As i described the other day,and as clearly visible on this line chart,we have seen four heavy sell-offs ,starting from june-2009,,all were seemingly digested,and indices continued to make new highs.
Although as i mentioned in one of my early april-10, article that,each time nifty made a new high, but the latest high was just 100-150 nifty points,each time.and that OBSERVATION was the key ,when i said one upper target is 5398.i clearly said it would be very interesting to see what nifty does at 5398.than on 7th april nifty made high of 5399,and next day ,i said its a top.
In my opinion,in last one year,there is a big big long term portfolio churning have been done ,by big players.
AS i mentioned here , a few days back, that this fourth sell-off is looking different.nifty took support at 200day ma in jan-10 sell off, and even a few days back, it took support at that average.
BUT, the bounce back ,doesnt seem tobe too strong this time.it was larsen--sbi show.
stocks like wipro-tcs,,tata motors-maruti,,sterlite-tata steel,,continued to witness, heavy selling on EVERY RISE.
For sensex the low on 17th was near about 200 dema and was exact 61.8% of the last rise, started pre-budget.
NOW ,a weak rise from such an important levels(average+fibonacci),,can be dangerous.if the support DOESNT work than, results can be devastating.
FOR any upside, sensex must produce a weekly close above 17400, nifty above 5213.
IF not, the whole phase of last several months will turn out tobe a ROUNDING TOP and thus a distribution phase.
No comments:
Post a Comment