Monday, October 10, 2011

WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEW















AN INTERSTING CANDLE PATTERN ON WEEKLY CHART OF SENSEX   : DRAGONFLY DOJI :
Let us first read what a DRAGON FLY DOJI is all about
bullish dragonfly doji candlestick
Bullish Dragonfly Doji


  
 Direction: Bullish
  
 Type: Reversal
  
 Reliability: Moderate


http://www.fxwords.com/images/words/bullish_dragonfly_doji.jpg
 

  
 Pattern is strongest after an established bearish trend
  
 A candle forms with a very small to almost nonexistent body with a long lower wick
  
 The lower wick is at least twice as long as the candlestick body
  
 Little or no upper wick


In a bearish trending market the dragonfly illustrates an unsustainable sell-off, where price drives up to new lows, but buyers take control of the trend by market close.
 

Although this formation is a moderate to weak signal, it is a warning for longs that the downtrend is losing momentum and bull may retake the market soon.
 

Most candlestick analysts will wait to confirm the signal, watching for a blue candle on day two.

HERE is the weekly chart of SENSEX as on 07-10-2011 :

The Dragonfly Doji is created when the open, high, and close are the same or about the same price (Where the open, high, and close are exactly the same price is quite rare). The most important part of the Dragonfly Doji is the long lower shadow.
The long lower shadow implies that the market tested to find where demand was located and found it. Bears were able to press prices downward, but an area of support was found at the low of the day and buying pressure was able to push prices back up to the opening price. Thus, the bearish advance downward was entirely rejected by the bulls.

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX AND NIFTY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD :

As one can see the SENSEX chart above as on Friday SENSEX completed a “ potential” reversal candle but before calling 15745 as a rock solid bottom we must wait for the follow up bull candle next week.

We are not trying to catch a BOTTOM but as we have identified certain TECHNICAL evidences we believe that if certain levels are crossed we can have a significant up side from these levels also NOTE that an IDEAL up move will come after SENSEX and NIFTY completes atleast one higher top and higher bottom formation on daily charts so look for this to happen in coming days.

Although as on daily chart if by Monday or Tuesday NIFTY closes above 4924 and if SENSEX closes above 16404 we will have a good confirmation to enter long.
A weekly close above 5034 and above 16756 for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively will give a more solid confirmation that we have a good bottom in place.

We will track different indicators during the next week to identify strength if a bottom is actually in place but this BANK NIFTY chart suggests that atleast BANKING STOCKS may have hit one significant bottom.

CNX BANK INDEX  WEEKLY CHART :
We projected the target of 8500 around during last week CNX BANK INDEX made a low of 8625 and bounced back.

TECHNICALLY we need to see and confirm that a HIGHER BOTTOM & HIGHER TOP is in place for SENSEX and NIFTY to call it a bottom but we did suggested a few weeks back that there can be a significant bottom in our markets around NIFTY level of 4538-4625 and SENSEX level of 14900-15300 but BANK NIFTY completed its projected target and in the mean time NIFTY and SENSEX just did not breach their august lows.

We also clearly mentioned that there will be some sort of price pattern I place and now NIFTY AND SENSEX can have a “ DOUBLE BOTTOM “ also if NEXT WEEK remains bullish SENSEX AND NIFTY may form a “ DOUBLE CANDLE REVERSAL “ patterns on weekly charts which was also discussed.
Also “POSITIVE DIVERGANCE “ was one TECHNICAL concept which we discussed earlier and here are few examples of A STRONG positive divergence inplace.

NEXT WEEK remains an important week to watch for confirmation of a significant bottom in place for our markets.
4720 and 15765 remains the TREND DECIDER levels for NIFTY and SENSEX as far as further down side possibilities are concerned and we will confirm any weakness at higher levels when ever it happens.

Perfectly NEGATIVE media and trader sentiment is what needed at any bottom and it is in place at this time






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