Tuesday, October 26, 2010

corrective to end soon.

Markets  are  witnessing  increasing volatility this could be because of huge churning of positions by big players, there can be bigger shift in their portfolio from one sector to other OR it could be a serious TOPPING OUT process.
Let us   first study intraday nifty chart. The chart that is being given here is 60 MINUTE NIFTY FUTURE CHART.

After the initial crash of more than 300 nifty points the rally from   below 6000 to 6150 seems to be
a  corrective RECTANGLE  IT will not remain a corrective move if it closes an hour above the   RECTANGLE or level wise above 6162 spot nifty level or 6187 october  fut nifty level.
A  BREAKDOWN from the rectangle below 6010 will open up further downside and the downside could be severe as this could be THIRD WAVE of the down move.
Third waves are known to be  FAST AND FURIOUS.
Please do remember that if nifty takes support at 5924 and bounces back it will be a good SHORT term buying opportunity too. But if nifty fails to give a bounce back move from 5924 than we are to see our next target of 5700. At that time most traders will become bearish but looking at the support zones from various angles (refer our 11th October 2010 technical update),there will be very strong bounce back
From  around  5700 levels.
a DYNAMITE candle reversal pattern on NIFTY weekly charts.
It is not known much, one of my old friend identified this candle reversal pattern ,way back in around 1996..its called A DYNAMITE.
it develops when one candle has very high shadow (inverted hammer or a shooting star) FOLLOWS by a
a candle with a big lower shadow (HANGING MAN ).

THE implication of this pattern is an EXPLOSIVE down move, when it appears at the TOP.
For my readers though, 5924 /5700 nifty targets have been given, earlier.
it will be intersting to know when the pullback rally actually ends.
it will be a close below 5098,i would call the pullback rally to end.

Bse metal :After hitting an all time high of 20494 in January 2008 metals melt down heavily the bse metal index made a low of 3806 in October 2010 there after in an effort to cross 2008 ,like the other bse indices (banking and it) bse metal made a high of 18560 in January 2010 and 18736 in april 2010 but both efforts were unsuccessful in reaching new highs.again in October 2010 bse metal went up to 18036 but failing even to cross previous highs.

As shown in the daily bse metal chart, the price structure this time is comparable with the structure in april 2010.
In a few days,bse metal index could start falling .we had recommended hindalco as a positional sell on Friday and this week we recommend shorts for sterlite.

Sterlite  cmp:168
Recommendation : sell cmp 168 add shorts upto 177
Stoploss : 181
Targets :150/136/113
Axis bank :
Short axis bank cmp:1465 add shorts up to 1489.
Stoploss :1513
Targets :1436 /1398.

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