WEEKLY & DAILY TECHNICAL VIEW

WEEKLY CHART BOOK  :

TECHNICAL VIEW OF SENSEX & NIFTY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD :

Before we look at TECHNICAL POSITION of charts as at the end of the last week i feel we should have a look at the last few months movement of our markets.

A BIG down side correction was started in OCTOBER 2010 which seemed to have ended at 4538 for NIFTY and at 15135 WHEN there was huge one side BULLISH MOVE came from DECEMBER 2011 and lasted till the last WEEK of FEBRUARY 2012

One would have easily EXPECTED our markets to continue uptrend after some correction but within a very few days of the start of correction i mentioned in my DAILY & WEEKLY TECHNICAL VIEWS that SENSEX and NIFTY should reach up to 80% retracement levels.

And both INDICES did reach their RESPECTIVE 80% RETRACEMT LEVELS of the WHOLE up move of DECEMBER –FEBRUARY.

And NOW after the UPMOVE that came in LAST FIVE WEEKS has reached a very CRITICAL STAGE.

I had suggested first TARGET OF NIFTY as 5378 which NIFTY missed by a few points for SENSEX i had advised to have caution at 17667 .

Caution was being advised as STOCHASTIC was in overbought zone on BOTH DAILY & WEEKLY CHARTS.

In my opinion our markets are at crucial and decisive stage as if the SMALL RECENT DOWN MOVE is ONLY A SMALL CORRECTION OF the recent FIVE WEEK up move then NIFTY must not BREACH 5096 AND SENSEX must not BREACH 16553 on closing basis in coming weeks.

In the coming WEEK IF NIFTY and SENSEX can regain the BEARISH GAP at 17329-17467 for SENSEX and at 5300-5261 for NIFTY and if SENSEX can produce a close above 17467 and if NIFTY can give a close above 5300 the recent up move may continue further

There will be an ATTEMPT from bulls as now STOCHASTICS is getting oversold soon.

BUT if the small correction continues further and takes NIFTY below 5096 we are in for a more COMPLEX CORRECTIVE for some more time to come.

DAILY TECH VIEW :

SENSEX: the BROADENING CHANNEL STRUCTURE is still intact in both SENSEX & NIFTY.

The STOCHASTIC is now near to oversold zone ON DAILY CHART which can trigger one bounce back

First indication of a positive move will come if SENSEX can sustain above 17343 and there will be some good STRENGTH if SENSEX can produce a CLOSE above the BEARISH GAP at 17467.

One can go long if SENSEX closes above 17467 again.

NIFTY: after the BIG DOWN GAP we did not see any severe down day in the last week so there is a chance that the recent short term down move can be a small correction only.

5257-5263 remains important RESISTANCE ZONE for very short term and as STOCHASTICS is nearing oversold zone and as NIFTY is still within the BROADENING STRUCTURE bulls will try for one more leg on the up side.

First indication of such an up move will be when NIFTY can sustain above 5263 for at least an hour.

Next confirmation will be if NIFTY can actually close above 5300

Go long if NIFTY moves beyond 5300 on any day in next few days.

CHARTS :