TRYING TO LISTEN WHAT CHARTS SPEAKS

It took me two full days ,to think ,how to guess budget from charts....very difficult task indeed,still putting all my experience into my efforts and keeping some basics of the subject in my mind,, and using my trading system ,here i am trying to guess what will be the impact of budget ,on markets, or how the markets are actually trying to take the budget into the price action a little in advance.

First ,lets all realise, that this year s budget will be a very important in one major aspect,,respected dr. manmohan singh was the pioneer of the economic reforms and free economy since he as fm opened up the economy way back in 1991..those 5 yrs budgets were fully reflecting his policy..last 5 yrs ,although being pm himself, i dont think he could do whatever he wanted for the economy largely due to the LEFT factor,,so after 1991-1996, this year in 2009

we can see the real dr singh (the economist) EFFECT in budget.as he will have full-free hand after so many years.


AND NOW CHARTS :::::: First lets observe on hourly chart of nifty,,

AS i had put ,two charts of nifty,a few days back,,with 2 different probabilities,one showing channel and the other showing a probable h&s pattern on daily charts.now have a glance at this hourly chart and one can see ,channel and PROBABLE h&s ,in the move after the crash from 4700.,,if u view this chart which i m posting just below here,,its a broad reange chart,,one can see channel and hns on higher range too.the neckline for both hns pattern is the same line.one can see that on last 2 days ,after the reversal candle pattern on daily charts ,market took support on the same neckline and bounced back ,closing the week strong again.

so, the probability of hns on a small range have been negated on friday,now we have have to watch for the channel taregets for the budget day.

AND now have a look at this daily chart of nifty.its very clearly seen that how strong support has been provided by the lower channel line ( one neckline too), in the last few days,,remember this chart was posted here ,some 5-7 days back.

here ,its very clear that with fridays close ,the daily candle reversel pattern has been negated.also as it happened on smaller range of hourly charts,we may not see the top hns pattern get complete...now please give importance to the word MAY..but now the balance of probabilty may be tilting a bit more towards the channeled move.

A detailed article on my way of using fibonacci is pending ,but i am putting the sensex chart with probable targets ,,IF THE BUDGET FULFILLS GENERAL EXPECTATINS OF MARKETS.

IN my opinion ,theres a very thin line between market expectations for sector specific policies for the budget and the real budget announcements.for example ,markets may be expecting a 15% rise of budget s planned amount allocated for infrastructure projects and the actual annoncements may suggest 12%..so its crucial and equally difficult to predict how markets reacts..even on such difference.( this is just an example)...

QUARTERLY PICTURE::: readers may recall ,that i posted one article ,suggesting the quater to remain positive...and june-2009 quarter had closed positive,,completing so many QUARTERLY BULLISH CANDLE PATTERNS..IN pivotals.

so head n shoulder or channeled move..what ever happens post budget,,,but any fall ,if at all comes post budget in coming weeks /months must be taken as goodish buying opportunity,,please keep this in mind.

NOW , something about weekly charts,,i am a little bit more positive on market move post budget because i am getting some good buy calls on some stocks as per my trading system.