WHAT NOW ???

For almost the whole month of November after DIWALI I have tried our best to protect hard earned money of our investor/traders by giving high alert about the incoming crash from various platforms viz. Our Daily Technical view/Daily conference call/Weekly Technical view and our chat room messages on the short side and we had given ultimate Target for NIFTY on the downside of around 5700 and for SENSEX of on the downside were around 19000 which was in fact a clear Technical approach which was duly achieved on Friday and was an ultimate guidance for all to remain on safer side.

Such pinpoint accuracy was not achievable through normal Technical tools like INDICATORS OR SIMPLE AVERAGES OR TRENDLINES.We used some truly innovative approach to predict such a major Top, we used Mimicking concept when we compared FTSE chart with SENSEX, we used Time Analysis when we projected first Week of November 2010 as crucial time from the Fibonacci Numbers point of view, we projected a high of SENSEX as to be 21200 as we observed that the yearlong channel high and low both are Fibonacci support levels from 21200 and SENSEX made a high of 21108 on 5^th of November 2010 then we used a new and almost unknown CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN called a DYNAMITE but our approach was different from most other technical analysts when we said that now a days markets does not respect a single candlestick reversal pattern when a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN appeared on NIFTY and SENSEX all these are not normal Technical tools to predict turning points in markets at various times we observed weakness in different sector indices and we immediately presented it through charts.

We hope we have served our investors /traders with best of our ability and we assure that we will be consistent in our performance in identifying turning points in our markets.

SENSEX/NIFTY VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 29^TH NOVEMBER

It has been third week in a row in which SENSEX continued its downward journey there are two important things which will be important this week first is that as shown on Daily chart SENSEX  and NIFTY are moving in a parallel channel generally such channeled move takes support at different support levels and gives reasonable correction importantly for SENSEX it is now at an important support area which is the higher end of another year long upwards channel but on the other hand only two days left for the month to end and we are now witnessing CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS ON MONTHLY CHARTS not only for SENSEX but on almost all sector indices so if at the end of the Month these patterns do complete then its implication can be severe although as happened on weekly charts market may try and develop two CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS even on Monthly chart to bring a larger crash afterwards another noticeable thing is the oversold condition of Momentum Indicators on weekly charts if they support  SENSEX and NIFTY and if there is a strong breakout of channel then expect a good upside rally in coming weeks.

WHAT LEVELS TO WATH FOR SENSEX/NIFTY FOR ANY MEANINGFUL UPSIDE

If we get a breakout of the downward channel on NIFTY then watch 5970 close on Daily chart for SENSEX the level is 19770 and if the rise is stronger then expectation of normal market player then watch a close above 6013 for NIFTY and 19930 for SENSEX all short term bearishness will get evaporated if NIFTY closes any Week above 6013 and SENSEX above 19930 but if the rise remains weak below 5970 around then the fresh downward journey will start and NIFTY will have Target around 5595-5565 for SENSEX the lower Target comes around 18530 these Targets are open especially because of a strong sell cross over seen on    Weekly MACD

IMPORTANCE OF 5970 FOR NIFTY

In normal Technical terms a level gains importance when it gives support more than once in case of NIFTY 5963 was a low on 30^th September,5966 was a low on 20^th October,5968 was a low on 29^th October and finally 5970 was a low on 16^th November on all previous occasions NIFTY got strong bounce from around 5970 but on 19^th November 5970 was decisively broken on closing basis so now this level becomes an important Resistance level and if we presume that NIFTY will come to around 5595 then 5970 becomes 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire fall from 6350 to 5595 so if 5970 cannot be regained in any upside rally then 5565/5595 becomes almost an inevitable Target remember that a close above 5970 and then a weekly close above 6013 will negate all downside calculations for the short term.

A MAJOR TOP

I SAID HERE FOR THE BENEFIT OF ALL THESE A FEW DAYS BACK WHEN THERE WERE NO SIGNS OF ANY GREAT FALL..........

Thursday, November 11, 2010

all signs of a major top

investors are advised to be in cash by more than 70%, a weekly close below 5937 will most probably end the whole rally.

A PULLBACK RALLY POSSIBLE

Because of some strong technical selling signals like roc going below zero 21/34 daily ema sell cross and macd sell signal on weekly charts all these combined with an expanding price structure break down on daily charts and candlestick reversal patterns on weekly charts have played havoc among investors or traders on the upside this downside rally can easily be a first leg of a larger correction but here on we expect a halt or an upside corrective from sensex levels around 19151/19065/18948 for so watch some buying coming in around these levels in a day or two.



Nifty : support : 5746-5723 resistance 5876-5907
For nifty also on Tuesday it made a hammer but lack of following failed the pattern and broke the earlier lows so today or on Monday we would expect nifty to reach our medium target which are around 5700 precisely there are two important support levels for nifty one is 5746 the other is 5723 but if some panic continues then we expect nifty to make one panic low at 5687 so watch these levels for two days but while mentioning these supports we clarify that we need nifty to close above 8/13 day ema for 2-3 days for any sustained up move so till that happens any rise will be better to sold off.


NIFTY HAS MOVED DOWN IN  A CHANNELED MOVE SUCH MOVES GENERALLY DO NOT VIOLATE MAJOR SUPPORTS.

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AN ABSOLUTE MIRACLE ON 5 MINUTE CHART

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VIEW THESE CHARTS POSTED HERE ON 15TH NOVEMBER AND READ MY COMMENTS ON THEM AND SEE THE RESULT AS ON TODAY...

PURE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS FOR TRADERS.

A MIRACLE ON thirty MINUTE CHARTS

i had clearly written from the top that nifty has strong supports at 5815/5841 area today in south-north korean panic sell off nifty made a low of 5821 and did see a strong bounce,

how valid or sustainable will be the bounce ? time will say and following my system has all the answers,see how my system performed on nifty 30 min chart.....


my clients shorted nifty today at 5955 and covered near supports around 5830.

to get such profitable calls as sms
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nifty targets reached

as mentioned earlier, given clear targets to clients for nifty as 5841--5815 will come...reached today in south corean panic

A PULLBACK RALLY POSSIBLE

SENSEX : in our morning technical view yesterday we mentioned clearly that a bounce back is expected which happened through the day sensex climbed up 372 points responding to the extreme oversold condition of momentum indicators and supports at near 89 day ema we expect the recovery can continue until sensex does not breach todays low which is 19641 the 13-21 day ema had given a sell cross and the whole band of 13-21-34 day ema is placed in between 20148-20232 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall is at 20296 so in our view these sensex levels are very crucial resistance levels and are difficult to get crossed with ease so watch any weakness below 20300 and if that weakness converts in to an daily downward reversal candle pattern we will have to be very cautious in buying.

We presume any weak rise should be only to exit longs barring few intraday buying trades as per our intraday technicals and in a few days we will have to watch short term indicators reaching higher levels also.

Nifty : resistance  6047  /6104   supports :5905 /5863 /5841

Yesterdays move in nifty looks a little bit stronger looking at the expanding structure drawn on nifty chart the expanding structure was clearly broken on closing basis but in a single day nifty has again entered in to the structure.

Nifty has strong supports at 5841/5815 and resistance at 6047/6104 so we do expect nifty to remain in this zone for some time and a decisive close especially a decisive weekly close beyond this zone can bring another big move on either side in the near future.

follow me n get loss lost

follow me n get loss lost..b j naik

reason ??? two trade calls as sms in icici bank today...will post details later

A PULLBACK RALLY POSSIBLE

SENSEX

For this week SENSEX has strong supports at 19454 and at around 18900 just below 19000 there are two supports one is a Trend line which is the upper end of the year long channel SENSEX did break out of this channel in early September and there is a GAP on weekly chart around the same level we strongly feel that this support should work this week although it will be very interesting to see how strong the supposed bounce back will be and any weaker rise in coming one/two weeks should only be used to exit longs as and when such rallies starts weakening again.

SENSEX has one more support at 19431 which is its 89 day EMA watch closely if SENSEX is able to hold this EMA on closing basis.

On the other hand on SENSEX weekly chart its MACD is on the verge of a sell crossover so the support SENSEX takes this week should be such strong that MACD can not generate sell signal because MACD gives crossover a little late but generally they are very valid signals so watch these few supports and MACD in this coming week.

NIFTY

Supports at two Trend lines other support levels are 5838/5829 should work this week and expect at least a halt to the massive fall

As shown on daily NIFTY chart we have its 89 Day EMA and 50% retracement level which is also 5841 so this week we expect some bounce back although again repeat our more than one old view that November 2010 can see a major top and 21108 could be it so we will be very careful in following the up move that we may have this week and we will watch the strength and weakness of the supposed rally from supports shown here

 Also we would like to mention here that we are tracking SENSEX and NIFTY much more closely but when there are some major turning points in main indices at times the sector indices also play very very important role in giving clues well in advance in our technical view in past few weeks we did mention weakness in other sectors like BSE-METAL and BSE-REALITY here are updated charts of these indices

We have presented two sector charts in this week Technical view one is BSE-PSU and the other is BSE POWER.

PSU index almost touched its high of January 2010 but POWER index just could not even cross the all important 61.8% Fibonacci Resistance level of the entire 2008-2009 crash as we all know Government Of India relied heavily on the PSU disinvestment policy to meet the BUDGETARY DEFICITS and emphasizing the importance of very crucial infrastructure facility called power it had drawn bigger projections to curtail the power shortage in the country and to meet the growing demand of power from the robust industry but looking at the weakness in these two specific indices we feel some drastic damage is coming in the future regarding government policies for these two sectors as we firmly believe that Charts do foretell the future well in advance. Off course we will be first here to point out any strength in these index but at present the future looks blink and any corrective rise in these sector stocks should be used to exit longs.

A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

i had posted a clear negative view on reliance on 11th november 2010

one can see how my mechanised trading system  have worked on 15 minute chart throughout the week

those who want to earn huge return trading intraday with unmatched CONSISTANCY  AND can spent money for knowledge can contact

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A MIRACLE ON FIVE MINUTE CHARTS

see this lic h fin 5 min chart    view the signal and read the sms

finally see the RESULT.

MY TRADING SYSTEM

i said this a month ago, with clear time analysis of a top near nov first week one of my logic was an observation regarding how 200 ema flirts with indices.

{{AS , it is very clear that sensex is near its jan-2008 pick, here, sensex can pick out, not being able to cross 2008 pick, OR if in coming days sensex crosses the 2008 high, than there will be buying euphoria and there will be some serious panic among BEARS,, BUT as the saying goes, markets generally tops out when the LAST bear rushes to cover his shorts,so it will be very interesting to observe markets this month.
4 : retracement as support and channel (rectangle) target :
As can be seen on sensex chart ,since October-2009 to early sept-2010, it was moving in a channel ,which can also be called as a rectangle, the move within the channel was roughly of 2000 points,sensex broken out of the channel in early sept and has moved up by 2000 points , meeting the rectangle break-out targets.
Fibo. Retracements is an all important technical tool used to find out supports /resistance levels.if we assume that looking at the present mood of the markets and money flow from the FIIS, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT we may see 21200 level of sensex in coming days.if that happens and if we calculate future fibbo retracements levels taking 21200 as the new high, one can see that the ONE YEAR LONG CHANNE L , HIGH and LOW ,BOTH becomes support levels and also the big gap (after election 2009) area becomes one important fibbo retracement support level.
So ,concluding this article ,we can presume that one important top is nearby.
Tracking the possible top and confirming it using other technical tools, will be a job ahead.}}} 11th oct 2010.

the mentioned job ahead was duly done on my blog with precision timing and even here i wrote a detailed article on monday.

HERE IS the nifty hourly chart with my trading system


and what i said about nifty a month ago.

and this is what happened in last month.

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AND AVAIL BENEFITS OF WORLDCLASS ANALYSIS AND A TRUELY POWERFUL TRADING SYSTEM

WHEN EVERY SINGLE TELEVISION /FORUMS ANALYST WAS BULLISH ON INDIAN MARKETS I  WROTE ON MY FREE BLOG THIS ::::::


WHAT i SAID EARLIER ABOUT THIS BULL RUN ?
On October 10th in a detailed article i said that the top of this massive bull run can be nearby and we compared FTSE index with SENSEX on quarterly charts and argued about a possible bigger down move is due in SENSEX.
Two other important points i discussed were these
11) first week of November will an 89TH WEEK of the entire rally started from march -2009. 89 being a fibonacci no. it will be an important juncture in doing time analysis.
2) Fibo. Retracements is an all important technical tool used to find out supports /resistance levels.if we assume that looking at the present mood of the markets and money flow from the FIIS, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT we may see 21200 level of sensex in coming days.if that happens and if we calculate future fibbo retracements levels taking 21200 as the new high, one can see that the ONE YEAR LONG CHANNE L , HIGH and LOW ,BOTH becomes support levels and also the big gap (after election 2009) area becomes one important fibbo retracement support level.
So ,concluding this article ,we can presume that one important top is nearby.

SENSEX made a high of 21108 exactly in the first week of November 2010 on 05/11/2010. And more interestingly have fallen by more than 4.5% or 1000 points in just 5 trading sessions


JUST VIEW  MY POWERFUL TRADING SYSTEM SIGNALS ON NIFTY FROM 6300 AND MATCH THOSE MECHANISED SIGNALS WITH MY OWN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS .


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A MAJOR TOP

A MAJOR TOP

I WARNED here that a major top is in place. all readers are advised to go through my work taking time and act accordingly in taking trading decisions in future.

SENSEX MOVEMENT FOR THE WEEK ENDED 12^TH NOVEMBER 2010.

OPEN :       HIGH :            LOW :             CLOSE :         PREV. CLOSE:  CHANGE :   CHANGE IN %

21042       21075.70       20108.40        20156.9       21005                 -849                    - 4.00%

TRENDS :

SHORT TERM : down

INTERMEIDIATE : up with caution (will turn down below 19840 )

LONG TERM : up

The week ended 12^th November started on a very quiet note in first 3 days the movement looked to be corrective accumulation after the big move we had seen from 5937 to 6350 around it was a massive 400+ points rally in nifty stocks like sbi and tata motors lead the rally.

But then on a detailed study of nifty futures intraday charts on 10^th of November we found a probable trend reversal pattern called A DIAMOND we mentioned about it in our 11^th November TECHNICAL VIEW and suggested clearly to trade on the breakout side.

THE DIAMOND  proved to be strong reversal pattern and the bear force initiated with that pattern on 15 minutes intraday chart got very very strong momentum on the downside and converted the whole week end candle in to a bearish engulfing candle reversal pattern in both nifty and sensex.

The selling was so relentless on 11^th and 12^th November that the gaps area which were created on nifty chart in the recent upmove which should normally work as strong supports just did not work and infact last two upside gaps now becomes exhaustion gaps  this is one clear indication that we may have seen an important top on the muhurrat day that is on 5^th November 2010.

WHICH SENSEX LEVEL CAN DECIDE TREND FOR MEDIUM TERM FUTURE  ?

A few weeks back when we presented our  SHORT TERM bearish view on markets when  NIFTY was around 6240 we had projected targets of 5924 and than 5700 one MUST understand that 5700 was possible only if 5924 was breached after our presentation NIFTY went down by more than 300 points it touched 5937 intraday and bounced back sharply after that move we recommended 6166 as short term buying trigger once it was crossed we did see a strong 200 points rally on the upside.

For the coming weeks 5961/5924 are the medium term trend decider levels for  NIFTY WE NEED 3 close below 5961/5924 and preferably a weekly close below 5924 will turn the intermediate term to down.

SENSEX point if view 19847/19770 are two levels which will decide trend for the next 3-4 weeks as shown in SENSEX chart here there is a BROADENING pattern development on daily charts, so the support line MUST be broken decisively and NOT to be recovered too soon for a larger corrective on the downside to open and as we are presenting in this detailed TECHNICAL VIEW there are enough TECHNICAL evidences that we may have seen a STRONG MAJOR TOP but market is a super power so if all these bearish indications fails to convert in to a larger correction i will be swift and quick enough to find possible upside move if any.

WHAT i SAID EARLIER ABOUT THIS BULL RUN ?

On October 10^th in a detailed article i said that the top of this massive bull run can be nearby and we compared FTSE  index with SENSEX on quarterly charts and argued about a possible bigger down move is due in SENSEX.

Two other important points i discussed were these

11)     first week of November will an 89^TH WEEK of the entire rally started  from march -2009. 89 being a fibonacci no. it will be an important juncture in doing time analysis.

2)     Fibo. Retracements is an all important  technical tool used to find out supports /resistance levels.if we assume that looking at the present mood of the markets and money flow from the FIIS, IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT we may see 21200 level of sensex in coming days.if that happens and if we  calculate future fibbo retracements levels taking 21200 as the new high, one can see that the ONE YEAR LONG CHANNE L  , HIGH  and LOW ,BOTH becomes support  levels and also the big gap (after election 2009) area becomes one important fibbo retracement support level.

So ,concluding this article ,we can presume that one important top is nearby.

SENSEX  made a high of 21108 exactly in the first week of November 2010 on 05/11/2010. And more interestingly have fallen by more than 4.5% or 1000 points in just 5 trading sessions

CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS AND OUR TYPICAL OBSERVATION AT MAJOR TURNING POINTS.

As candlestick reversal patterns are well known tools most of the technical analysts use for predicting turning points of all trends we too use them extensively in our day to day analysis of stocks and indices in the early 1990s when these patterns were introduced by steve nisson to the world it was observed that candlestick reversal patterns were very very effective in a sense that the prevailing trend was used to get reversed very quickly after a pattern gets developed.

Over the years with spread of the knowledge about various candlestick patterns their immediate effectiveness has reduced BUT our typical observation is that now after a formation of one pattern within a few periods another pattern forms and than the trend reverses.

Interestingly this has happened on weekly charts SENSEX-NIFTY.

At the end of week on 22^nd October we presented NIFTY chart and said that there is a candlestick reversal pattern on weekly charts called A DYNAMITE next week nifty went down and made a low of 5937 which was near our one support/target 5924 mentioned before we did see a massive bull rally in the dipawali week where in SENSEX hit 21108 which was also very much near to my projected target of 21200 but the week ended 12^th November markets crashed and SENSEX LOST 4.6% off the recent high and NIFTY lost nearly 4.3% thus the weeks move got converted in to another extremely bearish candlestick reversal pattern called BEARISH ENGULFING ideally the implication of this pattern is to sell on every rise with a closing base stoploss above the high of the last bearish candle which is 6336 for nifty.

A typical example of this observation is shown in this quarterly chart of state bank of india  when it made a major bottom in 2008-09.

If the bearishness started from the last week of November gathers momentum breaking some important levels and any rise that comes from oversold areas remains weak and proves corrective only than important targets for SENSEX would be 18000 around and for NIFTY 5700 around.