TECHNICAL VIEW

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 30122015:

NIFTY:

NIFTY Continued It Up Ward Move And Closed Above 7915 For Two Consecutive Days

But 7960 Is A Resistance And We Have A PROBABLE Topping Pattern Called '' A DOJI '' On Both NIFTY & BNF Eod Charts So Caution Is Advised Now

8000-8034 Still Possible But NF Has A New STOP At 7889

A 15 Minute CLOSE Below 7889 Will Bring In Sharp Down Move For NF

NIFTY Closing Below 7902 And 7888 Will Be  Bearish

NIFTY EOD:

BANK NIFTY:

A Target Of 17038 Was Given A Few Days Back For BANK NIFTY And It Was Reached Yesterday

Expect Volatility As Settlement Closing Coming Up

17125 Is Next Target & Resistance For BNF

BNF Closing Below 16886-16865 Zone Will Be Bearish And BNF Can Come Down To 16730-16600 Again On CLOSING Below This Zone

A DOJI Candle Pattern On BANK NIFTY Chart Too Which Suggests A TOP May Be Nearby

EOD CHART Of BANK NIFTY:

WEEKLY CHART BOOK 28122015

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Of NIFTY & BANK NIFTY For The WEEK 28122015:

NIFTY:

After A Big Down Move In August-2015 We Had Seen Three Counter Rallies One From 7539 To 8338 Second From 7700 To 8000 And The Third Again From 7551

In My Opinion This 300+ NIFTY Up Move Can Be The First Leg Of A New Bull Wave

There Are IFs And BUTs And We May Have Better Clue By Next Week Or Maximum By Next Fortnight As Every Thing Depends Upon The Correction Of The Recent Up Move Which Is Due Any Time

We Will Have A Firm HIGHER BOTTOM Against The Previous Low Of 7551 After We Can Have A Temporary TOP May Be Around 8000

And The PROCESS Of The HIGHER BOTTOM Formation Will Decide If We Are Already In A NEW BULL Wave Or Not

Watch Levels On Each Day Suggested Here To Have A Better View On The Markets

NIFTY EOD:

We Have A GAP At 7912 In NIFTY So A CLOSE Above 7912 Early NEXT WEEK Will Take NIFTY Towards 7934-7980 First And I Expect A Correction Again

If NIFTY Really Reaches 7980 Then The Correction From There Will Be An ALL IMPORTANT Move To Watch

If Correction Remains SLOW & MILD It Will Present A Great Buying Opportunity

If SEVERE & SPEEDY We Will Analyze It Accordingly

On The WEEKLY Charts The 'PIERCING LINE 'Candle Reversal Pattern Has Done The Trick And A WEEKLY CLOSE Above 8034 Will Put NIFTY In A Strong Bullish Move

On Intraday Charts There Was Some Base Formation Around 7850 Which Was Broken For A While On Thursday And Recovered Smartly Again Above 7850

So A CLOSE Below 7830 Any Day Will Also Initiate A Corrective Down Move Again

BANK NIFTY:

In My Last Weekly Report I Observed That BANK NIFTY Did Not Move With As Much Strength As NIFTY Had But During Last Week BANK NIFTY Too Crossed Some Important Hurdle At 16600 And Has A Good Weekly Close Above 16600

The LONG TERM Trend line Which Was Earlier Broken On Weekly Charts But Last Week BANK NIFTY Gave A Close ABOVE This Trend Line Suggesting The BREAK Was A False One

17034-17142 Are Two Up Side Targets First

A CLOSE Below 16730 Should Be Considered Weak For BANK NIFTY

EOD BANK NIFTY:

WEEKLY BANK NIFTY:

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 21122015:

Let Us First Re Define The TRENDs

SHORT TERM : UP (In Danger Below 7706)

MEDIUM TERM : DOWN ( Up Only On A Close Above 8034)

LONG TERM: UP

The Week Gone By Has Created A Number Of Probabilities For The Future Of Our Markets Not Only For Next Week But For Coming Few Weeks

I Had Bearish View For The Medium Term And Was Expecting A FREE FALL Kind Of Bearish Ness But ONLY BELOW 7554-7539 Also With A View To Have Some Recovery From 7554-7539 And ANY BIG TREND Can Get INITIATED Only From INTRADAY Recovery So As A Technical Analyst I Must Follow All Time Frames And Conclude About My Views On Direction

On The EOD Charts Since 7551 Gave Support One More Time One May Think Of A DOUBLE BOTTOM Price Pattern Formed On Weekly Charts

WEEKLY CHART OF NIFTY:

At 7849 NIFTY Got Resisted At A Fibonacci Retracement And Also It Was Just A GAP Feeling Done

The First Important Probability Is That This Up Move Is The FIRST LEG Of A New Bull Move As On EOD Charts It Looks Like A '' V '' Shape Recovery

For This To Be True NIFTY Must NOT CLOSE Below 7700 Next Week And After Finding Support Around 7700 It Should Again CLOSE Above 7776 (7810 NF)

On Weekly Chart NIFTY Has A Candle Reversal Pattern Called A '' PIERCING LINE''

The Second Probability Is That The 4 Days Rally Was Just A Corrective Up Side And Has Ended At The GAP

In This Case We Will See New Lows Once NIFTY Closes Below The BULLISH GAP  (7740-7706 For NF) At 7715-7700

The Third Probability Is That We Will Neither See A Strong Rally Soon Nor Will We See A Break Below 7554-7539 Zone And The Move That We Will Witness Be A TIME CONSUMING Base Formation

There Are Two Reasons To Believe This

Earlier A CANDLE REVERSAL Pattern Was Used To Work Immediately But Nowadays Strong TREND REVERSALs Needs TWO CANDLE PATTERNS So In Our Case We Will See One More Test Of Lows And NIFTY Will Have One MORE Bullish Candle Pattern ON WEEKLY CHARTs Before This Down Trend Reverses

2nd Reason Is A Seemingly LOWER TOP Formations On WEEKLY CHARTs Of NIKKEI & DOW

Here Are These Two Charts

DJIA WEEKLY CHART:

As Can Be Seen On Above DOW JONES WEEKLY Chart A LONG TERM Trend Line Was Broken And There Was A  Pull Back In Which DOW Went Back Above It But LAST TWO Weekly Close Has Been Again BELOW The Trend Line Suggesting A Severe Correction Has Initiated With A LOWER TOP Formation

NIKKEI WEEKLY CHART:

NIKKEI Went To New Highs After A Break Out From FLAG Pattern

A SHARP Down Move Got Support At The Same FLAG But Now A CLEAR LOWER TOP Seems To Have Formed Suggesting A SHARP Trend Reversal To Happen Here Too

If The World Markets Have Entered Corrective Mode INDIA Would Not Be Spared

BANK NIFTY:

The FOUR Day Rally In NIFTY Was Very Good But The Same Was Not Very Convincing To Have A Bullish View About It

If BNF Closes Below 16490 The Down Move Will Speed Up Here

For BANKNIFTY A Close Below 16544 Will Be Weak And Especially A CLOSE Below 16362 Will Be EXTREMELY BEARISH

BANK NIFTY EOD:

2015 IS ABOUT TO END:

After A Bull Move Started From Late 2013 We Had Seen A ROARING Bull Market Through 2014 Till MARCH 2015

Since March 2015 We Are Watching A SLOW & STEADY Correction Which DOES NOT SEEM To Be A BEAR MARKET To Me

A BULL MARKET Like What We Have Seen Can Not End In Just An Year

On The Yearly Chart 2015 Can Be Marked Just As A PAUSE

My Worry For Early 2016 Is One POSIIBLE PANIC LOW Once / IF NIFTY Moves Decisively Below 7539-7554 Zone As WORLD Markets Are About To Enter SHARP Corrective Mode

NIFTY YEARLY:

FOR TODAY:

Here Is An Hourly NIFTY FUTURE Chart Where In One Can See A CHANNEL BREAK DOWN And GAP Resistance

The BULLISH GAP Support Is At 7740-7706 Which Is The TREND DECIDER Price Zone For Today And For Next Few Days As Well

NF HOURLY:

TECHNICAL VIEW For 16122015: HOPE WITH CAUTION

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 16122015:

NIFTY:

A Nice Follow Up Move For NIFTY After The Bullish PIERCING LINE Candle Pattern On Monday

First Hour Of Trade Is Very Important Today

As NF Will Move Up To 7760-7780 If It Continues To Trade Above 7725

Weakness Will Be Seen Again If NF Trades Below 7780

But 7626 Is The SAR For Bullish Trades But Any Thing Can Happen After FED Announcement Tonight

Markets May Have Discounted A One Time Increase In Rates But It Is Prudent To Wait And Watch

NIFTY FUTURE Chart:

BANK NIFTY:

BANKNIFTY Has Touched 16200 Which Was TARGET/SUPPORT And We Are Witnessing Mild Recovery From Supports

We Have A 'DOJI STAR'' Candle Pattern For BNF Which Needs A STRONG BULLISH CANDLE Today To Suggest A Reversal

BNF Has Resistance At 16500 And A Fifteen Minute CLOSE Above 16500 Can Take BNF To 16625-16680 Price Zone Which Is SHORT TERM TREND REVERSAL ZONE

An EOD Close Above 16680 Can Take BNF Higher

I Would Suggest Shorts Below 16275 Only .

BNF EOD CHART:

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 14122015:

NIFTY:

I Had Very Categorically Defined The SHORT & MEDIUM Term TRENDs As DOWN And As NIFTY Was Unable To CROSS & CLOSE Above 8000-8034 Selling Pressure Was Very Well Anticipated

I Had Clearly Said The One Should Not Get Surprised If NIFTY Can Reach 7610-7554 Without Having Any Bounce There Was One Day Recovery From 7610 But As NIFTY FUTUREs Could Not Cross 7725 And Moved Back Below 7678 The Hope Based Rally Shattered Away

Be Warned Again As NOW We Really May See A FREE FALL Kind Of A Situation

Clearly Volumes Have Dried Up And BUY LOW-SELL HIGH Kind Of Traders Showing No Interest Once Below 7554-7530 NIFTY May Well Witness A FREE FALL On Any Day

7725 Is The NF Level To Watch For Whole Next Week For Any Meaning Full Recovery In Markets

7539-7554 Are Two Levels To Watch For Today And Tomorrow As 7539 Was NIFTY Low For August We May See Some INTRADAY Bounce Back From There

CLOSING A Five Minute Candle Back Above 7610 After Touching 7554-7539 Can Produce Some More INTRA Day Rallies But It Will Be Difficult To Close A Day Above 7703

It  Is A Week Of Big News From FED Markets Will Be Volatile

If 7554-7539 Can Not Give Much Support And NIFTY Continues To Fall There Is A Great Fibonacci Setup Around 7331-7296-7278 Zone Which Becomes The Next Target Zone Below 7539

NIFTY FIBONACCI SET UP:

For The WEEKLY Picture  A Weekly Close Above 7771 In Next Couple Of Weeks Can Change The Trend On Short Term Basis

Else We Will Have A Series Of LOWER TOP-LOWER BOTTOM Formation On Charts

WEEKLY NIFTY:

This EOD NIFTY Chart Was Posted A Few Weeks Back

BANK NIFTY:

NIFTY Bounced Back From 7610 And NF Crossed And Closed Above 7678-7696 Zone So I Was Compelled To Give Upper Targets  Of 7760-7803 ONLY Above 7725 Luckily NF Could NOT Cross 7725 And BANK NIFTY Was The Culprit For Fridays Strongly Negative Close

BANK NIFTY Could Not Cross Any Up Side Resistance And Nearly Met My Target Of 16200 Below 16600 As It Made A LOW Of 16260

An Hourly Close Below 16200 Will Bring BANK NIFTY To 16046 As One Target & Support

BANK NIFTY Is Clearly Heading Towards New Lows And Even 15800 Is Possible Very Soon

We Will Watch How It Behaves Around There But This Recent Down Wave Seems Very Relentless And We May See Levels Like 14900-14300 As Well

BANK NIFTY EOD CHART:

THE WEEKLY PICTURE:

BANK NIFTY Has BROKEN The Rising Trend Line Which Connects AUG 13 And FEB 14 Lows On WEEKLY Chart

This Suggests That IF We Do Not See A STRONG Weekly Closing Above 17039 In Next Couple Of Weeks BANK NIFTY Is Bound To Reach The LOWER END Of The CHANNEL Drawn On The Weekly Chart

WEEKLY BANK NIFTY:

A CRUCIAL BREAK DOWN

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR 09122015:

NIFTY:

NIFTY Opened With One More Gap Tried To Recover But In The Last Hour Sell Off CLOSED Below 7725-7714 Zone

7800 For NF And 7771 For NIFTY Becomes An Immediate Resistant Now Or If The BREAK DOWN Is False Today NIFTY Have To CLOSE The First Hour Above 7725

For Some Real Up Side Corrective NIFTY Will Have To Close Above The TREND LINE Shown On The Chart

If This Happens We May See Some Corrective Just Because Of Extreme Over  Sold Indicators But Dont Get Surprised If NIFTY Straight Away Reaches 7610-7554

NIFTY EOD:

NF Today Has Targets / Supports At 7682 And 7648 So Watch How NF Behaves At These Two Levels

BANK NIFTY:

16600 Has Been Our Prime Target And 16200 Next

I Had Posted An HOURLY CHART Of BNF A Few Days Back Showing The Up Move In A BEARISH CHANNEL Resulting This Down Move

This Channeled Move Too Gives Us Targets Of 16352 And 16045

A CLOSE Above 16934 /17039 Can Again Reverse The Very SHORT TERM TREND Else We Should See Down Side Targets Very Soon

BANK NIFTY:;

CHARTs

WEEKLY CHART BOOK

TECHNICAL VIEW FOR THE WEEK 07122015:

NIFTY:

8000 Was My First Target For NIFTY And Due To High Premium In November NF Before The Crash NF Did Touch 8000 But NIFTY Missed It By Some 28 Points

I Wrote A Few Weeks Back When Some Strength Was Observed That Selling Will Resume From Around 8000 And The Same Has Happened

Two DOJI STARs And A Big BEARISH Candle Signaled The Down Move And Below 7956-7934 I Had Suggested Down Side Targets Too

The Recent Fall Has Come Up With BEARISH GAPs Which Will Make It Tougher For The Bulls To Fight Back

I Had Presented The Following Chart Before The Start Of The Fresh Down Move Where I Suggested 8000 As A Strong Resistance And New Bull Move ONLY ABOVE 8817

EOD NIFTY :

As Can Be Seen STOPs At 7879 & 7812 Are Triggered But Some Support Seen At The Short Term TREND LINE

Here Is The Updated Chart

7853 Is The LEVEL To Watch For Any Up Side For The Next Week

NIFTY As On WEEKLY CHART :

For NIFTY I Have Been Presenting A BROADENING PATTERN Since Last Few Months And Around 8300 NIFTY Got Resisted @Its Upper End Also At The Low Of 7539 NIFTY Got Support At The LOWER END Of The Same Pattern

In The Fall From 8300 As NIFTY Came Down Twice To 7700/7726 As I Found Some Strength Targets Of Up To 8034 Were Suggested But I High Lighted This Comment In My WEEKLY CHART BOOK Dated 23112015

'' Both Short And Medium Term Trend Remains Down Unless NIFTY Closes Back Strongly Above 8034 ''

As On Today Again Both Trends Remains Down Only

On A Note Of Caution If NIFTY Remains Below 7853-7880 For Next Couple Of Days And Then BREAKS BELOW 7700 We Will Not See 7539 Working As Support In A Big Way

BANK NIFTY:

BANK NIFTY Had A BETTER Up Move As It Met Target Of 16600 And Did Not Move Much Down When NIFTY Moved To 7726 Twice And So BANK NIFTY Moved Up To Reach The Target Of 17500 Nicely

But I Clearly Suggested That Any FURTHER Up Side Was POSSIBLE Only If BANK NIFTY Can Close Above 17500

Twice It Touched 17500 Around But Could Not CLOSE A Day Above It

Mid Week I Suggested Down Move Below 17262 And BANK NIFTY Too CLOSED The Week Below Important Level Of 17970

For Next Few Days BANK NIFTY Has Strong Resistance At 17100-17219 And A CLOSE ABOVE 17219 Can Again Move Bank Nifty On The Upside

During The Week A CLOSE Below 16600 Will Give Down Side Targets Of 16200-15900

WEEKLY CHART:

EOD BANK NIFTY CHART: