Mastering Stochcharts: WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21122015:

Let Us First Re Define The TRENDs

SHORT TERM : UP (In Danger Below 7706)

MEDIUM TERM : DOWN ( Up Only On A Close Above 8034)

LONG TERM: UP

The Week Gone By Has Created A Number Of Probabilities For The Future Of Our Markets Not Only For Next Week But For Coming Few Weeks

I Had Bearish View For The Medium Term And Was Expecting A FREE FALL Kind Of Bearish Ness But ONLY BELOW 7554-7539 Also With A View To Have Some Recovery From 7554-7539 And ANY BIG TREND Can Get INITIATED Only From INTRADAY Recovery So As A Technical Analyst I Must Follow All Time Frames And Conclude About My Views On Direction

On The EOD Charts Since 7551 Gave Support One More Time One May Think Of A DOUBLE BOTTOM Price Pattern Formed On Weekly Charts

WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY:

At 7849 NIFTY Got Resisted At A Fibonacci Retracement And Also It Was Just A GAP Feeling Done

The First Important Probability Is That This Up Move Is The FIRST LEG Of A New Bull Move As On EOD Charts It Looks Like A '' V '' Shape Recovery

For This To Be True NIFTY Must NOT CLOSE Below 7700 Next Week And After Finding Support Around 7700 It Should Again CLOSE Above 7776 (7810 NF)

On Weekly Chart NIFTY Has A Candle Reversal Pattern Called A '' PIERCING LINE''

The Second Probability Is That The 4 Days Rally Was Just A Corrective Up Side And Has Ended At The GAP

In This Case We Will See New Lows Once NIFTY Closes Below The BULLISH GAP (7740-7706 For NF) At 7715-7700

The Third Probability Is That We Will Neither See A Strong Rally Soon Nor Will We See A Break Below 7554-7539 Zone And The Move That We Will Witness Be A TIME CONSUMING Base Formation

There Are Two Reasons To Believe This

Earlier A CANDLE REVERSAL Pattern Was Used To Work Immediately But Nowadays Strong TREND REVERSALs Needs TWO CANDLE PATTERNS So In Our Case We Will See One More Test Of Lows And NIFTY Will Have One MORE Bullish Candle Pattern ON WEEKLY CHARTs Before This Down Trend Reverses

2nd Reason Is A Seemingly LOWER TOP Formations On WEEKLY CHARTs Of NIKKEI & DOW

Here Are These Two Charts

DJIA WEEKLY CHART:

As Can Be Seen On Above DOW JONES WEEKLY Chart A LONG TERM Trend Line Was Broken And There Was A Pull Back In Which DOW Went Back Above It But LAST TWO Weekly Close Has Been Again BELOW The Trend Line Suggesting A Severe Correction Has Initiated With A LOWER TOP Formation

NIKKEI WEEKLY CHART:

NIKKEI Went To New Highs After A Break Out From FLAG Pattern

A SHARP Down Move Got Support At The Same FLAG But Now A CLEAR LOWER TOP Seems To Have Formed Suggesting A SHARP Trend Reversal To Happen Here Too

If The World Markets Have Entered Corrective Mode INDIA Would Not Be Spared

BANK NIFTY:

The FOUR Day Rally In NIFTY Was Very Good But The Same Was Not Very Convincing To Have A Bullish View About It

If BNF Closes Below 16490 The Down Move Will Speed Up Here

For BANKNIFTY A Close Below 16544 Will Be Weak And Especially A CLOSE Below 16362 Will Be EXTREMELY BEARISH

BANK NIFTY EOD:

2015 IS ABOUT TO END:

After A Bull Move Started From Late 2013 We Had Seen A ROARING Bull Market Through 2014 Till MARCH 2015

Since March 2015 We Are Watching A SLOW & STEADY Correction Which DOES NOT SEEM To Be A BEAR MARKET To Me

A BULL MARKET Like What We Have Seen Can Not End In Just An Year

On The Yearly Chart 2015 Can Be Marked Just As A PAUSE

My Worry For Early 2016 Is One POSIIBLE PANIC LOW Once / IF NIFTY Moves Decisively Below 7539-7554 Zone As WORLD Markets Are About To Enter SHARP Corrective Mode

NIFTY YEARLY: