Monday, July 13, 2009

COMBINATION OF MULTI-TIME FRAME CHARTS

Readers were warned here ,first on 18th june 2009,when rising wedge was shown as a bearish pattern,,and i wrote here,that all stocks will be available cheaper...nifty was around 4300,and now since everybody had seen the crash pudget,,the whole media is talking abt 3800-3600,for nifty to reach.
Again on 26th june,a probable TOP HEAD&SHOULDER pattern was shown as being developed,(offcourse,the rising channel was also a probability),,,amid budget hopes nifty touched 4080 on budget day...and started to crash.readers must remember my comments about the budget,i said
on the budget day....pre-market
"All said and done,,there s a small note for readers....if the budget meets market expectations we should see a good short term rise..but unless and untill nifty closes or atleast reaches 4700..the TOP H&S remains a probability...so please keep those 2 trendlines in mind...and it might happen that markets will fall a few hundred points ( sensex) but some stocks favoured by budget may close up..and reverse case too is possible...After all its a big policy day..SO TODAYS CLOSE HAS LOTS N LOTS OF SIGNIFICANCE...FOR THE SHORT-MED TERM TREND "
AND before this ,please read the last para of my article on 17th june,here.
"FOR nifty...if 4450-4480 levels are not regained and the weakness started continues till the weekend..than the most important support zone and so target zone lies somewhere in between3714 and 3900.all readers are hereby adviced to book profits in all longs,,weather bought for short/med/long term.as in my view there are all chances that they will be able to buy stocks much cheaper.one must keep 4450-4470 and 4540 nifty levels in mind. for short to med term,any corrective rise ,if at all comes must not go beyond these levels for my expected tgts to come. "
READERS can chk the high nifty made on budget day...it was 4480.this 4450-4470 zone was given 20 days prior to the budget day...
Today when i am writing this sgx nifty is trading at 3910..i think bearishness is reaching at its temporary extreme.and this fall has tobe arrested for a few days.
NOW,,,something abt the larger picture.
i am posting here nifty weekly--monthly---quarterly charts,and trying to use their combination to arrive at the future .
AS on quarter basis, nifty has made quarterly MORNING STAR candle pattern,on the quarter ended june-2009...this implies that any fall in the coming quarter should be utilised as BUYING opportunity.
BUT the monthly picture is little disturbing..as per the support zones given here earlier,around 3700 we have very very strong support zones using multi technical tools...like gaps,,fibbonacci supports,,,previous highs which were resistances..now supports...etc
but, if nifty is going to reach this support area straight away..in this month only (and on the closing basis too)..than as per MY UNDERSTANDING...it will be a drastic fall ,difficult tobe digested easily.and may open up for some lower areas too.as shown in the following chart,,such fall in this month itself may complete the EVENING STAR candle pattern on monthly charts.
NOW on weekly charts..as shown in the 2 weekly charts..we are coming nearer tothe gapped area and weekly stochastic is for the first time entering the oversold area,after the steep rise started from early march 2009.in my opinion this should be a good buying opportunity.



so all in all...this months close is going tobe very important and a rally of 200-300 points in nifty (may be only a corrective rally) in a few days will arrest the growing bearish momentum.

with this picture in mind,as i have been posting charts with buy-sell calls ,which my trading system generates..will help me in analysing how markets change their colours.

interested readers may add bhoom2tika in ym.

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