Thursday, June 25, 2009

Budget hopes ENCOUNTERS Weak monsoon

We have been talking abt. budget hope,,that particular positive factor for the markets ,encounter equally negative factor today, in the form of prediction of below normal rains
this year.
These re two important fundamental factors affecting short-medium term market moves.BUT what technicals suggested ??..as always i do firmly believe that fundamentals follows technicals,,or in other words ,fundamentals are reflected in technicals.
Technically...as per me..4350-4370 was the major hurdle tobe crossed.as i mentioned 2-3 days ago..that any rally upto 4350-4370 zone should be shorted.yesterday i added another factor,,(which offcourse couldhave proven very positive),it was inverted h&s in hourly charts of reliance,,there were..four IFS (IF,IF,IF,IF),in saying that the pattern can get completed if the neckline..or around 2040 levels be broken..please see yesterdays chart of reliance.THIS breakout never happend and morning highs were around 4350 and 14600 in nifty and sensex.
SO,both technical factors worked against the bulls for the day.

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