Monday, November 29, 2010

WHAT NOW ???

For almost the whole month of November after DIWALI I have tried our best to protect hard earned money of our investor/traders by giving high alert about the incoming crash from various platforms viz. Our Daily Technical view/Daily conference call/Weekly Technical view and our chat room messages on the short side and we had given ultimate Target for NIFTY on the downside of around 5700 and for SENSEX of on the downside were around 19000 which was in fact a clear Technical approach which was duly achieved on Friday and was an ultimate guidance for all to remain on safer side.

Such pinpoint accuracy was not achievable through normal Technical tools like INDICATORS OR SIMPLE AVERAGES OR TRENDLINES.We used some truly innovative approach to predict such a major Top, we used Mimicking concept when we compared FTSE chart with SENSEX, we used Time Analysis when we projected first Week of November 2010 as crucial time from the Fibonacci Numbers point of view, we projected a high of SENSEX as to be 21200 as we observed that the yearlong channel high and low both are Fibonacci support levels from 21200 and SENSEX made a high of 21108 on 5th of November 2010 then we used a new and almost unknown CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERN called a DYNAMITE but our approach was different from most other technical analysts when we said that now a days markets does not respect a single candlestick reversal pattern when a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN appeared on NIFTY and SENSEX all these are not normal Technical tools to predict turning points in markets at various times we observed weakness in different sector indices and we immediately presented it through charts.

We hope we have served our investors /traders with best of our ability and we assure that we will be consistent in our performance in identifying turning points in our markets.

SENSEX/NIFTY VIEW FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 29TH NOVEMBER

It has been third week in a row in which SENSEX continued its downward journey there are two important things which will be important this week first is that as shown on Daily chart SENSEX  and NIFTY are moving in a parallel channel generally such channeled move takes support at different support levels and gives reasonable correction importantly for SENSEX it is now at an important support area which is the higher end of another year long upwards channel but on the other hand only two days left for the month to end and we are now witnessing CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS ON MONTHLY CHARTS not only for SENSEX but on almost all sector indices so if at the end of the Month these patterns do complete then its implication can be severe although as happened on weekly charts market may try and develop two CANDLESTICK REVERSAL PATTERNS even on Monthly chart to bring a larger crash afterwards another noticeable thing is the oversold condition of Momentum Indicators on weekly charts if they support  SENSEX and NIFTY and if there is a strong breakout of channel then expect a good upside rally in coming weeks.

WHAT LEVELS TO WATH FOR SENSEX/NIFTY FOR ANY MEANINGFUL UPSIDE

If we get a breakout of the downward channel on NIFTY then watch 5970 close on Daily chart for SENSEX the level is 19770 and if the rise is stronger then expectation of normal market player then watch a close above 6013 for NIFTY and 19930 for SENSEX all short term bearishness will get evaporated if NIFTY closes any Week above 6013 and SENSEX above 19930 but if the rise remains weak below 5970 around then the fresh downward journey will start and NIFTY will have Target around 5595-5565 for SENSEX the lower Target comes around 18530 these Targets are open especially because of a strong sell cross over seen on    Weekly MACD

IMPORTANCE OF 5970 FOR NIFTY

In normal Technical terms a level gains importance when it gives support more than once in case of NIFTY 5963 was a low on 30th September,5966 was a low on 20th October,5968 was a low on 29th October and finally 5970 was a low on 16th November on all previous occasions NIFTY got strong bounce from around 5970 but on 19th November 5970 was decisively broken on closing basis so now this level becomes an important Resistance level and if we presume that NIFTY will come to around 5595 then 5970 becomes 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the entire fall from 6350 to 5595 so if 5970 cannot be regained in any upside rally then 5565/5595 becomes almost an inevitable Target remember that a close above 5970 and then a weekly close above 6013 will negate all downside calculations for the short term.




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