TECHNICAL VIEW FOR SENSEX
& NIFTY FOR THE WEEK STARTING FROM 30-01-2012
NEW POSSIBILITIES OPENS
UP FOR INDIAN STOCK MARKET
The up move in
the Month of JANUARY 2012 has arrived from a real DISBELIEF as clearly
suggested in my recent Months TECHNICAL VIEWS.
We were
expecting a decent rally from around 4538-4350 NIFTY LEVELS and from
15155-14600 SENSEX levels while for METALS we were expecting a good corrective
rally from the month of January 2012.
The rally has
come but its magnitude and the LEVEL OF PARTICIPATION makes me think of new
possibilities for the future.
Let us first
have a look at the PROJECTED move of SENSEX for 2011 and beyond
as per the chart which presented ON 12TH OCTOBER 2010.
BSE SENSEX QUARTERLY
CHART AS ON 08/10/2010
SENSEX did
tank a heavily by more than 30% in 2011 but the
fall unfolded as a Channel Move.
Our first
target was 15000 and SENSEX made a low of 15135.Interestingly there was a
classic Fibonacci magic at 15150 and for NIFTY that level was 4538 so both
indices touched those year long targets and bounced back sharply.
We expect our
markets to be in CONSOLIDATION PHASE for a few years starting 2008 and the move
is EXPECTED to unfold as an A-B-C-D-E TRIANGULAR PATTERN.
We suggested a
LARGER
“C” WAVE to unfold as a part of the above mentioned pattern.
CRUCIAL QUESTION IS “Is
the SUPPOSED “C” WAVE COMPLETED ?”
The answer may be
yes.
There are two
possibilities
First is
that the LARGE “C” WAVE may have ended
Two we
are seeing a bigger correction of the first leg of the “C” WAVE.
In both cases
we believe that there will be an up move up to 5649 for NIFTY and 18829 for
SENSEX in a better case even an up move up to 5947 and 19808 too can be
possible for NIFTY and SENSEX respectively.
We had
repeatedly been saying that the 2011 crash would not be like 2008 and as we
described an important difference between the two crash in our Report “SHIFT
OF FOCUS 2008-2011”.The 2011 move has no impact on certain sectors so
if the LARGER C WAVE has completed than we have a great buying opportunity in
those sectors because certain sector/stocks which have had minimum impact of
fall in 2011 are bound to scale new highs very soon.
About the
suggested LARGER CORRECTIVE RALLY we mentioned in our TECHNICAL VIEW DATED 28TH
NOVEMBER 2011
“We
will have one very big up move in 2012 from this zone and there will be a
STRONG REASON of very severe panic while it could be a POLITICAL CRISIS in our
country or a bad news from EUROPE but we will have one panic bottom in a few
Months time. We have seen corrections on Daily & Weekly Charts and we will
now see a correction on Monthly Charts and I am not saying that one should
start buying from tomorrow but do remember that NEXT PANIC BOTTOM will provide
a good buying opportunity for investors / traders alike. Also a bottom will
form in the ENVIRONMENT OF COMPLETE DISBELIEF as none believed our argument
about a major top in October 2010 and in January 2011
We also said
in this article that SENSEX/NIFTY will form DOUBLE CANDLESTICK PATTERNS ON
MONTHLY CHART as they hit bottom.
As on 27th
January both SENSEX & NIFTY are about to complete a “DOUBLE CANDLE REVERSAL
“ PATTERN on Monthly Charts as suggested two months back and that is one of the
main reasons for us to believe that the worst could be over for INDIAN markets.
BSE SENSEX MONTHY CHART
For short & medium term it is definitely a TIME TO GO LONG
on selective stocks.
For SENSEX and
NIFTY minimum targets should be around 61.8% retracement of the entire fall of
2011.
Indices may
even reach up to 80% levels.
A FEW REASONS
to believe this.
1) Fibonacci
ratios present at 4538
2) The fall is
a CHANNELED move
3) Oversold
STOCHASTIC on QUARTERLY chart.
We would like
to deviate from our earlier view about SENSEX/NIFTY up move to remain only
CORRECTIVE but it can be a new BULL WAVE TOO and we will take a call at higher
levels only.
OUR TECHNICAL VIEWS ON
OTHER INDICES & STOCKS
Besides projecting a
very big up move for Indian markets through our last two Month Technical Views,
we projected a very big up move for SBI looking at its BROADENING price
structure here are two charts of SBI before and after the projected move came
BSE METAL INDEX
OUR EARLIER
COMMENTS
BSE Metal Index seems
to be in formation of "the broadening pattern" so the down move which
has started from 12275 recently has all possibility to touch the lower end of
trend line around where some supports lie in form of 61.8 % Fibonacci
retracement & earlier low @ 9504.
Some bounce back is
expected due to highly oversold position on Daily Charts & support @ 10280
but all possibilities of cracking down to 9600-9500 levels.
OUR PRESENT VIEW ON BSE
METAL INDEX
The suggested "Broadening” structure has given a
good break out.
Metals are a clear buy on dips and no more sell on exit
at election gap and at 61.8% BSE Metal Index may have hit a very significant
bottom.
BSE
METAL INDEX WEEKLY CHARTS
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