4817-4860 worked WITH my systems calls

I mentioned two lvls ,in the morning,,,,,and said that a decisive breach and close below 4860 will favour bears.and support was 4817...nifty made low of 4807 and bounced to cross 4860 again.

weekly charts looks weak, still, with a weak close today.and todays daily charts recovery NEEDS A STRONG FOLLOW-UP....which to me seems tobe quite difficult.

lets see , how market develops further.4860 remains still to be the most important lvl to watch in coming days.

watch nifty with my system on 5 minute charts.

SBI WILL LEAD THE FALL ON A DECISIVE BREACH OF 4860

Safty measures were taken,in a very bold manner,here,with a clear cut instruction of closing longs,on 25-11-09, even though nifty kept rising on intraday charts strength.

not sticking to my own tgt of 5178,i advised to book longs.....thank god !!!!!!!!

readers should remember that measuring weightage of evidence of bullish-bearish probabilities

is a key factor to predict even very short term market move.i did the same on 25th,finding the weight tilting towards bears.

i had earlier posted a chart of sbi, with huge bearish probabilities,maintaining the importance of top h&s pattern,the updated chart is being posted, here.

indicator works

My chart says it all.

the last rise, it seems tobe a structure like a ROUNDING TOP...and ultimately a LOWER TOP...first important confirmation will be a close below 4937 and than A DECISIVE BREACH of 4860-4817 will put an end to the rally from march-09.

FELIXIBILTY + TIMING = SUCCESS ??

yesterdays messege seems to have gone quite un noticed...i was very very clear...in saying to close all longs..at or around 3 pm as on yesterday.

nifty did make a high of 5141..missing tgt by some 35 points,,,but last tuesday i advised to buy on dips, till 4860 holds,than nifty went down near my supports at 4924 and rallied upto 5140...and at 5120 i clearly advised to book longs.
hope whoever noticed me,,benefited.

some serious trouble seems possible for the markets.
as usual..market has the uncanny habits of giving false break-outs,at the end of any larger moves..may have happened this time too.

nifty 1 min today

LOOSING MOMENTUM

Although weekly charts remain in buy mode,in my opinion,markets are loosing short term momentum on the upside,creating doubts abt reaching tgts ,in a hurry.

i would advice to close longs, today and remain sideways for a day-or two

chances of upside rally, may resume, if 5048 and 5006 remains intact for 2-3 days.as the opening looks strong,,,close long at around 3 pm today.

NIFTY SEEMS READY TO FLY

MARKETS, it seems have finally decided to move sharply up.

breaking the confusion of a lower top or higher bottom formation.next nifty targets could be 5175,5317,5332 and 5398.

some stocks like..icici,hdfc,reliance,acc,tata steel seems ready to go significantly higher, from now on.

sensex seems tobe clearly moving in a channeled move..the higher end of the channel..will be the traget and resistance,if both indices take out their recent highs.

my assumption of mild correction till friday,proved very timely..as nifty took strong supports JUST above support lvl of 4924,mentioned here.

INVERTED H&S IN NIFTY & ITS RSI,,,WILL IT WORK ??

FLEXIBILTY IS THE KEY

A member of one forum, raised a q regarding post pattern publishing of charts, and on sbi hns and said he is short.........i answered in this manner....

dear ranga sir,,,will try to post a detailed answer..to all hidden questions..POST PATTERN...comment of urs on my 1 min chart is valid..my reason to publish the chart,is that how ,i can take faster twist n turn in this volatile market,another reason is that,i already mentioned abt correction upto friday was tobe bought at dips ,for tgt 5330 on tuesday and next day ,i gave supports at 4924..now i just wanted to show, how even 1 min chart can be helpful in spotting a turn a little above ..:generally known supports/resistances..(i hope you remember,top hns post budget..when every single person knew tgt was around 3750..markets turned before that figure was seen.}

this is market for you..its collective mass psychology working,and hidden jealousy of every human mind,when gets collective,will never allow ,a normal trader to earn money, that easily,especially if you are stuck with ,what you think abt markets.

here is what i wrote on last tuesday..........
Posted by: bjnaik on 18-NOV-2009 (07:30:31) [IP address: 184:53:134:----] [delete this message]
expect a small correction from here,,and if the correction remains mild,upto friday..we will be reaching new highs for nifty around 5330.nifty lvl to watch if any short term correction stsrts is 4860.buy on dips till that lvl holds, should be the trading strategy.

dear ranga sir,,regarding sbi hns..i hope you understand ,that my duty is to warn traders/readers of any move in advance ,as early as possible..now the hns pattern is clearly visible,bt it gets commpleted ONLY on the breach of the neckline..so in the coming rise..as 5330 was tgt given for nifty,a positional trader can take short position in sbi first..on the very first signs of weakness..near nifty tgt and IF the pattern remains intact,even before the breach of the neckline..one has to observe if the so called pattern SHAPE remains INTACT !!!!!..hope you get my point.

also sir, at times,markets do generate clear cut signals for me..as the one..when i wrote here.."NIFTY WILL ZOOOOOOM ABOVE 4655"..bt market at times take U TURN on intraday basis..no one knows the precise timings..thats why.i wrote on tuesday itself..THAT BUYING ON DIPS SHOULD BE THE TRADING STRATEGY TILL 4860 HOLDS..
and markets turned sharply up yesterday just before the supports at 4924 !!!!
AND SIR,please note the timing of my chart..it was just before 2 pm,,right ?..now nifty reached 5077 from 5035,after i posted my chart,so there was enough time still left to cover shorts,for whom,who believed my tuesday comments.

MY SYSTEM BEING TASTED ON OPTIONS 1 MIN CHARTS

my system

said fall till friday...lvl of support 4924....market doesnt allow...lvls ...which every one knows..ask any one and every one..knew, that 4917--4924 was support..will market come there ??????plain n simple no..but my system?? catches fast.

NIFTY LVLS TO WATCH IF BELOW 4924

For nifty 4924 is an important support,,below which 4870-4810 zone is crucial.

A note on 5330 tgt::: we have recently seen two big moves on either side..both were a little bit more severe than my expectations.so there are two clear possibilities,,

1. we may have a lower top in place at 5085

2. we may have to see a higher bottom ,for the rally from 4536--5085.

so a higher target is possible, only above 5100 approx.coz. that will confirm a higher bottom.else we may even break 4536 or ,we could be in a small triangle formation,with its two legs already over.

a threat to the higher targets, exists in the probable HEAD & SHOULDER pattern,in sbi as being shown in the chart, here.

correction starts as EXPECTED

I SAID,even earlier as my max tgt would be 5052...bt nifty dragged a bit more..but as i expected yesterday...a correction seems to have set in..watch 4920 first,and i will be updating my lvls to watch and enter long..if entering long would be advisable.

5330 next nifty target..if 4860 holds.

expect a small correction from here,,and if the correction remains mild,upto friday..we will be reaching new highs for nifty around 5330.nifty lvl to watch if any short term correction stsrts is 4860.buy on dips till that lvl holds, should be the trading strategy.

Waiting for clues

The rally can go upto the 78.2% retracement lvl..which for nifty is around 5052....although yesterdays high wasnt TOO far away.........

a look at the intraday structure suggests a possible rising wedge,,,which is supported by a very STEEP trendline,i think such steep trend, suggests a pause to the current rally again.

one should wait for the decisive breach of the trendline.

i will keep patience and wait for atleast a higher bottom to enter long.

SELL CALLS FROM MY SYSTEM ,WORKING ??

Nifty retraced from 61.8% retracement lvl of the entire fall,yesterday.
a breach below 4845...will have tgts of 4812--4792----4750.
this fall ,as there are sell calls on eod charts on many stocks + eod candle reversal patterns on many pivotals........could be a higher bottom, for the rise from 4536 to 4947
or
yesterdays top 4947 could be a lower top.
let us not decide , what it is and better, let markets decide ,what it wants to say.
remember SPEED THRILLS BUT KILLS and ITS BETTER LATE THAN NEVER.

4853 achieved and even crossed

The rally from supports mentioned,here few days back ,is little too strong ,than my expectations,simply put, my imagination or vision has limitations this time around.thats market for me,,,THE SUPER POWER.
We are at cross-roads,,the so called relief rally (a mistake?),,can prove to be something else.
but here again,atleast expect a higher bottom in place (if todays highs are not LOWER TOP,at all)..
so, i will watch 4845 forst tobe broken,than 4774 and than 4753.
all in all,,let the markets decide, what it wants do deliever.

confusing week-end

am doing technical analysis,,and my sole purpose is to predict futuristic moves,essentially i am dealing with probabilities only.
the reason behind describing this is the confusion ,charts are presenting as on today.
1) the sell off was very heavy,in most of the pivotals,but still counters like hdfc,hdfc bank,sterlite,tata motors, tata steel,have witnessed strong supports at lower rates,although,i m not saying that in the first down leg itself ,we can witness sell offs in all counters,but still,the bounce back in these counters was a little bit more to my comfort,looking at the down-side tgts.
2)my system is generating buy calls on weekly charts on some stocks and on the same stocks daily charts,its giving sell calls !!!!,this is indeed confusing.
3)this fall can be a pull-back only to the NECKLINE of weekly bullish inverted h&s
4) but markets cant give a vertical rise,straight away,after such heavy sell offs EVEN IF we are to witness newer highs.

my conclusion is:::we will witness atleast a taste of the recent bottom (may even breach them for a day),,or we may have a higher bottom in place above 4536(a fall will come upto 4650 around approx),and if the fall that i anticipate will be a higher bottom than ,we will have a 3 wave (abc) corrective rise,and than breaching recent lows.
a rising channel possibilities, adds to the confusion.

sensex resistance lvl works

watch inverted hns in nifty

4781 duly achieved

as mentioned , yesterday..one imp tgt was 4781,,whcih was reached,next is 4853..may not be reached too soon.but should reach, in a day or two.

looking at daily charts..this at PRESENT seems tobe a rise, to form lower top,after a heavy sell off..but the picture can change.we will track closely, how nifty and sensex behaves at resistance zone , mentioned in charts here.

a smart rally indeed, from supports

matching supports as per daily charts and than using intraday levels for confirmation of a move , is what i have learnt.

4536--4570 were supports as per daily charts....and 4619 was one intraday lvl..so a sustained move above 4619,confirmed that the supports are working.

anybody , who just simply used my lvl..could have easily gained ,a huge nifty points..

a relief rally,has started..with tgt of 4781----4853 as of now.

nifty fibbonacci supports

a sustained move and especially a close above 4619 could trigger a relief rall from today..most probably a lower top formation against 5182.

HOW MY TRADING SYSTEM SUGGESTED THAT SUPPORTS WONT WORK

A SIGNIFICANT TOP CONFIRMED

ON 24th october ,i wrote this

"Level wise, 4910-4876 are trend decider LEVEL for nifty.

supports will EMERGE from these levels..it will be very crucial to see ,how some weaker stocks behave when nifty takes supports.also ,it will be very very important to see, what sort of a pattern developes from 4876-4910..and ALSO how MY SYSTEM BEHAVES ,in the bounce back.all in all markets are at a very important and interesting stage ,readers should be very very cautious in creating buying positions at nifty supports.""

the following chart, clears the picture how my system behaved, on intraday charts,once nifty went below an all important lvl of 5013 and than below 4876-4910 lvls...remember all levels were supposed tobe support zones, and my system defines, in real time,how strong those supports are behaving.

i also clearly mentioned that ,there are all signs of an important top in place,,and now i think that 5182,will not be crossed in a hurry ,from now on.

THE big question is ,,where will the support emerge ?? since, the fall being very severe in the first place,my view is that there are all chances that the whole rally started from 2512 nifty lvl in march-09 has been ended,but as per basic dow theory too, we are yet to see a significant and clearly visible lower top on daily charts. so as shown in other charts supports should emerge from around 4670--4570 area,tomorrow if it opens up with a huge gap down,and than if nifty closes above 4670-4702, it will be the first indication of a corrective rally,which will go and make a lower top.

4570-4670 are has been some fibonacci supoorts and also the all important 89 day ema, currently is around this lvl.

here are few more updated charts, which i used to predict such an important top, almost precisely on the topping day.one very interesting observation is a top head&shoulder pattern on roc indictor on weekly chart of sensex.