TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21122015:
Let Us First Re Define The TRENDs
SHORT TERM : UP (In Danger Below 7706)
MEDIUM TERM : DOWN ( Up Only On A Close Above 8034)
LONG TERM: UP
The Week Gone By Has Created A Number Of Probabilities For
The Future Of Our Markets Not Only For Next Week But For Coming Few Weeks
I Had Bearish View For The Medium Term And Was Expecting A
FREE FALL Kind Of Bearish Ness But ONLY BELOW 7554-7539 Also With A View To Have
Some Recovery From 7554-7539 And ANY BIG TREND Can Get INITIATED Only From
INTRADAY Recovery So As A Technical Analyst I Must Follow All Time Frames And
Conclude About My Views On Direction
On The EOD Charts Since 7551 Gave Support One More Time One
May Think Of A DOUBLE BOTTOM Price Pattern Formed On Weekly Charts
WEEKLY CHART OF
NIFTY:
At 7849 NIFTY Got Resisted At A Fibonacci Retracement And
Also It Was Just A GAP Feeling Done
The First Important Probability Is That This Up Move Is The
FIRST LEG Of A New Bull Move As On EOD Charts It Looks Like A '' V '' Shape Recovery
For This To Be
True NIFTY Must NOT CLOSE Below 7700 Next Week And After Finding Support Around
7700 It Should Again CLOSE Above 7776 (7810 NF)
On Weekly Chart NIFTY Has A Candle Reversal Pattern Called A
'' PIERCING LINE''
The Second Probability Is That The 4 Days Rally Was Just A
Corrective Up Side And Has Ended At The GAP
In This Case We Will See New Lows Once NIFTY Closes Below
The BULLISH GAP (7740-7706 For NF) At
7715-7700
The Third Probability Is That We Will Neither See A Strong
Rally Soon Nor Will We See A Break Below 7554-7539 Zone And The Move That We
Will Witness Be A TIME CONSUMING Base Formation
There Are Two Reasons To Believe This
Earlier A CANDLE REVERSAL Pattern Was Used To Work
Immediately But Nowadays Strong TREND REVERSALs Needs TWO CANDLE PATTERNS So In
Our Case We Will See One More Test Of Lows And NIFTY Will Have One MORE Bullish
Candle Pattern ON WEEKLY CHARTs Before This Down Trend Reverses
2nd Reason Is A Seemingly LOWER TOP Formations On WEEKLY
CHARTs Of NIKKEI & DOW
Here Are These Two Charts
DJIA WEEKLY CHART:
As Can Be Seen On Above DOW JONES WEEKLY Chart A LONG TERM
Trend Line Was Broken And There Was A
Pull Back In Which DOW Went Back Above It But LAST TWO Weekly Close Has
Been Again BELOW The Trend Line Suggesting A Severe Correction Has Initiated
With A LOWER TOP Formation
NIKKEI WEEKLY CHART:
NIKKEI Went To New Highs After A Break Out From FLAG Pattern
A SHARP Down Move Got Support At The Same FLAG But Now A
CLEAR LOWER TOP Seems To Have Formed Suggesting A SHARP Trend Reversal To
Happen Here Too
If The World Markets Have Entered Corrective Mode INDIA
Would Not Be Spared
BANK NIFTY:
The FOUR Day Rally In NIFTY Was Very Good But The Same Was
Not Very Convincing To Have A Bullish View About It
If BNF Closes Below 16490 The Down Move Will Speed Up Here
For BANKNIFTY A Close Below 16544 Will Be Weak And
Especially A CLOSE Below 16362 Will Be EXTREMELY BEARISH
BANK NIFTY EOD:
2015 IS ABOUT TO END:
After A Bull Move Started From Late 2013 We Had Seen A
ROARING Bull Market Through 2014 Till MARCH 2015
Since March 2015 We
Are Watching A SLOW & STEADY Correction Which DOES NOT SEEM To Be A BEAR
MARKET To Me
A BULL MARKET Like What We Have Seen Can Not End In Just An
Year
On The Yearly Chart 2015 Can Be Marked Just As A PAUSE
My Worry For Early 2016 Is One POSIIBLE PANIC LOW Once / IF
NIFTY Moves Decisively Below 7539-7554 Zone As WORLD Markets Are About To Enter
SHARP Corrective Mode
NIFTY YEARLY:
FOR TODAY:
Here Is An Hourly NIFTY FUTURE Chart Where In One Can See A
CHANNEL BREAK DOWN And GAP Resistance
The BULLISH GAP Support Is At 7740-7706 Which Is The TREND
DECIDER Price Zone For Today And For Next Few Days As Well
NF HOURLY: