short 04/02/2010 34.7000

PATNI Short 04/02/2010 459.7000

PATSPINLTD Short 04/02/2010 10.0500

PEARLPOLY Short 04/02/2010 12.4500

PITTILAM Short 04/02/2010 35.7000

PNBGILTS Short 04/02/2010 27.7000

PNC Short 04/02/2010 31.4500

POCHIRAJU Short 04/02/2010 21.1500

POLARIS Short 04/02/2010 160.3500

PPAP Short 04/02/2010 76.0500

PRATIBHA Short 04/02/2010 326.3500

PRECWIRE Short 04/02/2010 81.8000

PREMIER Short 04/02/2010 150.0000

PRETAILDVR Short 04/02/2010 244.2500

PRIMESECU Short 04/02/2010 36.3500

PROVOGUE Short 04/02/2010 58.4500

PSL Short 04/02/2010 150.6000

PSTL Short 04/02/2010 18.6500

PUNJLLOYD Short 04/02/2010 182.5500

RADICO Short 04/02/2010 113.4500

RAINCOM Short 04/02/2010 205.5000

RAJOIL Short 04/02/2010 69.3500

RAJTV Short 04/02/2010 57.5000

RAMCOSYS Short 04/02/2010 96.9000

RAMSARUP Short 04/02/2010 76.5500

RBL Short 04/02/2010 110.0000

RELINFRA Short 04/02/2010 1037.1000

RELMEDIA Short 04/02/2010 230.9500

RNRL Short 04/02/2010 64.4500

RPGCABLES Short 04/02/2010 27.1500

RSWM Short 04/02/2010 100.1000

RSYSTEMS Short 04/02/2010 95.4500

RUCHISOYA Short 04/02/2010 86.8500

S&P CNX 500 Short 04/02/2010 4139.7002

S&P CNX Defty Short 04/02/2010 3631.5000

S&P CNX Nifty Short 04/02/2010 4845.3501

SABTN Short 04/02/2010 30.0500

SAGCEM Short 04/02/2010 176.2000

SALSTEEL Short 04/02/2010 12.5500

SAMTEL Short 04/02/2010 20.0000

SANGHIIND Short 04/02/2010 30.2500

SANGHVIMOV Short 04/02/2010 223.2000

SARDAEN Short 04/02/2010 214.3000

SAREGAMA Short 04/02/2010 70.2000

SELAN Short 04/02/2010 395.1000

SELMCL Short 04/02/2010 91.2500

SESAGOA Short 04/02/2010 360.4500

SHANTIGEAR Short 04/02/2010 39.9500

SHOPERSTOP Short 04/02/2010 334.7500

SHREECEM Short 04/02/2010 1951.2500

SHREYANIND Short 04/02/2010 25.2500

SIL Short 04/02/2010 24.1500

SILINV Short 04/02/2010 95.0000

SIMPLEX Short 04/02/2010 220.3500

SITASHREE Short 04/02/2010 9.3000

SMSPHARMA Short 04/02/2010 159.2000

SRGINFOTEC Short 04/02/2010 0.9000

STOREONE Short 04/02/2010 35.6000

SUNILHITEC Short 04/02/2010 210.5500

SUPREMEINF Short 04/02/2010 179.1500

SURAJDIAMN Short 04/02/2010 47.8500

SWARAJENG Short 04/02/2010 307.3000

SYNDIBANK Short 04/02/2010 83.2000

TAINWALCHM Short 04/02/2010 17.2000

TAKE Short 04/02/2010 31.0500

TATACHEM Short 04/02/2010 298.3000

TATACOFFEE Short 04/02/2010 354.2500

TATAELXSI Short 04/02/2010 273.0500

TATAMETALI Short 04/02/2010 138.5500

TATASPONGE Short 04/02/2010 355.5500

TATASTEEL Short 04/02/2010 577.7000

TATATEA Short 04/02/2010 939.0500

TECHNOELEC Short 04/02/2010 215.4000

TEXMACOLTD Short 04/02/2010 145.9500

TINPLATE Short 04/02/2010 80.1500

TNPETRO Short 04/02/2010 20.0000

TODAYS Short 04/02/2010 23.6500

TORNTPOWER Short 04/02/2010 295.3500

TRICOM Short 04/02/2010 16.7500

TRIL Short 04/02/2010 401.1500

TTKPRESTIG Short 04/02/2010 434.4500

TV-18 Short 04/02/2010 76.2000

UBENGG Short 04/02/2010 125.8500

UBHOLDINGS Short 04/02/2010 255.2500

UFLEX Short 04/02/2010 98.4500

USHAMART Short 04/02/2010 81.6000

UTVSOF Short 04/02/2010 502.2000

VALUEIND Short 04/02/2010 20.1500

VENUSREM Short 04/02/2010 236.9000

VINDHYATEL Short 04/02/2010 198.8000

VISAKAIND Short 04/02/2010 127.3500

VOLTAS Short 04/02/2010 159.6000

WEBELSOLAR Short 04/02/2010 138.2500

WELGUJ Short 04/02/2010 258.8000

WELSPUNIND Short 04/02/2010 77.4000

WILLAMAGOR Short 04/02/2010 61.4000

WOCKPHARMA Short 04/02/2010 166.7000

WWIL Short 04/02/2010 18.2000

ZENSARTECH Short 04/02/2010 296.5500

ZODJRDMKJ Short 04/02/2010 24.3500

ZYLOG Short 04/02/2010 330.5500